The Best and Worst of Theo Epstein

Some call him a boy genius, some call him way overrated. He brought the first World Series pennant in 86 years to Boston in 2004, but some argue that the roster was largely still Dan Duquette’s, and that luck had a lot to do with it. He’s signed and drafted some really great talent, yet he’s also botched a few trades and some free agent signings. Does Theo indeed deserve a lot of credit for what he’s done, or is he just an average GM, as some believe?

Young Einstein?
On one hand, he is a smart stathead general manager, who graduated from Yale, holds a law degree, and was the youngest GM ever when he was hired at age 28 just a few years ago. His love of OPS and power arms is well known, and he hired noted sabermetrician Bill James to work for the Red Sox. The numbers tell him to go after young players in their prime (25-29 years old), and the generous payroll in Boston allows him to do it. It’s hard to argue with the results: the Red Sox have reached the playoffs every year except 2006 under his management, and they have gotten younger and deeper in the process. He negotiates hard, knows what he wants and gets it: case in point, he has been tracking Julio Lugo and J.D. Drew for years. He also targeted Edgar Renteria way before 2005. He surrounds himself with good baseball people, most recently Allard Baird, former GM of the Royals, and handles players well.

Overrated?
Yes, he’s been good, but working with the second highest payroll in baseball, he better be good. Who couldn’t build a good team if you can potentially grab the top free agent in any given year? Theo made some key contributions, but the 2004 World Champion team was largely in place when he got here. Theo and his team have caught some flak for being too aloof and businesslike, and have had some trouble dealing with certain GMs. He is perceived as a guy who always asks for too much in return, and because deals don’t go through, he likes “value” signings (translated: injury risks). There have been several other signings and trades that have left people scratching their heads. Matt Clement. Edgar Renteria. Chad Bradford. Many of these players failed miserably (which, to be fair, is easy to point out in retrospect). And he’s traded away a small contingent of players who seem to be flourishing elsewhere: Freddie Sanchez was the NL batting champ in 2006. Cla Meredith had a streak of 33.2 scoreless innings for the Padres in 2006. Josh Bard hit .333/.404/.522 for the Padres last year, too.

The Best Moves
David Ortiz, free agent. In 2003, the Twins had given up on the swing and miss slugger, but Epstein saw potential available at a bargain basement price. Five years later, Big Papi is competing for MVP honors in the Red Sox lineup.

Curt Schilling for Casey Fossum, Brandon Lyon, Jorge de la Rosa and Michael Goss. Ever hear of any of these guys? Didn’t think so. Schilling’s bloody sock was the battle cry of the victorious Red Sox in the 2004 ALCS.

Mark Loretta for Doug Mirabelli. Loretta started for the Sox and made the All-Star team, while Mirabelli was benched and eventually traded back to the Red Sox. You do the math.

The Worst Moves
Matt Clement, free agent. Clement’s great stuff attracted the Red Sox, but his 4 year, $40 million contract is still a big albatross. He’s not pitching now due to injury, but we’re not sure he want him to pitch for us, even if he could.

Edgar Renteria, free agent. The Sox could have re-signed Orlando Cabrera, but they paid big bucks for Renteria instead. Despite a fair year at the plate, his failings in the field and buckling under pressure made him a big scapegoat in Boston.

Doug Mirabelli for Cla Meredith and Josh Bard. After getting such a good deal for trading Mirabelli away, why would Theo pull the trigger on this one? This was a panic move for someone who could catch Tim Wakefield’s knuckleball. Meredith is setting records with scoreless inning streaks, and Bard’s bat appears to be coming around to complement his defensive skills.

Jeremy Giambi for Josh Hancock. Epstein traded a promising young pitcher for a guy who could get on base a little and was a trainwreck in the outfield. Giambi, supposedly in the best shape of his life, spent a lot of time on the DL and was shut down in August for the year. He was released after the season.

Jury’s Still Out
Wily Mo Pena for Bronson Arroyo. So far, Cincinnati has the better end of the bargain by a significant margin. But Pena has shown some potential, and may yet make this one worthwhile.

Coco Crisp, David Riske and Josh Bard for Andy Marte, Kelly Shoppach and Guillermo Mota. It’s tempting to say that Epstein and his staff botched this one, as Crisp has yet to do much in Boston. But I’m willing to put this deal here for now, because of his three good years in Cleveland before the trade and the injury.

Notes: Even though some people mock the Byung-Hyun Kim acquisition, there was a stretch where he performed very well when we needed a closer, and kept the season alive for us. The Josh Beckett deal took place during Theo’s brief hiatus in the 2005/2006 offseason, so he won’t be evaluated for that one.

Conclusion
My opinion? I think Theo is neither of these extremes, but that he’s something between his fans and his critics. He’s an above-average GM, but not one of the top minds in the game. I still like Billy Beane for that title. Still, he’s a great guy and he’s done a very good job so far. No GM goes through his career without making some mistakes that come back and bite him. That shouldn’t make you afraid to make moves. One problem he’ll face as he likes to get 25-29 year olds is managing the 40 man roster. It’s hard to maintain depth and not lose good players through waivers and the Rule 5 draft (we already lost Lenny DiNardo this off-season). With more experience, I don’t see why he can’t rise to greatness as a GM.