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Charley Walters of the Pioneer Press writes today that the Boston Red Sox have the leading offer for Johan Santana thus far. According to him, the Sox are offering four players for one guaranteed year of perhaps the best left-handed pitcher in the last decade. The purported deal would send Coco Crisp, Jon Lester, Jed Lowrie and Justin Masterson to the Twins in exchange for Santana. Part of the stipulations would be that the Sox get a window to try and negotiate a contract extension with Santana, who could be looking for 6 or even 7 years at $20-25M per season.
If this report is true, the Sox could acquire Santana without breaking up the big league club at all, no small feat. Lowrie is very talented, but with Julio Lugo locked up for three more years and Dustin Pedroia having five years until free agency, the middle infield looks to be set. Masterson had an awesome run in the middle of last season, but his ceiling is probably as a #3 starter. If this deal gets done, Boston could feature perhaps one of the best rotations from top to bottom in baseball history. Seriously. But don’t break out the champagne just yet. The Yankees are still in the bidding, mind you, so don’t be surprised if the Twins take this offer and go demand more from them. New York is in desperate need of a front-line starter (unlike us), and could give in to Minnesota’s demands. Theo Epstein is probably counting on this to happen.
Theo has set a deadline for the negotiations with Minnesota, and wants to try to get a deal done before the Winter Meetings on Dec 3. Minnesota made a six player blockbuster deal yesterday, and acquired a badly needed power prospect in Delmon Young. While Young is capable of playing center, the Twins are used to having Torii Hunter there, and could want a better defensive option, thus making Crisp desirable.
All the talk right now is about Johan Santana. It’s unprecedented that a team would shop a player like that in the offseason, a true ace (and a lefty to boot) still in his prime years.
Santana has a great track record, still has every inch of break on that nasty slider, and has no health concerns, having pitched well over 200 innings in each of the past four seasons. Despite that, he ranks 50th out of 302 pitchers in Baseball Prospectus’ Pitcher Abuse Points scale, meaning his arm has a good chance of staying intact. He’s good friends with former Twin David Ortiz, and that could work in our favor.
On the other hand, Santana has one year left at $13M, then will require a $20-25M annual contract for at least five years. Probably not a bad investment, mind you, but one which could make the payroll kind of tight for a while. So if we have to give up too much to get him, we have to be able to just walk away. The problem is that the Twins could just as well hang on to Santana and take two high draft picks in 2009. With him on their squad and Francisco Liriano returning, Minnesota could have an incredible rotation next season. So we have to offer them more than they could get in that scenario, or else they have no reason to do the deal.
Then there’s Oakland’s Dan Haren. He had a 3.07 ERA last season, and his 56.4 VORP last season is comparable to Santana’s 57.7. He’s younger (27 vs 29), and the kind of big (6′ 5″), power righty the Sox like. I would not dare to argue he’s as talented as Santana, but he’s locked up for the next three years for just over $16M. That’s some real value there. If I’m going to trade away a Jacoby Ellsbury or a Clay Buchholz, I’d want to get that in return. Oakland needs a centerfielder, and they could use bullpen help. Would Billy Beane consider a trade for Haren involving Ellsbury and Manny Delcarmen?
I think Theo and the front office are keenly aware of this. I also think that we have an ace, and we’re happy with Josh Beckett. It’s the *ahem* Yankees who need a true #1. So we will hang around and drive up the price for Santana, and then maybe we can get in on Haren if the price is right. I think he will probably stick with the Twins for 2008, or New York could possibly trade away 2-3 premium young players for him. But if Brian Cashman is allowed to stick to his plan and not trade any of his prospects, there is an off chance that the Twins, desperate for a CF, could cave and we end up with him for say, Jon Lester, Coco Crisp, and one other player. Now that deal I’d do 100 times out of 100.
It’s been a while, but as we gear up for the Winter Meetings next week, the Twins have named their asking price for two-time Cy Young winner Johan Santana. After Santana declined their extension offer of 4 years and $80M, the Twins are trying to maximize their return on him before he walks. Santana does, however, hold a partial to full no-trade clause (conflicting reports on what it says exactly), so he likely has to approve of any trade. Imagine a rotation spearheaded by Santana, Josh Beckett and Daisuke Matsuzaka. That top three could be legendary for a long time. There’s no question you would want to add a guy of his caliber, but the main question has been, how much would Santana cost to acquire?
John Heyman reports that Minnesota would want Jacoby Ellsbury AND either Clay Buchholz or Jon Lester in return for the prize lefty. From the Yankees, they are asking for Melky Cabrera and one of three pitching prospects: Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain or Ian Kennedy. In my mind, Ellsbury holds an edge over Cabrera because of his speed, better defense and (most importantly) less service time.
From our perspective, that is definitely asking too much for only one guaranteed year of Santana. He is signed for 2008 at about $13M, but is expected to require at least 5 years at $20+ million after that in order to re-sign. If I were Theo, I’d have to consider trading one of these three players, but not two of them. If I had to choose one, I’d say that Lester is the most expendable. Since the Twins are trying to acquire a centerfielder to replace Torii Hunter, no doubt the Sox will try to offer them a package including Coco Crisp. I could maybe see a deal with Lester, Crisp and another prospect happening. Failing that, trading Ellsbury and a lesser pitching prospect would not be a bad option.
The good thing for us is that we are not desperate for pitching. Our league-best rotation from 2007 is still intact, so we are not under any pressure to make a move. But with the Yankees in the bidding, we have to at least have a seat at the table. Heyman also mentions that the Mets, Dodgers, Angels and Mariners have shown interest in trading for Santana.
With the Rule 5 draft coming up, Chris Carter and Argenis Diaz were added to the 40-man roster to protect them from other teams. Carter is a fairly talented hitter who could compete for the backup first base job next season, and Diaz is a 20-year old shortstop who has flashed some promise at the single-A level. He was signed as an international free agent.
Theo Epstein is reportedly focusing on an extension for Terry Francona and bolstering the best bullpen in the majors last season.
The Sox apparently have interest in former Chicago Cub Kerry Wood as a possible setup man. Wood has not been able to pitch much the last three seasons due to various injuries, but still has his velocity and stuff working, from reports last year. With several teams inquiring on him, Wood could be looking at a two or three-year deal.
Boston also offered a one-year deal to Mike Timlin, though the details have not been revealed.
Now that the free agency situation is down pat, the Red Sox should consider a couple of people they need to look at for contract extensions.
Terry Francona, Manager
Tito is slated to make $1.75M in 2008, when his current contract expires. That’s not much for a manager who’s won two World Series. Francona is not the greatest game manager, I’ll say that, but as far as handling players and the difficult Boston sports media, I think he’s one of the best. And he goes along with the statheads in the front office. Based on those things alone, Boston needs to lock him up. The management should add three years to that contract, and pay him at least $3M per.
Jonathan Papelbon, Closer
Paps has already reached near-divine status in Boston, and flashed an ability to come up with MVP-caliber performances in the hottest of spotlights, but he earned just $426k last season. In order to keep him happy, the Sox should offer him a one-year deal for $1M, or possibly a longer-term contract to take them through arbitration.
After much speculation about Mike Lowell, it’s finally done. The Red Sox have agreed to a 3-year deal worth $12-13M per season, according to Rob Bradford.
This is great news for Red Sox Nation, as we get to keep the World Series MVP and team favorite at a price and term that is reasonable. I have to hand it to Theo, he really stuck to his guns on this one and it paid off big time. News outlets were reporting that Lowell had received several better offers, but other teams either denied the claims or withdrew their interest in the third baseman. Epstein could have panicked and offered more money or a fourth year, but he didn’t, and it was the right move for the team.
This is really the best scenario for both parties, as Lowell’s splits show how much he needs Fenway Park to sustain his career (.373/.418/.575 last year and .316/.375/.512 lifetime).
Now we let’s get on with this offseason, shall we?
Now that he’s officially a free agent, Mike Lowell has been offered a number of four-year deals, at least one of which falls in the $55-60M range. It is thought that the Yankees, Cardinals, Braves and Angels have all come calling. The Red Sox have not extended a better offer than their initial 3 years and $36M, and this all but ensures that Lowell will play with a new team in 2008.
It is very sad that we will be without Lowell’s leadership next season, but it’s not all bad. For Boston, this means that:
1) They will receive a first-round pick from the signing team and a sandwich pick for Lowell, who is a type-A free agent. You almost can’t blame Theo for choosing this route, given how well the Red Sox have drafted in recent years. Adding another Jacoby Ellsbury and Clay Buchholz to the organization would soften the loss of Lowell, yes.
2) We need to explore the free agent market or a trade to fill that hole at third. Here are three possible ways we could choose to fly:
Economy Class
There are a number of options the front office could employ to just plug the hole with what we already have. The Red Sox do not have anyone in their farm system ready to fill this hole. Jed Lowrie, a middle infielder, could be a possibility; but starting a rookie with zero experience AND moving positions on him? Oakland or Minnesota, sure. But I don’t see the Sox taking a risk like that.
The next best option would be to put Kevin Youkilis back at third base, and have Chris Carter and Brandon Moss compete for the first base job. This could work out, but it could also end up flopping big time. I don’t see a World Championship team with our payroll settling for this, either.
There are some third basemen available, but not good fits for our club. Among free agents, there is Mike Lamb (offensive option) and Pedro Feliz (defensive option). Lamb has the stick, but is just barely average at third, and hasn’t played there full-time since being a rookie in 2000. Feliz is a defensive genius and a right-handed batter with some pop, but his lifetime .288 OBP won’t fly in this organization.
Business Class
In a strange free agent year, there are realy no middle-class options at third this offseason, which means that Boston will have to look to trade. With the availability of a lot of big free agents in centerfield this offseason, it may take teams some time to realize that they aren’t going to be able to afford a Torii Hunter or an Andruw Jones. That makes Coco Crisp some mighty tasty trade bait, and he might fetch us one of these middle-of-class guys in return.
Scott Rolen was a perennial All-Star until injury severely limited two of his last three seasons. He’s got 3 years left on his contract at $12M/year (coincidence that this is exactly what the Sox offered Lowell?), which makes him scary to most teams, but not the Red Sox. The Cards are said to be averse to eating any money from his contract, and Theo would oblige if they lower the asking price just a bit. I like Rolen as a good match; he’s a right-handed veteran power bat who plays excellent defense. He’s a bit of a risk, but his lifetime .372 OBP is a nice fit, and he’s actually one year younger than Lowell. The Cardinals want starting pitching in return; would St. Louis take some package including Julian Tavarez, who is locked in for less than $4M, or would we consider dealing Jon Lester?
Some have suggested that Garrett Atkins might be available. While the 28-year old slugger poses an interesting option, at least two writers say that the Rox are not going to trade him this offseason (standard disclaimer here about being blown away by an offer).
The Chicago White Sox have two players who can play third in Joe Crede and Josh Fields, and Crede’s name has come up in trade talks already this offseason. The 30-year old righty plays excellent defense, and has demonstrated some power, though he missed most of last season with an injury. His career .259/.305/.446 line is not that encouraging, but he did have a great 2006 and the White Sox could be interested in Crisp. Crede made about $5M in 2007, is arbitration eligible and under control of Chicago.
Yet another player that has been mentioned is Texas’ Hank Blalock. The Rangers are seeking a good return on the 27-year old, who has one year left on his contract at $6M, and a $6.2M option for 2009. Blalock has a .273/.337/.462 career line and has been about league average on defense the past three years. Texas is another team that has shown a lot of interest in Coco.
First Class
Then there are the big names, the ones who will cost us, either now or in the future.
Alex Rodriguez needs no introduction. The guy has said so many things about what he wants and who he wants to play for that I don’t care what he says anymore. The only thing that hasn’t changed is his egomaniacal need to become the highest paid athlete ever. First the Yankees wouldn’t touch him, but then neither would anyone else at $350M, so the Yanks have come crawling back on their hands and knees. Word is he’s nearly ready to sign a new 10-year, $275M deal with a lot of incentives to stay in pinstripes. If the price had come down to 8 years and $225M or so, I think the Sox should have got him. But, I’m also kind of relieved he won’t be playing here.
Then there’s Miguel Cabrera, the 25-year old phenom who hits everything and eats everything in sight. He’s got two more years under control (at about $11M and $15M), and then would become a free agent. The Marlins are asking for four premium prospects in return for Cabrera, and they’re likely to get two and a half or three from either the Angels or the Dodgers. Cabrera is a butcher at third, and would play at first base if he came to Boston. However, with the Fish asking for Buchholz, Ellsbury AND Lester, I am not optimistic.
Outside the box
If the Sox choose, they could pursue first basemen with the idea of shifting Youk to third. This opens up a huge realm of possibilities, including Richie Sexson, Carlos Pena, Conor Jackson and some old Epstein favorites, including Todd Helton and Ryan Shealy.
UPDATE: Could Lowell come back?
Multiple reports have surfaced suggesting that all those four-year offers never really were offered, and with the Yankees ready to re-sign A-Rod, Lowell could indeed come back to Boston. The Yankees say that they would consider putting Lowell at first base if they sign him, but I don’t see why they want him that badly. I think they are just trying to up the price for the Red Sox.
Most people had the Cy Young Award narrowed down to either C.C. Sabathia or Josh Beckett, and a strong end-of-the year performance by Sabathia was enough to seal the deal, as he earned 19 of 28 first-place votes. Sabathia had a slightly better ERA, more innings pitched, and more total strikeouts, mainly because Beckett missed a couple of weeks with a finger avulsion. Yes, Beckett only made 30 starts, but in my opinion, he was still the better pitcher, as he managed a 145 ERA+ as opposed to Sabathia’s 142, and had a much higher K/9 rate of 8.70 to 7.81. He managed 20 wins in fewer starts than Sabathia needed to get 19. He also pitched in a tougher home park than Sabathia (1.177 run park factor to 1.120 this season), which more than makes up for the small ERA differential. And if there were any lingering question, Beckett’s postseason performance (4-0, 1.20 ERA with two decisive wins over Sabathia) proved who really deserved the award.
But who cares about facts and numbers and stuff like that, when we have our eyes to trust and our impressions to look to? Congrats, chunky monkey. You still had a great season, just not as good as Josh B’s.
He’s only 5′ 9″, but hit .317 with 39 doubles to lead all rookies in those categories. That batting average was a major league record for rookie second basemen. He was second in rookie OBP at .380, and third in runs with 86. Had he avoided that putrid April, there’s no telling what he could have accomplished. Not only that, but Pedroia was rock-solid at second base with a .990 fielding percentage. Everyone remembers the play that saved Clay’s no-hitter and a handful of other great plays at second. He had two home runs in the postseason, helping to clinch the Cleveland series and start off the World Series with a bang. Oh, and did I mention that Dustin Pedroia has been playing since September 10 with a cracked (and often painful) hamate bone in his left wrist? Pedroia has written himself into Red Sox history with a superb rookie season.
I don’t tend to put a lot of stock in these post-season awards; but it wasn’t hard for the Red Sox rookie to garner the overwhelming majority of the vote. Pedroia got 24 of 28 first place votes, winning the award in a landslide. Delmon Young and Brian Bannister didn’t have to perform in the limelight of Fenway Park, and endure a month of people calling for them to be benched or sent to the minors. And they didn’t have the pressure of a pennant race that got awfully close by the end.
Congratulations, Pedey. Looks like the voters got it right this time.
BTW, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Hideki Okajima also showed up 4th and 6th in the voting. Nice crop of rookie talent, eh?
