You are currently browsing the monthly archive for December 2007.
Some of the more interesting players who were non-tendered last night:
Mark Prior, SP. Would he ever consider setup duty for a contender?
Kiko Calero, RP. 33-year old has been well above average except for last year. Might have a little left.
Dallas McPherson, 3B. Former high prospect is just 27 and could provide some bench pop.
Despite the Twins’ hesitation to pull the trigger, it still looks like the best offer on the table for Johan Santana belongs to Boston. The Star Tribune reports today that the package of Jacoby Ellsbury, Jed Lowrie, Justin Masterson and one other minor leaguer appears to be the most desirable to Bill Smith and Minnesota thus far. Theo and his team have agreed to an open dialogue with the Twins, allowing them to pursue other options, such as a deal with the Mets or the Angels, while this deal sits on the table.
I was pretty mad when the Twins walked away from the table at the Winter Meetings, but it seems that the press was making it sound more like a done deal than it really was. So after the anger has subsided, let’s look at this deal, and see if we are really giving up too much.
What we are getting
29-year old pitcher Johan Santana, perhaps the best lefty in the Major Leagues the past 5 seasons. He’s been healthy and consistent, without too much wear on his arm, despite well over 200 IP the last four seasons. Adding to his durability is that he’s not a pitcher who depends on velocity to be effective. Santana is a fastball/changeup/slider guy, and the secret to his success is the changeup. With good mechanics and control, these pitchers tend to age relatively gracefully (see Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux, Trevor Hoffman). Santana has been worth more than 100 pitcher runs above replacement the past four years, so even if he slips some, that means his WARP will be about 8 next season. He should be good for that much at least until age 30, if not 32. Figure a 5-year, $130M extension, and we’re talking projected numbers like this:
Year WARP Salary 2008 8 13M 2009 8 26M 2010 7.5 26M 2011 7.5 26M 2012 7 26M 2013 7 26M Total 45 143M
Let’s not be naive here; he’d be superman to stay healthy all those years, so let’s subtract out, say, 2011 due to injury. That leaves us at 37.5 WARP over 6 seasons, an average of 6.25. Some pitchers who were worth about that this season: Roy Halladay, Justin Verlander, Chien-Ming Wang, Joe Blanton. Not a bad list, and this is a fairly conservative estimate in my book. Considering we’d be pairing him with Josh Beckett and backing him up with Daisuke Matsuzaka (who will be better this year and beyond, BTW), Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester, what kind of rotation do you think we’ll have? All of these guys are considered present or potential aces. And let’s not talk about who to leave out of the rotation in a short playoff series.
Do we trade Ellsbury?
This is a huge question. We really don’t know what Ellsbury will turn out to be. He’s shown that he can hit Major League pitching, and that he’s a confident, big game player. Right now he’s a plus centerfielder who has the skill to become a Gold Glover in time. He’s blazingly fast, and turns routine plays into impact plays. He’ll leg out so many squibbers and short doubles it’ll make your head spin. And he could probably steal upwards of 30-40 bases, if given the green light. But Ellsbury does have a weak throwing arm. He doesn’t have much power to speak of. And he’s got a couple of (fixable?) holes in his swing. If I had to give a ceiling for Ellsbury based on his minor league performance, I might say something like .300/.380/.430 with a lot of doubles and stolen bases. If he achieves that, he’ll be a great leadoff hitter. But he’ll be just 24 next season, and won’t likely reach that for three more years or so. I might expect something more like .270/.340/.390 next season, almost league average for an AL centerfielder (.272/.340/.414 in 2007).
If we trade Ellsbury, that means Coco Crisp will likely stay in centerfield for 2008. Despite his below average bat, Crisp still posted a WARP1 of 6.0, mostly on the strength of his defense. I can’t see Ellsbury surpassing that next season, though he probably will in two to three more years. Crisp may just play out his contract until prospect Ryan Kalish is ready. Kalish is a very similar player to Ellsbury (some think he has more upside), but will be just 20 years old next season. With such young players, it’s hard to tell what they will become. There’s also the prospect that Boston will be able to make a move for another centerfielder in the future, or draft a player out of college.
Is including Lowrie and Masterson too much?
Coming out of Stanford, Lowrie is a pretty heady player. Though likened to Dustin Pedroia by some, he is not the same; he is physically bigger, a switch-hitter with better gap power, and has a better throwing arm than Pedey. He probably will not be a Gold Glove shortstop, but he should be above average. He hits for average, and works counts very well, making him a potential #2 hitter. Losing this guy does hurt some, as the Sox don’t have a lot of Major League-ready middle infield farmhands. But with our pitching prospects, we can conceivably trade for for whatever we need.
Masterson is a good prospect, and his sinker projects well to the Major Leagues. He will be a fairly good pitcher, if not a very good one. But the Sox rotation is overflowing as it is, and realistically, it will not hurt us that much to lose him.
A good offer
In conclusion, it’s still worth it to get Santana. And this deal is worthwhile for the Twins, too. Even though they wanted Jon Lester too, Boston is offering a leadoff and #2 hitter to Minnesota for their ace, and Masterson could join their rotation in a year or two. Only Ellsbury has any Major League service time, so the Twins will get a lot of mileage from these three players; it is a good deal for them. If you ask me, pitching is not their big need right now. They free up salary to extend Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer, maybe sign a big bat, and they can be competitive for some time. The Sox will likely have to include one other low-level prospect from A-ball, and that is acceptable to obtain Santana.
Remember when the Red Sox got a 24-year old left-handed pitcher from Oakland not too long ago? Jay Marshall was placed back on waivers, and guess who claimed him back? Billy Beane is sharp, I tell ya.
It’s not a huge loss, as Marshall was not ready to pitch for this club anyway. He is a very tall lefty with some interesting potential. The move frees up another spot on the 40-man roster for Boston.
Well, Hank Steinbrenner’s so-called “deadline” has come and gone, and his constant yapping to the press has Bill Smith and the Minnesota front office steamed. Despite having the leading offer a few days ago, Steinbrenner has admitted that he thinks the chances of the Yankees landing Johan Santana are now slim. Multiple reports say they are turning their focus to other pitchers. This development has come as the Yankees continue to refuse to include prospect Ian Kennedy as part of the package with Phil Hughes and Melky Cabrera.
Gordon Edes thinks that a deal could be very close. The two teams were talking past midnight, and are reviewing the medical records of Lester and Santana. It’s now thought that the Twins are considering two offers from the Red Sox:
1) Jon Lester, Coco Crisp, Jed Lowrie, Justin Masterson
2) Jacoby Ellsbury, Jed Lowrie, Justin Masterson
It’s possible that they might like Michael Bowden better than Masterson, and ask for that substitution, but Boston appears to be the driver’s seat again. As much as I hate seeing Lester or Ellsbury go, I still think making this trade is the right move for the team. We have a lot of pitching prospects right on the cusp, so they are expendable, and our rotation slots are quickly filling up with potential Cy Young candidates. And even though we have far less talent for a position players perspective, Coco Crisp was good enough to take us to the playoffs last year, and we do have another very talented, very speedy centerfield prospect in Ryan Kalish. So even that would not be the end of the world, though I would still sigh and wonder what could have been every time I see the Twins play.
But once we make the playoffs, a four-man rotation of Santana, Beckett, Dice-K and Buchholz spells W-O-R-L-D S-E-R-I-E-S, maybe many times over. That might ease the pain just a little bit.
Lest you worry about team chemistry or jealousy, Curt Schilling has also weighed in favorably on making this move.
At least one organization thinks that Terry Francona is the 2007 Manager of the Year. Congratulations, Tito! I think it’s a great honor to be chosen by Baseball America, because the people there are so knowledgeable about the sport.
Francona definitely did an incredible job this season. It’s one thing to claw back from a deficit, but it’s also real tough to keep your guys playing hard when you’ve got a 15 game lead in the division. I don’t remember hearing about any real clubhouse issues all season long, and a lot of that is due to Francona’s even keel and handling of the players and management.
Gordon Edes confirms it; the Sox have extended the 42-year old-to-be Mike Timlin for what looks to be his last season at $3M. Timlin is definitely not the pitcher he has been the last few seasons, but he ended the season on a strong note (2.64 ERA in 30 1/3 innings) and deserves another shot. I don’t view him as a seventh or eighth inning option anymore, not with Manny Delcarmen and Hideki Okajima around and the Sox looking to add one more setup guy, but he’s still a valuable contributor and team leader in the bullpen.
The Sox can easily afford this contract, so I like the deal. Welcome back, Mike.
