Lugo blames 2007 on stomach parasites

The first year of Julio Lugo’s 4-year deal was a disappointment by everyone’s standards. Lugo hit a meager .237/.294/.349 despite having a career .271/.333/.395 line. Now he’s told Rob Bradford that a stomach parasite sapped him of his strength last season. Now he’s ten pounds heavier and feeling strong and back to normal, and reports are that he’s noticeably stronger and buffer looking. Hitting coach Dave Magadan vouches that he’s hitting with more pop compared to last spring; let’s hope his conditioning helps him this season.

Sox one-hit BC, 24-0 in seven innings

Yeah, it was a good old-fashioned whupping. Check out the box score and you’ll see what I mean. Eric Campbell managed the only hit of the game for Boston College, a single off reliever Javier Lopez (don’t worry, Campbell bats righty).

Josh Beckett whiffed four of the six hitters he faced, throwing 18 of 25 pitches for strikes. Basically, you could have put mannequins in there and they’d have done almost as well. Every Red Sox pitcher fanned at least one, and Manny Delcarmen and Bryan Corey looked good finishing it out. Sox pitchers issued zero walks, which is great.

George Kottaras went 2-3 with two doubles, and Tony Granadillo hit a grand slam in the 4th. Lots of players got some at-bats, things are looking great. It’s kind of hard to argue with 24 runs in seven.

The Sox face Northeastern University at 6PM, then travel to face the Twins tomorrow at Hammond Stadium.

BA Top 100 released

Baseball America’s annual top 100 prospects list has been released. Seven Red Sox make the list:

#4 Clay Buchholz, SP
#13 Jacoby Ellsbury, CF
#40 Lars Anderson, 1B
#64 Justin Masterson, SP
#73 Jed Lowrie, SS
#94 Michael Bowden, SP
#96 Ryan Kalish, CF

That’s a very nice turnout and validation of our farm system. Most of these guys pop up on other lists as well, but it’s nice to see Kalish getting some love.

Jon Lester no longer qualifies as a rookie, so he’s graduated from this list; otherwise he’d definitely be in there.

Be sure to check out my On the Horizon series for a fuller treatment of these and other exciting Red Sox prospects.

2008 Spring Training: Boston College and Northeastern U

The Sox have their trip to the White House today, then it all begins. It’s finally time for the guys to hit the diamond again, and aren’t we all anticipating seeing Josh Beckett throw again? It’s been way too long.

Tomorrow’s lineups:

Game 1: Boston College

1. Jacoby Ellsbury
2. Dustin Pedroia
3. David Ortiz
4. Mike Lowell
5. Jason Varitek
6. Kevin Youkilis
7. Julio Lugo
8. Bobby Kielty
9. Brandon Moss

Scheduled to pitch: Josh Beckett, Kyle Snyder, Javier Lopez, Manny Delcarmen, Bryan Corey

Game 2: Northeastern University

1. Coco Crisp
2. Alex Cora
3. J.D. Drew
4. Manny Ramirez
5. Sean Casey
6. Chris Carter
7. Doug Mirabelli
8. Jed Lowrie
9. Matt Ginter

Scheduled to pitch: Justin Masterson, Craig Hansen, Michael Bowden, Craig Breslow, Hunter Jones, Kyle Jackson

I can’t wait to see this. You can already see where management is leaning in terms of Ellsbury/Crisp, can’t you?

Sox to sign Bartolo Colon

Theo Epstein has a penchant for injury-prone (read: bargain) pitching, we all know that. Last year, there was Eric Gagne, and the year before that, Keith Foulke. Then Wade Miller. This is not a problem, so long as the price for these pitchers is bargain enough. Now the Red Sox have reportedly come to terms with Bartolo Colon on a minor league contract.

This move was apparently made to address the rotation depth after the loss of Curt Schilling. I have to say I like the move because it risks basically nothing, and Colon is a very good pitcher when he’s right, but it’s not exactly the fit I was hoping for. Here’s why:

1. Everyone else has passed on him. We are not the only ones to have considered Colon as a value signing, not by a long shot. Lots of teams have kicked the tires and watched him throw, and moved on to such aces as Tomokazu Ohka and Josh Fogg. Most recently, the Cardinals and White Sox have said no thanks after seeing him throw and not top 91 MPH on the gun. As more of a stuff guy than a control guy, this is concerning. Colon was seeking a two-year deal somewhere at the beginning of the offseason, and now he’s taking a minor league deal with no guaranteed money on a team where’s he virtually guaranteed no major league innings? Colon is desperate here, and that doesn’t bode well for this signing.
2. We need someone right now, not in July. Colon is definitely not 100%, and he may not even be 75% at this time. He could conceivably get healthy enough to contribute in a few months. But the reason there’s a vacancy is because Clay Buchholz will likely start at Pawtucket. However, I think we’d all like to see him plugged into the rotation by June/July. There is also a slight chance (though diminishing by the week, it seems) that Schilling will be back not too long after the All-Star Break. So adding a pitcher who won’t be ready to contribute until there’s no need for him anymore makes little sense to me.

I’d be surprised if Colon could contribute at the Major League Level anytime soon, and that’s what makes this signing kind of insignificant to me right now. To me, this move is a good depth move, but it doesn’t address the immediate problem we face, unless Buchholz starts the year in the rotation and is shut down early (which makes even less sense to me). There’s not much to complain about, as he won’t eat up space on the 25-man or the 40-man rosters, and he won’t make any real money unless he’s called up. As they say, these things tend to work themselves out. Who knows? Maybe Schil is lost for the year, and Colon comes up and takes the spot of Tim Wakefield or some other injured starter in the rotation later on.

Francona extended

Well, it got done. Three years, $12M plus two club options. A well-deserved raise. You guys already know that I fully approve of this deal.

2008 Preview: First pitching reports from Farrell

Now that hitters are just beginning to step in against our pitching staff, pitching coach John Farrell had some comments to make. In summary:

• Josh Beckett is just as sharp and focused as last spring.
• Manny Delcarmen fans, rejoice. He’s looking great so far, conditioning-wise as well as on the mound.
• Jon Lester’s added weight is really helping him compared to last season, especially in the lower half of his body.
• David Aardsma is impressing with his stuff, but control remains an issue.
• Hideki Okajima has dubbed his new pitch the “doki-doki”, and it apparently works against right-handed and left-handed batters.

2008 Preview: Ellsbury or Crisp?

Both Theo Epstein and Terry Francona spoke this week about Coco Crisp being the “incumbent” centerfielder and the starter for the 2008 season. This despite an unspoken assumption by everyone that the job belongs to one Jacoby Ellsbury.

Some have speculated that this is just a ploy to try and build up trade value for Crisp by showing that the Sox still have faith in him as a player. I find that to be certainly possible. But it’s not just the management that thinks Crisp could actually be the better option for this year (though Patrick Sullivan admits that it’s close).

Here’s what the statheads have to say:

		Crisp		Ellsbury
Marcel:		.275/.332/.405	.308/.365/.473
PECOTA:		.278/.338/.407	.287/.347/.396
Bill James:	.276/.335/.400	.320/.374/.436
CHONE:		.278/.338/.421	.299/.353/.418
ZiPS: 		.271/.333/.410	.297/.349/.392

It’s pretty clear that Ellsbury will likely be the better offensive player this season, while Crisp will edge him with the leather, at least for now. One other thing that should be pointed out: these projections are just weighted means in most cases; they don’t reflect that Ellsbury has a 33% PECOTA breakout rate, compared to just 17% for Crisp. That kind of quantifies what we all feel instinctively, that Ellsbury has way more “upside” at this stage in his career.

The last consideration is the impact who starts will have on the way the lineup looks. When Crisp plays, he will likely bat 7th, 8th or 9th. That means batting high OBP men Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis 1-2. On the other hand, Ellsbury will likely be utilized in the leadoff role, bumping Pedroia to #2, and freeing up Youkilis to bat 5th or 6th. I like the second option; imagine opposing pitchers having to face down Big Papi with Ellsbury dancing off first base. And he’ll be able to score from second on any base hit.

In some ways, I’d say this argument is an academic point, because regardless of who is the starter on Opening Day, Ellsbury will get his at-bats and he is the one who will be patrolling centerfield by October. My feeling is that they haven’t unloaded Crisp because they simply haven’t gotten a trade proposal they like. As soon as they do, he’s gone baby, gone.

Alright, let the arguments (discussion) begin.

Contract extension for Varitek in the works?

There’s been some discussions going on in the media recently about the Red Sox getting some contract extensions done before the season begins. I’m all for it, provided they are reasonable deals. Among the names I’ve heard as candidates for extensions include: Terry Francona, Jason Varitek and Jonathan Papelbon.

I listed these talks in order of importance. Francona is a great manager for the Sox. Is he the best in-game manager in baseball? No. But is he incredibly good at handling the players, the press, and the front office here? Absolutely. Without equal. So I say throw him a 3-4 year extension at about $3-4M per year. The Sox don’t overpay like some of the teams out there, and Francona gets a huge raise. Win-win.

Next up, the captain himself, Tek. Varitek is unquestionably the position player who contributes the most outside of his batting line. His scouting and preparation are legendary, and they give invaluable confidence to our pitchers in addition to a tactical edge. Even at age 36, Tek is still a serviceable catcher and an above-average bat at his position. However, that looks to change within the next year or two. A player of Varitek’s stature demands a deal worth at least $8M a year, if he’s willing to take a pay cut. And in the wake of Jorge Posada’s monster 4-year, $52.4M deal this year, I don’t know if that’s reasonable to expect.

Tek seems to be open to an extension, and why wouldn’t he be? Playing for a two-time World Champion in a place like Boston is a dream job for most players. Sean McAdam seems to think he wants a deal longer than two years, possibly four. And with Scott Boras as his agent, you know things will get dragged out. On the bright side, Varitek has gone over Boras’ head in the past in the interest of getting a deal done.

The Sox don’t have a lot of other options in the cupboard. Dusty Brown, George Kottaras and the like are not going to be ready for Fenway for a long time. Kenji Johjima will likely be a free agent after 2008, but Tek stays in very good shape, he says and does all the right things, he is our captain. And that is worth a lot. I’d be willing to go two years and $22-24M on him, and at the end of 2010, if he can still squat, we can talk about another deal then.

Papelbon is without a doubt our closer of the present and the future. There’s no way we should fail to pay him a fair amount for what he does, but there’s also no reason to sign him long-term until we get to arbitration. I know a lot of teams have been doing it this year; it’s fashionable to sign your Troy Tulowitzki or your Ian Kinsler real early. But what if you sign a guy, and an injury ends his career that year? You’ve effectively locked in money you didn’t have to commit yet. I’m all for giving Paps a generous raise (to $1M or so) on a one-year deal. Then maybe next January, lock him up.

Spring Training 2008: Manny an early arrival (sort of)

It’s official, Manny Ramirez has reported early to Ft. Myers today. Apparently he stuck his head in the clubhouse and wandered around for about 30 minutes before leaving to do whatever it is Manny does. Some more Spring Training tidbits:

David Ortiz went straight to the batter’s box, hit a few, and declared his knee to be a-ok.

Dustin Pedroia has reported to camp in very good shape, and he can’t wait to get going.

Josh Beckett, well, he reported in a shape.

Coco Crisp wants to start in centerfield for the Sox, or else start somewhere else.