Here are my early projections for this year’s team! I use a weighted three-year projection which incorporates regression, batted ball data and historical rate statistics. I have not made any adjustments for age or playing time as of yet. More details on my methodology at my other site, FantasyScope Baseball Blog.
Batters
| Name | Pos | HR | RBI | SB | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | wOBA |
| Kevin Youkilis | 1B/3B | 25 | 97 | 5 | 0.292 | 0.393 | 0.514 | 0.907 | 0.402 |
| J.D. Drew | RF | 19 | 66 | 3 | 0.273 | 0.386 | 0.487 | 0.873 | 0.386 |
| David Ortiz | DH | 26 | 97 | 1 | 0.258 | 0.358 | 0.483 | 0.841 | 0.373 |
| Dustin Pedroia | 2B | 15 | 73 | 18 | 0.300 | 0.369 | 0.451 | 0.820 | 0.369 |
| Victor Martinez | C/1B | 17 | 87 | 1 | 0.291 | 0.369 | 0.453 | 0.823 | 0.369 |
| Mike Lowell | 3B | 17 | 78 | 3 | 0.285 | 0.343 | 0.461 | 0.804 | 0.356 |
| Jacoby Ellsbury | CF | 9 | 52 | 51 | 0.290 | 0.347 | 0.410 | 0.758 | 0.353 |
| Jed Lowrie | SS | 3 | 39 | 4 | 0.260 | 0.334 | 0.391 | 0.724 | 0.329 |
| Josh Reddick | OF | 4 | 14 | 1 | 0.252 | 0.312 | 0.429 | 0.741 | 0.326 |
| Jason Varitek | C | 14 | 51 | 0 | 0.224 | 0.323 | 0.386 | 0.709 | 0.321 |
| George Kottaras | C | 2 | 12 | 1 | 0.232 | 0.309 | 0.371 | 0.680 | 0.306 |
| Jason Bay | LF | 30 | 106 | 11 | 0.263 | 0.366 | 0.490 | 0.856 | 0.383 |
| Rocco Baldelli | OF | 5 | 19 | 3 | 0.238 | 0.309 | 0.392 | 0.701 | 0.319 |
| Alex Gonzalez | SS | 10 | 45 | 3 | 0.254 | 0.304 | 0.392 | 0.696 | 0.311 |
| Nick Green | SS | 7 | 36 | 3 | 0.234 | 0.314 | 0.365 | 0.678 | 0.305 |
| Brian Anderson | OF | 5 | 22 | 4 | 0.234 | 0.310 | 0.367 | 0.677 | 0.305 |
| Joey Gathright | OF | 2 | 24 | 11 | 0.262 | 0.326 | 0.319 | 0.645 | 0.298 |
Pitchers
| Name | IP | W | L | ERA | WHIP |
| Jon Lester | 184.8 | 13 | 7 | 3.48 | 1.27 |
| Josh Beckett | 199.5 | 14 | 8 | 3.66 | 1.20 |
| Daisuke Matsuzaka | 110.7 | 8 | 6 | 4.27 | 1.49 |
| Tim Wakefield | 152.5 | 10 | 8 | 4.41 | 1.35 |
| Clay Buchholz | 86.3 | 5 | 6 | 4.53 | 1.43 |
| Junichi Tazawa | 4.58 | 1.40 | |||
| Michael Bowden | 4.84 | 1.44 | |||
| Jonathan Papelbon | 66.9 | 2 | 2 | 2.82 | 1.12 |
| Ramon Ramirez | 69.9 | 3 | 3 | 3.59 | 1.33 |
| Javier Lopez | 52.8 | 1 | 1 | 3.75 | 1.37 |
| Daniel Bard | 49.1 | 2 | 2 | 3.75 | 1.34 |
| Manny Delcarmen | 61.3 | 2 | 2 | 3.87 | 1.40 |
| Billy Wagner | 54.0 | 2 | 2 | 3.13 | 1.12 |
| Takashi Saito | 54.1 | 3 | 3 | 3.16 | 1.25 |
| Hideki Okajima | 62.4 | 1 | 1 | 3.54 | 1.23 |
| Paul Byrd | 96.6 | 6 | 6 | 4.74 | 1.42 |
Link: online spreadsheet with full projection numbers
I have included in-house talent at the top of each section, and potential free agents/losses at the bottom.
Losing Jason Bay will make a big dent in the offense, but this is still a pretty solid offense, providing we get someone above league-average in left field. It may not have felt like it at times, but Boston had the third-best offense in the AL in 2009.
We are losing a lot of talent out of the bullpen, but I fully expect them to bring Hideki Okajima back on a new contract, and those supplemental draft picks from losing Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito will be critical in rebuilding our farm system, should a Type A free agent be signed or a trade be made.
5 comments
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November 4, 2009 at 3:56 pm
Jeff Carini
Looks like they’re gonna need a #3 starter.
November 4, 2009 at 5:34 pm
Pat
That team looks very, very good.
I don’t expect Ortiz to do that well, and if he does, I will be floored.
I expect to see a lot more innings out of both Daisuke and Buchholz. Though, I would be very pleased if their ERAs match your very fair projection.
I don’t expect to see much more than 100IP from Wakefield.
No Lowrie projection?
I’m not sure about a number 3, but it does look like we need another starter.
November 5, 2009 at 12:06 am
redsoxtalk
Ack! Missed Lowrie when I was preparing the spreadsheet. I’ll add him now.
Ortiz is definitely a big question mark, but don’t forget that he hit .264/.356/.548 from June 2nd on with 27 HR and 81 RBI. I think he has a decent shot at hitting this projection; after all, how many 2-month slumps can a guy have? :)
As I mentioned, these are not adjusted at all for playing time, so yeah, I’d expect something like 150-180 IP out of Dice-K and Buchholz. Wakefield might be fall in the 110-140 IP range. Agreed, a number 4 or 5 starter with some upside looks in order.
November 5, 2009 at 12:15 am
redsoxtalk
Not much performance to go on with Lowrie, given his lost season. So what you see here is in some ways a pretty highly regressed, somewhat blind guess.
November 6, 2009 at 1:29 am
redsoxtalk
I agree the lineup looks pretty decent in terms of OBP and wOBA, but there’s not a whole lot of power there. Among those listed players, that’s only around 150 HR. That would’ve ranked 10th out of 12 AL teams this year. We will need to replace a good fraction of Bay’s 30 HR if he walks.