10-17-2011: The Lackey situation
October 17, 2011 2 Comments
Everyone is pretty worried about John Lackey and the three years remaining on his contract. What do we do with this albatross? Certainly none of the stats guys saw this coming. Curt Schilling claims that Lackey can’t rebound from the year he’s had, and the stats are beginning to agree. Here’s what we see in the crystal ball, taking into account his poor performance this year:
That’s about 0.40 runs higher than his 2011 projection coming in. And a 4.50 ERA is not what it used to be, either – the declining run environment around baseball means that our expectations of him are well below average at this point. Not too encouraging, considering the drastic decline in innings we expect to see from him. He could be capable of more, but do you really want him to pitch more than 130-140 innings at that level?
My feeling is that he starts next year as the #5 starter. There’s no sense in trading him now when he is at his lowest perceived value. If he can keep his ERA in the low- to mid-4s, he can keep that job, otherwise, I think we have no choice but to trade or cut him.
What do you think? Are you willing to live with that for the next three years at $16M/year?