Links: Arbitration, winter league prospects, etc

The Extra Bases blog lists those players who are eligible for salary arbitration this offseason: Jonathan Papelbon, Ramon Ramirez, Hideki Okajima, Jeremy Hermida, Casey Kotchman, Manny Delcarmen, Fernando Cabrera and Brian Anderson. Boston must offer them a contract by December 12, or else they become non-tendered free agents. They consider Cabrera and Anderson likely to be non-tender candidates.

2010 Free agent profile: Vladimir Guerrero

The Red Sox definitely need a contingency plan in case they can’t land Matt Holliday or Jason Bay this offseason. Theo Epstein and company have been thinking outside of the box, even looking at acquiring Dan Uggla to play in left. A right-handed OF with some power who could play left field in Fenway. Hmm, let’s see. How about asking Vladimir Guerrero to move to left?

Hot Stove 2010: Interest in Matsui overstated

There was a shockwave a couple of days ago when a Japanese media outlet claimed that the Red Sox were prepared to make a multi-year offer to Yankees free agent Hideki Matsui. I was skeptical about the rumor from the beginning, because Matsui can still hit and get on base, but he’s owner of two arthritic knees and can’t really play the field anymore. Even if relegated to DH duty, I’m not sure you can count on him as an everyday option.

Now it’s being reported that Boston’s interest in the slugger is nothing beyond just thinking about him as an option. He’s a DH, and we have one of those already.

Links: Analysis of Bard, Harden

Found a couple of great pitching articles, and just had to link them here:

Harry Pavlidis breaks down Daniel Bard’s slider. Very in-depth and insightful analysis using PITCHf/x data. He argues that Bard should give up the slurvy version of his slider and stick to the slutter, as the Red Sox are suggesting.

Remember my analysis of Rich Harden? Despite dropping to the use of just two pitches, I explained his success by referencing his excellent changeup. There’s a great piece on Driveline Mechanics that suggests that lost in the PITCHf/x classification is another fastball variant that is pretty unique and looks suspiciously like a cutter. Whatever it is, Harden’s using to very good effect.

Links: Varitek exercises option, Bay, and Hot Stove chatter

As expected, catcher Jason Varitek has chosen to exercise his $3M player option to stay with the Red Sox in 2010. My guess is that the front office will keep him on as the backup catcher until he starts hitting (er, whatever that was) like he did in the second half of 2009. The Sox have already announced that they plan to make Victor Martinez the “full-time” catcher next year, which basically means he’ll be catching a lot more than 50% of games, as he has done for the last few years. Let’s hope his body and hitting hold up under the extra workload.

All the comparisons have been between Jason Bay and Matt Holliday, but Dave Cameron touts Mike Cameron (no relation) as a better free agent signing. Preview: it is about the defense, but even if you discount the UZR numbers 50%, it still works out in Cameron’s favor. Bay is likely to sign for as much as 5/85, while Cameron may get 1/10. R.J. Anderson confirms what I said about the rumor that the Sox had an offer of 4/60 on the table for Bay, that it’s probably just a Scott Boras lie.

Hot Stove 2010: Sox bring back Victor Martinez, Wakefield

With the initial GM meetings underway and time running out to re-sign potential free agents, the Sox have announced that they have exercised the $7.1M option on C/1B Victor Martinez. We fully expect that Martinez will stick around and be a major contributor this season, a contract year.

They have also announced a two-year contract with longtime Sox starter Tim Wakefield worth $5M plus roughly $2M more in incentives. I think Wake was already a bargain at $4M/year, so this is icing on the cake for the Red Sox.

Earlier this week, the Sox declined the $6M option on shortstop Alex Gonzalez as well as the $5M option on Jason Varitek.

Hot Stove 2010: Milton Bradley available

I know, he’s an injury risk and a punk, but outfielder Milton Bradley is reportedly eminently available. After signing him to a 3-year deal just last offseason, the Cubbies can’t wait to deal him. As we know, the Red Sox front office is all about “value” these days (for better or for worse). In baseball, one man’s garbage could be another man’s treasure; and this garbage could come cheap, given the circumstances.

Hot Stove 2010: Sox acquire Hermida

Hmm, I didn’t see this one coming. Not at all. The Red Sox today traded LHPs Hunter Jones and Jose Alvarez for the rights to 25-year old OF Jeremy Hermida, who is entering his second year of salary arbitration. The 6-2, 222 Hermida has been slightly above average playing for the Marlins in the NL. As far as we can tell, he is potentially the fourth outfielder for this club in 2010; he may also be a trade chip as part of another deal. I think the latter may make more sense, because Hermida is pretty wretched with the leather and the Sox have more need for a right-handed OF reserve to spell J.D. Drew. So let’s take a look at what we got:

2010 Hot Stove: The case against Bay

Look, I love Jason Bay as a human being. And I appreciate all that he’s done for the Red Sox since arriving in Boston a season and a half ago. But he’s just not the guy for the Red Sox to sign this offseason – he’s coming off a career year and a half, and he plays defense roughly like a bump on a log. To think that he may sign a deal on par with or even bigger than Matt Holliday this offseason just boggles my mind.

Links: Sox to meet with Beckett, Hazen staying, AFL update

The Red Sox plan to meet with Josh Beckett to discuss his future with Boston. This is a contract year, and I wouldn’t mind seeing him locked up for a 2-3 more seasons.

Despite interviewing with the San Diego Padres and their new GM Jed Hoyer, director of player development Mike Hazen has decided to stay with Boston. That’s despite the fact that Hazen was a player in the Padres’ system at one time; that’s an encouragement.

Dustin Richardson has been selected to the AFL All-Star team. After his star dimmed a bit over the last year or so, the lefty looked impressive with the Sox this year and is throwing harder than ever. Casey Kelly and Jose Iglesias are splitting time at shortstop, and Kelly hopes to decide soon – offense or defense?