Links 11-1-2011: Pedroia wins a Fielding Bible award

Congratulations to Dustin Pedroia, who finished first among all second basemen in this year’s Fielding Bible Awards (expanded results are here). Adrian Gonzalez finished in second place among all first basemen, making the right side of our infield the best in baseball. Those of you holding out for us to sign Albert Pujols, it ain’t happening. You can’t play either of those guys at DH or anywhere else.

Carl Crawford finished eighth in left field, and Jacoby Ellsbury was sixth among centerfielders.

10-14-2011: How much did Ellsbury change his projection?

Jacoby Ellsbury recently won AL Comeback Player of the Year, and with good reason. His MVP-caliber performance really buoyed this offense when they lost key contributors like Kevin Youkilis. He is definitely one of the bright spots in a season filled with bad news.

Here is what we projected for him coming into 2011, based on his previous three years of performance:

Age	AB	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	SB	Avg	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRAA
27	478	18	6	8	36	63	42	0.280	0.336	0.390	0.347	11.5
28	482	18	6	8	36	63	40	0.280	0.336	0.389	0.346	11.0
29	481	18	5	8	36	62	38	0.279	0.335	0.387	0.344	9.9
30	476	17	5	8	34	61	36	0.278	0.333	0.384	0.341	8.1
31	465	16	5	8	32	59	33	0.276	0.330	0.379	0.336	5.7
32	449	15	4	7	30	56	31	0.273	0.325	0.373	0.331	2.9
33	429	14	4	7	27	53	28	0.269	0.319	0.366	0.325	-0.1
34	404	12	4	6	24	50	26	0.265	0.312	0.358	0.318	-3.2
35	375	11	3	5	20	46	23	0.261	0.305	0.348	0.310	-6.1

Boy does that look dumb now. Once we factor in his amazing 2011, the projection now looks like this:

Links 11-24-2010: V-Mart reactions, catcher

The news yesterday of Victor Martinez signing with the Tigers has ignited a lot of skepticism about the Red Sox for next season, but it’s still WAAAY too early to judge this offseason. It’s hard to keep perspective on the situation when Detroit’s winning bid was just $8M more than our best offer; for a team like the Red Sox, that’s easily absorbed over four seasons. They simply didn’t like him as their catcher for the long haul, and we have plenty of other needs to fill.

What do we do about catcher now? Everyone is agreed that we have some potentially good options in the pipeline, but we’ll need to sign someone for the short-term while we wait to see what exactly we have in Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Salty knows he needs to capitalize on this opportunity; let’s just hope he doesn’t pressure himself too much, because the fans won’t cut him much slack, I’m afraid. With the departure of Martinez, catcher could become our new shortstop, that seemingly unfillable position that leaves fans dissatisfied every year.

Links 11-10-2010: AL Gold Gloves, corner infielders, Salty as the man?

The AL Gold Gloves were announced yesterday to kick off awards week, and it is a Yankee-fest. Robinson Cano wasn’t a standout in the field. And Derek Jeter again? Are you kidding me? It seems they’ve mixed up hitting and reputation with fielding yet again.

It looks like we will be in need of a corner infielder, for 2011 at least. The top free agent third basemen are Adrian Beltre, and then nobody we want. First basemen include Lance Berkman, Paul Konerko, Adam Dunn, Carlos Pena, Derrek Lee and Adam LaRoche. Taking the guys out who figure to sign long-term deals, that leaves us with Berkman, Lee and possibly Pena. I’d be happy to add any of these guys for 1-2 years at $5-9M/year.

Links 9-20-2010: Beckett and Lackey, farm awards, V-Mart, crowdsourced contracts

Joe Pawlikowski examines Josh Beckett and John Lackey, and concludes that Beckett is probably more likely to return to form next season.

The Red Sox announced their minor league awards for 2010. Pitcher of the year is Felix Doubront, who did great as a starter, then bit the bullet to relieve for the Major League club.

After years of our top prospects kind of flaming out and struggling, Ryan Lavarnway and Anthony Rizzo are building some real value after very strong 2010 campaigns. And don’t forget Oscar Tejeda and Jose Iglesias, who also performed very well this year. Prospect guru John Sickels believes that Rizzo has passed up Lars Anderson as the top 1B prospect in our system.

The Red Sox signed four more international players, according to the Full Count blog.

Sully at Red Sox Beacon puts Darnell McDonald’s season into context for us. Yes, his defense was exposed in center field, but McDonald was better than a lot of  ”name” outfielders out there this year. Without him, this team would have been sunk a while ago.

Links 8-20-2010: Prospects post, playoffs slipping away, some bright spots, Papelbon

All told, the Red Sox spent a team record $10.66M on signing bonuses for this year’s draft class, guys who had not pitched a professional inning. It was a necessary infusion of talent into a farm system that has been drained of top prospects and had some of our best young guys get injured or tarnished this year. Considering we drafted well and signed all of our first 10 picks, evaluators have been picking the Sox draft as the best in our division this year.

Baseball America published their “best tools” series this week, and many Red Sox prospects got recognition, especially the superb defense currently at Double-A Portland.

Catching prospect Adalberto Ibarra did not pass his physical, so he renegotiated his contract with Boston to the tune of $700-800k. That’s a far cry from the $3M guaranteed deal that he originally agreed to. Sure, it saves money, but it must have been a significant issue for him to backtrack so much on the numbers.

Goodbye 2010?

Just when you think the Sox are ready to turn the corner, a day like yesterday happens. Dustin Pedroia is held out with foot pain, and Josh Beckett gets lit up by a so-so lineup in the Angels. Jarrod Saltalamacchia gets sent to the DL with a mystery leg infection. Add that up with no more Jacoby Ellsbury and Mike Cameron, and you’ve got a boring October looming.

7-13-2010: All-Star second-guessing, trade candidates

Congrats to David Ortiz, who took the Home Run Derby crown last night. Too bad he can’t face BP pitchers all the time. Heckuva time to ask for a contract extension, though I doubt this will factor too much into the calculation.

The All-Star rosters and starting lineups are out. Ubaldo Jimenez and David Price will get the ball first. Not terrible choices, but Jon Lester is more experienced, plays in a home park that inflates runs, and is just better. People point to the ERA gap, but our numbers suggest that Lester’s ERA should be at 2.58 (2.21 FIP) in a “neutral” AL run environment. Price would be at 2.48 (3.40 FIP); the ERA is better, but not by much at all. Price would have 89 Ks and 41 walks, while Lester would have 119 Ks and 43 walks. Not much of a contest here.

In another ballpark-unadjusted injustice, Paul Konerko was selected over Kevin Youkilis because he had “better numbers”. Not sure which numbers Joe Girardi is looking at, since Youk owns a .421 wOBA and Konerko is at .401. But if you mean the traditional stats, let’s adjust those for home park and league:

Youkilis: .292/.411/.572 with 17 HR and 54 RBI
Konerko: .298/.380/.544 with 19 HR and 56 RBI

7-5-2010: 5 Sox All-Stars, vote for Youk, the importance of Cash, injury updates

Even though the popular vote wasn’t too Boston-friendly, the AL roster voted by the players is replete with Red Sox, including Adrian Beltre, Clay Buchholz, Jon Lester, Victor Martinez, David Ortiz and Dustin Pedroia. Beltre, Buchholz and Lester are all first-time selections, and Ortiz making it is a great tribute to his turnaround season (it still doesn’t mean we should exercise his team option, though). Kevin Youkilis still has an outside shot of making it if enough fans vote for him in the special runoff vote. Support Youk here!

Speaking of Beltre, his standout season will likely earn him comeback player of the year and Type A free agent status. Should Scott Boras take him to free agency, he will land a hefty free agent deal which I don’t see the Sox matching. For all his ability, the guy just doesn’t seem to fit in with this team’s style of play or personality. It would also be a mistake to expect a repeat of this season next year, even in Fenway.

The Replacements

With our top two catchers hitting the DL in the same week and a mess of injuries at Pawtucket, our catching depth had never been so poor. Luckily for the Sox, Kevin Cash had just been DFA’d by Houston. It’s not that Cash is anything at the plate (his lifetime batting line looks like a typical pitcher’s line), but his familiarity with the Sox staff and Tim Wakefield’s knuckleball in particular made it a no-brainer to go get him. We were lucky, because I could see us losing a lot of games in this stretch without him.

Links 6-30-2010: Team health, trade strategy, catching, Lackey, All-Star voting, more on Beltre

There is still no timetable for Jacoby Ellsbury’s return, and that undefinedness has me worrying if he’ll be back at all before mid-August. Meanwhile, it looks like Jed Lowrie is just about ready to start a rehab assignment. Don’t disrespect mononucleosis.

Predictably, Theo Epstein is taking a conservative approach as we approach the month of mid-season trading. He wants to evaluate the depth we’ve got in-house more before making a move that will cost us prospects. Makes some sense, as we’re only a game out of first while missing 2/3 of our starting outfield most of this season. Epstein notes that he is very concerned about the state of our bullpen, but also stresses that he is not ready to give away good prospects for relief help.

With Victor Martinez on the shelf, Jason Varitek steps into the starting role once again. Now, aren’t you thankful for player options? It may actually be a good thing for Martinez to rest up, and Varitek ranks 14th on Beyond the Boxscore’s catcher defensive rankings, while Martinez is number 84 out of 90 Major League catchers. Why is Gustavo Molina up as the backup? Because he’s had some experience catching the knuckler. That’s another reason why the Sox were looking at acquiring Kevin Cash as well.

John Lackey was very solid last night against Tampa Bay. Not great, but solid. If there’s one bright spot to his year thus far, it’s that he’s performing best at Fenway, the place that he supposedly hated.

The Red Sox are all hurting in the All-Star voting process. ESPN’s Rob Neyer lists some of the more deserving AL All-Stars who are currently lagging in the voting and may not get selected. From the Red Sox, it’s our very own Kevin Youkilis.

David Golebiewski of FanGraphs writes yet another ode to Adrian Beltre. It’s true, he’s having just a phenomenal season. I look at the way he swings at everything, and I wonder how he can possibly be hitting .349, but there it is.

Links 6-29-2010: Historical hurt? Bonser becomes a FA, Beltre for HoF?

Although it might feel like it lately, BBTF Sox Therapy reminds us that while it’s been bad, this team has not been much more injured than other recent Sox teams. It’s good to keep some perspective, as we face a July full of fill-ins and temporary call-ups.

Boof Bonser cleared waivers today, and elected free agency. Looks like he didn’t show enough this season for any teams to want to give up anything to get him. Looks like the Sox will be on the prowl for more bullpen help. Do you think the Sox would want to revisit one of the free agent relievers available, like Chad Bradford or Hunter Jones? Hard-throwing Juan Cruz is an intriguing arm, but teams are staying away from him for some reason.

Satchel Price at Beyond the Box Score thinks that there are some reasons to think that Adrian Beltre could be headed for the Hall of Fame. I agree that Beltre’s been one of the best third basemen over the past 10-20 years, but I’m skeptical. Last time I checked, HoF voters don’t look at UZR or WAR in their deliberations. They look at things like batting average, HR, and RBI. OPS+ is about as fancy as they get, typically.