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Mike Fast has authored a neat post on Eric Gagne using Gameday data. He shows how Gagne uses his pitches, where he’s been successful, and where he’s been shelled. I’ll leave you to read the results for yourself. Wouldn’t want to ruin the suspense, ya know?
A very strong performance by Daisuke Matsuzaka (15-12) last night, coupled with a power explosion from David Ortiz led to a 5-2 victory over the Twins last night. Put that together that with an extra-inning win by Baltimore over the Yankees, and we are the new AL East Champions! It’s the first time the Yankees have failed to win it since 1995, and I say it signals a changing of the guard in the AL East. Congratulations, guys! You really deserve it after your red hot start and hanging on through slumps, injuries, and all sorts of criticism.
Dice-K went eight strong on 119 pitches to get win number 15. That was the best I’ve seen his windup and fastball in a long time. He seemed more relaxed, and was just letting it fly instead of trying to hit the exact spot every time. Minnesota was held scoreless until the 7th inning. His ERA ends at 4.40 on the year, but I’d say that’s kind of misleading because he had so many starts where he pitched deep and allowed fewer than 2 runs (kind of like last night). Honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised if he became a top starter next season for the BoSox.
Big Papi is really turning it on at just the right time. The past 7 days, he’s hitting a monstrous .565/.655/1.130/1.785 with 3 HR, and in September his line stands at .388/.514/.800/1.314 with 8 HR and 26 RBI. He’s making a strong push to overtake Mike Lowell in RBI this season (Ortiz has 117 to Lowell’s 118). In fact, Papi’s second half is looking pretty incredible at .348/.455/.684/1.139 with 20 HR and 64 RBI. Those are peak Barry Bonds numbers there, friends. Nobody wants to pitch to Big Papi right now, and that’s just the way we want it for the postseason.
Jonathan Papelbon finished off the Twins on just 6 pitches last night for his 37th save. Looks like they were trying to take a page out of the Yankees’ playbook and be aggressive with him, but you gotta have the bats to do that, guys.
Let’s see about our playoff preparedness here: The rotation is looking pretty sharp, the bullpen is getting better (or at least Hideki Okajima is), and the lineup is pretty healthy except for Manny Ramirez, Coco Crisp and Kevin Youkilis. Jason Varitek could be more rested, so I’d start Doug Mirabelli and Kevin Cash for the remaining games. In fact, we can play all our subs the next two games, and rest up for next week. I can’t wait.
While Daisuke Matsuzaka pitched great tonight against Tampa Bay and took another hard luck loss, 2-1, former Red Sox Kason Gabbard was the recipient of some serious run support. His record went to 6-1 on the season as the Texas Rangers scored 30 runs tonight on Baltimore, en route to a 30-3 victory. It’s the first time since 1897 that anyone has scored that many runs. Wow.
Dice-K should have at least 15 wins right now, in my opinion. Can we order some of whatever the Rangers are having?
Daisuke Matsuzaka gave up six runs yesterday, according to the box score. You might think that means he just had a poor outing, but you’d be wrong. One bad inning and a couple of defensive miscues really made that outing look far worse than it actually was. Unfortunately for Dice-K’s ERA, that is not reflected in the official box score.
One of the underutilized splits available on ESPN’s great statistics is pitcher performance by inning/number of pitches. They report batting performance against a pitcher in given situations. This can help tell you when a pitcher is most effective in his starts, and if they are just consistently bad, or just on and off bad.
Take a look at the splits for Matsuzaka:
Innings 1-3 .211/.300/.303 Innings 4-6 .276/.349/.474 Innings 7-9 .212/.246/.364
Pitches 1-15 .277/.382/.354 Pitches 16-30 .217/.340/.301 Pitches 31-45 .172/.200/.276 Pitches 46-60 .266/.344/.506 Pitches 61-75 .241/.310/.392 Pitches 76-90 .298/.359/.464 Pitches 91-105 .222/.325/.417 Pitches 106-120 .282/.282/.462
We see very clearly that he tends to allow a lot of baserunners early, be very tough for a couple of innings, and then struggles in the middle innings. He’s longball prone the second time through the order, and once he gets up past 75 pitches, Matsuzaka allows quite a bit of damage. That’s approximately the third time through the order.
Dice-K was criticized early for not pitching well from the stretch with men on base, but the numbers don’t support that anymore. He seems to bear down very well with men on (.258/.329/.422 with none on, .217/.300/.339 with men on base). He’s actually very good at escaping jams, which will make him an All-Star pitcher for years to come.
Compare Josh Beckett:
Innings 1-3 .239/.279/.388 Innings 4-6 .247/.280/.333 Innings 7-9 .215/.271/.342
Pitches 1-15 .205/.266/.397 Pitches 16-30 .231/.259/.308 Pitches 31-45 .238/.267/.333 Pitches 46-60 .267/.308/.419 Pitches 61-75 .241/.310/.392 Pitches 76-90 .264/.292/.352 Pitches 91-105 .180/.268/.240 Pitches 106-120 .320/.370/.400
It’s often said that Beckett looks like he gets stronger as the game goes on, and this is data to support that notion. We also see that there’s not much sense in pitching Beckett much over 100 pitches. He seems to tire out by then.
Just for info’s sake: Tim Wakefield pitches very much the same through all pitch counts, with the exception of pitches 46-60. For whatever reason hitters are managing to bat .315/.386/.506 in that period. Maybe it has to do with pitch selection the second time he faces hitters? He seems to lose his effectiveness at around 90 pitches.
Curt Schilling starts off fine, but has quickly gotten into trouble, then settles down. From 76-90 pitches, he has really gotten lit up, to the tune of .419/.446/.710 in 62 AB.
The way this team is going right now, we will probably still win the division, but I don’t think our chances are very good in the postseason. After a great start, we are playing .500 ball, and you don’t want to get to the playoffs doing that. The offense is floundering, we need a fourth outfielder, and probably a fifth starter. We need something to shake things up, to get these guys going, and a trade could be just the thing. Or maybe we need a moment like the Varitek/A-Rod slugfest of 2004. Come on guys, get fired up!
If we can make a significant move, I say we go all out. But I also urge that we keep some common sense about us.
As I write, Glen Ordway is on WEEI 850 advocating a move for Jermaine Dye, possibly giving up someone like Jon Lester in the deal. This guy is nuts. First of all, Dye is not the piece that takes us to the pennant. He’s a power hitter, yes, but not a great one. His career line is .274/.336/.483, and he’s having a terrible year, with almost no signs of recovering. Last year was an aberration, his best year ever. And where on earth would you play this guy? Are you going to play him in right and make the $14 million J.D. Drew sit on the bench? Great, Ordway, let’s replace a .252 hitter for a .227 one with some more pop. If we wanted to do that, we could play Wily Mo Pena in right.
Secondly, Lester hasn’t realized his potential yet, but the guy is just a few months removed from overcoming cancer. Trading him now, at the low point of his value, would be a mistake, especially if he comes back strong next year. Remember, this guy is only 23 years old. Most pitchers break out around age 24.
I’m not saying don’t trade Lester under any circumstances, but Dye is not the answer. Eric Byrnes might be slightly better, as I have posted before. Let’s not get too crazy with the trades here.
Alex Rodriguez is having a monster season, and he has an opt out in his contract after this season. He is also represented by Scott Boras, so he will opt out and become a free agent. Rodriguez is not especially happy in New York, has openly feuded with team captain Derek Jeter and there are plenty of teams that would make space in their payroll for a player of his caliber. If he goes to free agency, most sources have him signing a long-term deal (6-8 years) for about $30 million per season.
The Yankees are trying to extend his contract, but Rodriguez has repeatedly said he won’t negotiate during the season. New York has already said that if he opts out, they will not get involved in a bidding war to regain his services. The Texas Rangers will be paying over $10 million per year of the remaining three years of his contract, so the Yankees currently have him at a relatively cheap $15 million per year.
Rodriguez was nearly traded to Boston in 2003, but the player’s union nixed the salary restructuring needed for the deal. That’s when George Steinbrenner swooped in to snag Rodriguez. It’s said that Larry Lucchino would still love to sign A-Rod, who could supplant Mike Lowell at third base, whose contract is up at the end of this year. If the Sox allow Curt Schilling ($13M), Lowell ($9M) and Matt Clement ($9M) to all walk, that would free up the necessary wiggle room for a huge contract. And the Sox have a knack for signing Boras clients, usually for too much money.
While I don’t really like A-Rod as a person (seems like a lot of teammates don’t), he is a sure-fire Hall-of-Famer and possibly the most talented hitter ever. He is the one who will break Barry Bond’s (future) home run record, if he can stay healthy. You don’t pass up an opportunity like this lightly. To get two shots at him is a wonderful stroke of luck. At 30 years old, he is probably better suited to stay at third base than go back to shortstop, as some have suggested. We don’t have anyone in the farm system who will be taking over third base anytime soon, and as much as I like Lowell, he’s going to be 34 soon. Signing him virtually guarantees the lineup’s potency, even after Manny’s contract is up after 2008. And stealing him from the Yanks would feel really good, and make up for the Johnny Damon signing.
So yes, I would sign him. Preferably for six years and not eight. With Josh Beckett having emerged as the staff ace, and Daisuke Matsuzaka right behind him, along with Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz knocking at the door, I say yes. Let’s make some Yankee fans cry.
Not getting enough trade rumors? Here are some sites which will entertain you for at least a couple of hours, if you get into them.
The Rumor Mill over at MLBlogs.com
Baseball’s Rumor Mill at MSNBC.com
MLB Rumors at Pro Sports Daily.com
Trade Rumors at The Baseball Files
Despite Derek Jeter’s comments, most simulations and predictions at this point show that the Red Sox have a 90% or greater chance of making the playoffs. So with the trading deadline coming up, it might be time to see how we match up against other contenders, and how we might improve our team.
By all rights, whatever AL representative goes should beat the NL champion, so I won’t get into those teams here. We have no clue who’s going yet anyways. But in the AL, three competitors are posting strong showings. Here they are:
Detroit Tigers (52-34)
4-3 against Boston
Lineup: Edge Detroit.
The Tigers feature a strong lineup which has produced the most runs in the majors this year by a wide margin (41 runs). The team as a whole can not continue to hit .290 (can they?), but they are still formidable. One possible weakness could be the lineup’s youth and aggressiveness, as Gary Sheffield is the only truly patient hitter. The Tigers rely more on getting hits than drawing walks, but have managed a team OBP of .352 because their high averages. Looking at career numbers, the Red Sox should improve offensively, but now we know that Papi is playing hurt, which is not a good sign.
Starters: Even.
Boston’s had the best rotation in the majors this year. That could change if Curt Schilling can’t return at 100%, or someone else goes down with an injury. Detroit features two guys with top-of-the-rotation stuff in Jeremy Bonderman and Justin Verlander, and three left-handed starters, which tend to give the Sox trouble. Still, I’d take Beckett, Schilling, Dice-K and Wakefield in the post-season.
Bullpen: Slight edge Boston.
Boston’s bullpen has been the best so far, and the Tigers have struggled there this year, but Detroit has also been without star setup man Joel Zumaya since May 3 and Fernando Rodney the past few weeks. Both are expected to be back shortly, and will tighten up the pen, though closer Todd Jones can still be an adventure. My guess is that the advantage for Boston will not be very sizeable here as of now. Getting another solid righty should upgrade this to a significant advantage for us.
Defense: Slight edge Boston.
The Tigers lost the World Series last year due to a lack of clutch hitting and a lack of defense. The much publicized record five errors by pitchers in the Series was most likely an aberration, and the Tigers have worked to remedy that. Still, the young club makes too many errors, though they are capable of great plays as well. The Sox are much steadier on defense for the most part, with established fielders everywhere except left field and second base.
Manager: Even.
Terry Francona has been to the post-season regularly with Boston, but Jim Leyland is no newbie, either. Leyland has been a stellar fit for the young Tigers.
Conclusion
Detroit is a tough matchup, because they feature a good lineup as well as some good pitching. They recently swept the Sox in a three game series going into the All-Star break.
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (53-35)
0-3 against Boston
Lineup: Edge Boston.
I’m sorry, but outside of Vladimir Guerrero, this lineup is not very intimidating. They are 6th in runs produced, just ahead of Boston so far, but they have been dependent on two young, unestablished hitters to carry them in Casey Kotchman and Reggie Willits. Orlando Cabrera is hitting 55 points over his career average, and that won’t last. Getting Juan Rivera back should help some, but my guess is that they regress a lot offensively in the second half, unless they make a big move at the deadline.
Starters: Edge Boston.
The Angels feature five right-handed starters, four of which can be deadly if fully healthy and in their grooves: John Lackey, Kelvim Escobar, Bartolo Colon and Jered Weaver. That being said, only Lackey and Escobar are performing well and Escobar has a history of inconsistency. If Colon can get healthy, this could become an even category, but for now, Boston can take these guys.
Bullpen: Even.
The Angels are one of the few teams who have a more established 1-2 punch than Boston in Scot Shields and Francisco Rodriguez. Once Justin Speier returns from the DL, they will be hard to beat late. That being said, they run only three deep, really, in their pen, so if we can knock out their starters early, they will be in trouble.
Defense: Even.
The Angels are an average defensive team in terms of errors, but I don’t see us having any clear advantage over them. Now if we had Alex Gonzalez, that’d be a different story…
Manager: Even.
Mike Scioscia has 8 years of experience, like Tito, and has been to the post-season three times already.
Conclusion
The Angels don’t worry me very much as presently constituted. Their Pythagorean, second- and third-order won-loss records at Baseball Prospectus suggest that they are playing 4-5 games over their heads right now and are due for a slide. They do have minor-league talent that they could deal, however, to become scarier.
Cleveland Indians (52-36)
1-2 against Boston
Lineup: Even.
They have a pretty balanced lineup, with 5 guys having hit 14 or more HR. I’m willing to call this even because the Indians have produced very well so far (2nd in runs scored), and Travis Hafner has yet to hit his stride. If Pronk gets it together, watch out. But then, if Manny and Papi get it together…
Starters: Edge Boston.
C.C. Sabathia is for real, and Fausto Carmona is having a great year. Cliff Lee is a quality lefty, but after that, there’s not much there, unless one of their young pitchers really steps it up. The fact that two of their top three are lefties keeps this from being a huge mismatch.
Bullpen: Big edge Boston.
The Indians’ bullpen has been adequate, but is suspect at best. Rafael Betancourt and Aaron Fultz have pitched well, but a closer with a 5.35 ERA? Come on.
Defense: Even.
Cleveland is a little weak on the corners, but very solid in the outfield, and Victor Martinez has worked hard to improve his defense at catcher.
Manager: Edge Boston.
Eric Wedge has never been invited to the post-party party.
Conclusion
The Indians are an interesting team, but they will need some help if they really want to win it this year.
Seattle Mariners (49-36)
4-2 against Boston
Lineup: Edge Boston.
Richie Sexson has not buoyed this lineup enough, and they do not produce enough extra base hits, though they have hit for average (.283 team average). A big part of that average, of course, comes from Ichiro Suzuki, who is hitting .359.
Starters: Big edge Boston.
Felix Hernandez can dominate any team if he’s on, and Jarrod Washburn and Miguel Batista have not been bad. But this rotation can’t measure up to any of these other teams here.
Bullpen: Slight edge Boston.
Seattle has J.J. Putz closing out games, who Boston has yet to get a hit off of this year. Beyond that, they have a lot of young arms who have gotten the job done.
Defense: Edge Seattle.
Seattle plays some pretty good defense, and is strong up the middle and at third base.
Manager: Big edge Boston.
Mike Hargrove just resigned, leaving the Mariners without a manger. Not a good sign at all. The team hasn’t been to the post-season since 2001.
Conclusion
Seattle has played well, but I wonder if the M’s can even make the playoffs under a new manager. More likely to me is either Oakland or Minnesota having a good second half (again) and sneaking into the post-season.
I think most people will agree, Wily Mo Pena is physically gifted and can hit a baseball a mile. He’s a pretty good teammate, and has a good attitude. He provides right-handed power off the bench. But I think we can also agree that he is no longer a good fit for our club. Pena’s bat and his defense need some serious work, but he is out of minor league options. Pena is downright scary in right field, and not much better in center, and we already have a DH, thank you very much. He’s not much use as a pinch-hitter, as he strikes out every third at-bat.
Personally, I think Theo picked him up thinking he could possibly replace Manny someday in left. Or maybe he thought he’d blossom into an Adam Dunn-type hitter. I was all for the trade when we got him, but it seems that the scouting reports failed to mention a few things. I expected the strikeouts, but no one really knew how bad this guy was with the glove.
Ideally, a fourth outfielder should be able to play two, if not three, outfield positions well and not be terrible at the plate. They would probably see a lot of action as a late-inning defensive replacement and as a pinch hitter/pinch runner. Anyone who has watched J.D. Drew flail against lefties (.263/.387/.427 in 354 AB from 2004-2006) and is familiar with his history of injuries knows we could use someone to spell him. So we want someone who could play right field and hit left-handed pitching.
Actually Coco Crisp could fill this position if we traded for a marquee centerfielder like Ichiro Suzuki or Andruw Jones, but the asking price for those names includes names like Lester and Buchholz, so let’s hold off on that option for now.
So what have we got for options?
Some people have mentioned Ken Griffey Jr., but at 37 years old, I’m not so sure I like him as a defender anymore. Yes, he’s having a great season statistically, but he’s a lefty and a .232/.300/.461 hitter against lefties the previous three years. I’m just not sold that he’s a great fit for us.
Pat Burrell, recently benched in Philadelphia, has been and continues to be available. He is a right-handed bat with power, and he’s hit lefties well the past three years (.296/.432/.526). However, he’s making $13 million this year and $14 million in 2008, and is having a miserable year at the plate. He’s also not impressive defensively, though he does have a good arm.
Xavier Nady could be an option, as he has hit left-handed pitching at a .331/.409/.506 pace the last three years. He can play either corner, but has a noodle of an arm and is more of a 1B/DH type. The Pirates are always eager to take on prospects, so might do a deal. He’s playing on a 1-year, $2.2 million contract.
Kevin Mench of the Brewers is a 29-year old veteran who is currently riding the pine but has a pretty good bat. He’s a right-handed hitter with some decent power (lifetime .467 SLG), and has experience playing in the AL with Texas. From 2004-2006, he hit .307/.379/.590 in 398 AB against lefties. Despite being a biggish guy, he is not bad defensively at the corners and won’t clog up the basepaths. Mench is on a 1-year contract worth $3.4 million, and I can’t imagine the Brewers demanding a king’s ransom for him.
I know that these are not as exciting as getting, say, Mark Buehrle or Mark Teixeira, but I think one key role player could help us a lot the rest of the way and in a seven-game series. Wily Mo Pena is not that player. Any other suggestions? Please comment!
All-Star break comes, and the Red Sox are atop the AL East with a record of 53-34. We’ve been here before. Actually, it was last year. Our record was 53-33 then, and we were the team to beat in the East.
Look, I know it’s hard for Red Sox fans to look on the bright side. We’ve been hurt before. But here are a number of whys that should have Red Sox Nation smiling with cautious enthusiasm this year.
5 Red Sox reasons to be optimistic
- The lead. Last year, the Yankees were sniffing around at 50-36, just 3.0 games back. This year, both New York and Toronto are 10 games back, and haven’t demonstrated yet that they have what it takes to mount a serious challenge this year.
- A year older, a year wiser. Theo and the front office learned something about player depth last season, especially pitching depth. They won’t make the same mistake again. I fully expect them to fiddle with the roster and make a minor trade or two, because Wily Mo is no fourth outfielder/pinch hitter, and you can never have enough quality arms in the bullpen. We could also use an outfielder who can hit lefties.
- The pitching staff. Our Red Sox have allowed the fewest runs so far of any major league team. Yes, even fewer than Oakland. I know it doesn’t always feel like it, but this pitching staff is tops in the majors. And that’s with Julian Tavarez as your fifth starter, Josh Beckett having hit the DL once, and Curt Schilling out for a stretch. The bullpen has been awesome, and the defense backing them up is pretty good, too.
- Career numbers. Thank God for regression to the mean. In baseball, what that means is that in 98% of cases (barring injury or other physical/mental change), Julio Lugo can not continue hitting .197 when he’s a career .270 hitter. He will get going at some point and likely end somewhere around .230-.240 on the year, if not better. David Ortiz, who has averaged over 47 HR his past three years, will get more mistake pitches to drive, and he’ll figure out what to do with that breaking stuff away so that people will have to pitch to him. And if you believe sabermetrics, which claims there is no such thing as clutch hitting, the Red Sox can not go on hitting so poorly with men on base.
- The youth. After years of hearing about Jon Lester, Jacoby Ellsbury, Manny Delcarmen and Clay Buchholz, we are finally seeing them (or will see them shortly) in Boston uniforms. And we like what we see. Should anything happen to a regular player, it’s nice to know that we have some pretty good options standing by, not just journeymen off the scrap heap.
