6-2-2011: May wrapup, a great month

The month of May was a good one for the Sox, a really good one. They began the month at just 11-15 on the year, scraping the bottom of the division. The offense was barely average, and the pitching was decent but inconsistent. What a difference a month makes. Now Boston sits at 30-26 on the year, and is in second place, just two games back of the Yankees, despite the recent three-game sweep at the hands of the ChiSox. What have been the keys to this turnaround?

Offense

The Red Sox offense was the most potent in the American League in May, and not by a little. Putting up 126 runs in 29 games (5.38 runs/game) is very impressive by 2011 offensive standards, where league average is just 4.30 runs/game. Just a year ago, the average was 4.45 runs/game, and the year before that, it was 4.82 runs/game. So you probably have to kind of mentally add a quarter to a half run per game onto that figure if you want to compare with previous years.

Month	R/G	Avg	OBP	SLG	BABIP	wOBA	BB%	K%
April	4.11	0.243	0.331	0.380	0.283	0.319	10.9	21.1
May	5.38	0.287	0.349	0.472	0.317	0.361	7.9	18.4

As a team, the Red Sox put up a .287/.349/.472 slash line and a .361 wOBA (second was the Yankees at .340) and were about 26 percent better than the average AL offense. Looking at the walk and strikeout rates, it looks like the Sox as a team got more aggressive, and it’s been paying off. also, the power is back on. They hit the most doubles with 61 and tied with New York for first with 39 HRs this month. Even the running game got started (along with Carl Crawford), as the Sox swiped 28 bases in May. Some of this extra production comes from that high .317 BABIP in May. With league average at .286 on the year, that’s going to fall back to earth a bit. Still, this offense has moved up to fourth on the year and has the potential to keep pushing up the ranks.

4-29-2011: April wrapup, the team

With two games left in April, the Red Sox find themselves at 11-13 on the young season, 4 games back of the Yankees, and right on the heels of Tampa Bay and Toronto in the standings. Thanks to a terrible 2-10 start, our Sox have not yet been on the right side of .500, though things seem to be evening out now. With these two games against the lowly Mariners and Felix Hernandez not due up until game 3, I have hope that we can finish the month above the .500 line.

Time to take stock of what we’ve seen so far, and separate the real from the illusion. Today we’ll look at the overall team performance, and in a later post we’ll look at individual players.

Offense

This lineup got a lot of positive reviews before the season even began, with some calling it possibly the best Boston lineup ever. I thought these expectations were overblown, but 4.3 runs a game and a .318 team wOBA is not what anyone had in mind. This lineup has actually been below average, which is mind-blowing. While they haven’t pounded fastballs much worse than anyone else, the Sox as a club have really struggled against hard breaking stuff (sliders and cutters).

4-25-2011: Some props for the gloves

Wow, does it ever feel good to get the standings back into whack (for the most part). The Sox have now won 8 of their last 9 games, and looked really good doing it. Everything seems to be falling into place; even Carl Crawford is getting it started at the plate. The rotation suddenly looks like the collection of four aces I was effusing about before the season, and we are getting innings from them, making the bullpen look very strong recently.

The rotation is getting all the accolades for their recent domination, but don’t forget that a lot of this recent run is thanks to some pretty good defense. The Red Sox rank 5th in baseball with a .734 DER, just behind the Tampa Bay Rays, who we know can really pick it. Though it hasn’t had much time to really stabilize and be reliable, Ultimate Zone Rating likes the Red Sox at +6.6 runs on the year, 7th best in MLB. John Dewan’s Plus/Minus system has the Sox at -5 on the year, but we know that there were some pretty blatant gaffes early that probably contributed to that.

4-8-2011: Yankees series predictions, Aceves called up

If there was any inkling of overconfidence by these Red Sox coming into the 2011 season, it’s gone now. The defensive and baserunning miscues we saw this week showed a general lack of focus and preparedness, and those need to be dealt with, NOW. Our boys limp into Boston 0-6 on the year, having been swept in embarrassing fashion by the Rangers, and now even the rebuilding Indians at the Jake. I don’t think any less of this team talent-wise, but I do think that there’s a comfort level which has to be reached, and it will only happen after we win our first game.

Game 1: Phil Hughes vs. John Lackey

Normally, I’d say that Hughes is a better pitcher, but you have to take into account the beating that he took in his first start against Detroit. Don’t discount the fact that his fastball was clocking in at only 89 mph, whereas it’s normally about 3-4 mph faster. I think Lackey surprises us with a pretty solid outing (say 2-3 runs over 6 innings) and we finally win our first game here.

Links 12-14-2010: More about Crawford, Lee signs with the Phillies, Blanton?, Rule 5

The Red Sox signing of Carl Crawford was a pleasant surprise for the Nation. After telling reporters that he was done with his major acquisitions, Theo Epstein went and snatched Crawford, who was all but ready to sign with the Angels. Hard to remember that just a week ago, we were trying to decide between Josh Willingham and Magglio Ordonez. Here are his contract details. Maybe the happiest Red Sox is Jason Varitek, who doesn’t have to pretend to try to throw him out on the bases anymore. The Sox could do this deal because of all the money coming off of the books, and because they have the young talent and draft picks to remain sustainable for the years to come.

Red Sox Beacon thinks that the infield grass at Fenway will hurt Crawford’s ability to get infield hits. I think it will lessen the number of grounders that make it through, but I think it might actually help him on balls that roll dead in no man’s land.

Where will Crawford hit? He doesn’t really like to lead off, but he’s willing. If Jacoby Ellsbury can return to form, my guess is he’ll hit either third or fifth, since Dustin Pedroia is locked into the two hole (and Terry Francona likes going lefty-righty at the top).

I’m actually excited about Crawford playing next to Ellsbury in the outfield. That’s the fastest outfield in baseball. While people say that playing him in front of the Green Monster is a waste, it allows Jacoby to shift over towards right-center. It makes everyone better out there; not too many balls will fall in either alley as a result.

And then seemingly out of nowhere, the Philadelphia Phillies came in and swooped up one Cliff Lee yesterday, leaving the New York Yankees and Texas Rangers open-mouthed and empty-handed. Lee signed for less guaranteed money then either the Yankees or Rangers were offering, so perhaps he wasn’t psyched about playing in either place (count the option, and it’s actually better). And this is yet another piece of good news for the Red Sox. For a team that is loading up on left-handed hitting, it’s a godsend that Lee, one of the top lefties in baseball, will not be playing in our division or even our league. The Rays lost Crawford to us (plus half their bullpen), and the Yankees have few options with which to boost their rotation. This is a huge shift in the balance of power in the AL East.

12-9-2010: Why Carl Crawford is (probably) worth $20M per year

As I wrote my about the signing of Carl Crawford last night, lost in the ecstasy of the moment was the realization that we had just paid over $20M/season for a guy with a career .337 OBP and .444 SLG percentage. Like many others, this morning I started thinking: was it really worth it for us to spend like a drunken sailor on Crawford? And after doing some due diligence, I think the answer is yes. Let me explain.

Defense is underpaid in today’s game

Remember Moneyball, and how teams started signing players based on OBP after it came out? The real point of the book was not so much that on-base percentage was everything. Rather, it’s that you go after whatever is undervalued in the market to gain a competitive advantage. It has been suggested, and not by a few, that today’s undervalued asset is defense, primarily because it’s hard to measure and evaluations can be so subjective.

12-9-2010: Sox sign Carl Crawford!

Not a bridge year indeed. Peter Abraham reports that the Red Sox have signed free agent outfielder Carl Crawford to a 7-year, $142M contract. Ken Rosenthal confirms this too. If this is what Theo Epstein means by a complementary player… There go the theories about shrinking the payroll.

Wow. Just wow. It has long been known that the Sox coveted Crawford, but I did not expect this. The Sox are opening up the vaults in their best imitation of the Yankees. There’s one major difference, however. Epstein is locking himself into long-term deals, yes. But he is locking up players who are still in their prime and play defense as well as hit, providing value in more than one dimension.

As MLB Trade Rumors points out, scooping up Crawford is a major coup in a division where they are taking him from the Rays and keeping him from the Yankees. Perhaps drinking his own Kool-Aid on Brett Gardner’s excellent 2010, Brian Cashman was a bit late to the Crawford party, and it cost him big.

On the Horizon: OF Ryan Kalish

I guess I must be getting behind on these, since Ryan Kalish has already made his Major League debut and completed his official rookie season. Here we take a closer look at this promising young outfielder, and what his role with the team could be in 2011 and beyond.

Background

Just 22 years old, Kalish was drafted in 2006 as an over-slot 9th rounder out of Red Bank Catholic HS in New Jersey and is already a veteran of Boston’s farm system. Already committed to play baseball and football (quarterback) at University of Virginia, he hesitantly decided to sign with the Sox, his childhood favorite team. In addition to his $600k signing bonus, the Red Sox have agreed to pay his future college expenses. Highly competitive, he has drawn a lot of comparisons with Trot Nixon because of his all-out, “dirt-dog” style of play. Fans will love his aggressive play on the field. He is a charismatic player who draws the admiration of coaches and teammates, and he is said to be very mature (read this interview to verify it for yourself – part 1 and part 2). Kalish suffered a broken hamate bone in 2007 which required surgery and affected him in 2008 as well, but it appears to be fully healed now.

2010 was Kalish’s official rookie season, and he exploded upon the scene, going seven for his first 13 with a .538/.533/.615 line and hitting this memorable shot at Yankee Stadium. As with all rookies, Kalish went through his struggles and made adjustments, and he showed the tenacity and competitiveness that has made him successful.

Tools

Links 7-16-2010: Mid-season analyses, Escobar to Jays, more fun stuff

Lots of fun analyses from all over as we start the second half after the ASB. Despite our recent slide, both BP and THT peg us with a 40-45% shot at the playoffs. I agree with Sox Therapy – we’re not in a bad position, all things considered. The consensus seems to be we should do something to shore up our bullpen and outfield. Here are some of my favorites:

Here’s a visual look at how the rotations and offenses stack up in the AL East based on FIP and OPS. Didn’t I tell you we’d have a good rotation? The problem was early that the defense was poor, and now some of our key pitchers are injured… For those of you who are convinced Daisuke Matsuzaka was one of the worst signings ever, here’s proof that that’s not the case at all. While it clearly wasn’t a jackpot signing, Boston has gotten a somewhat decent return for their money.

Our bullpen is another story. But when bullpens get overused, pitchers get exposed. And injured. That’s been one of the secrets to the success of the Rays’ bullpen, which is probably the best in the division right now.

The Hardball Times has a new visualization of “value” called PayScale, and they compared the 3 giants in the AL East. Boston is more efficient with their money than NY, but not as efficient as Tampa Bay. But we knew that… With the acquisition of Cliff Lee last week, the Texas Rangers are putting all the pieces in place to really make a run. Don’t underestimate them – I have their pitching staff as one of the best in baseball BEFORE the trade; it’s masked somewhat because their home field is so run-prone.

Speaking of defense, how has the improved run prevention strategy served the Red Sox so far? Here’s a look by BP based on defensive efficiency rating. According to them, the Sox are the third-most improved team defensively this season.

What about baserunning? In typical fashion, the Red Sox are the least out-prone team on the basepaths this year. The problem is, without Jacoby Ellsbury, we don’t steal a whole lot to begin with.

6-27-2010: Victor Martinez breaks thumb, the season in perspective

Oh man, when it rains, it pours. Victor Martinez has broken his left thumb in today’s game, after taking a couple of foul tips off of his glove in today’s game. He may or may not go on the DL, but this is certainly not good news for the injury-riddled Sox.

At least Clay Buchholz won’t have to go on the DL. In fact, he may even make his next start, though the schedule would allow for the Sox to get him some extra time off without having to call anyone up.

Dan Barabisi notes that 2B/OF Eric Patterson will be activated Tuesday, and that the left-handed hitter could make a decent platoon partner with Bill Hall. It’s a nice thought, but Hall is actually hitting much better against righties this year, and in his career, his platoon split is not so bad; he’s hit righties at a .243/.298/.428 clip. Patterson has hit .226/.309/.365 against RHP. All indications are that Patterson is a depth backup.

This season, full of injuries and disappointments as well as pleasant surprises, is pretty frustrating, but it makes for some fascinating baseball, says Patrick Sullivan. I have to agree.

One thing about Josh Beckett’s poor performance this season – it’s come against some pretty tough competition. In fact, by at least one measure, it’s come against the toughest competition there is in baseball. So there’s still some small hope that if he can get back healthy, we might see the old Beckett.

The Red Sox took some measures to shut down their opponents on the basepaths back in May, and it really worked. However, now that the problem has become less of a concern, it seems that opponents are gearing it up again.