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There’s a really long article with lots of pretty pictures on Baseball Analysts (one of my long-time favorite sites) comparing Matt Holliday and Jason Bay. Holliday seems to cover the plate better, but Bay’s command of the strike zone is impressive; that 15.0% walk rate this year was not an accident. Bay also seems to be a better fastball hitter, though he pulls a lot and Holliday sprays the ball and uses the field more. From the charts it looks like if you want to get Holliday out, you throw a mixture of breaking stuff in the dirt and high heat.

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Jason Bay has been waiting a long time for his big payday, and after an excellent 2009 season, he’s all set to cash in. I don’t blame the guy – how many chances does a guy have in his life to sign a contract worth $50-60M or more? Sports Illustrated has reported that Jason Bay has turned down a Red Sox offer of 4 years and “close to” $60M, and gone to free agency. Keep in mind that this report is from Jon Heyman, who Scott Boras routinely uses to achieve his ends; in this case, it seems he wants to drive up the market expectation for left fielders and his client Matt Holliday in particular. In Hot Stove double-talk, “close to” could mean anything, so I wouldn’t read too much into this. I, for one, certainly hope that the Red Sox will NOT go past this offer to Bay. Here’s why.

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With the departures of Takashi Saito, Javier Lopez and Billy Wagner, the Sox have some bullpen holes to fill for this season. Even with the presence of several quality arms in this relief corps, we saw the value of having depth last year. Apparently the Sox have requested the medical records of Atlanta free agents Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano. This may not mean too much, but it could mean the Sox are on the verge of making a decision about them and want to make it an informed one.

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Matt Holliday will likely get the biggest deal this offseason, but he’s no Mark Teixeira.

John Lackey might not be as good a signing as some think, warns FanGraphs.

FanGraphs gives an argument as to why trading for David DeJesus might be a better move than overpaying for a top free agent left fielder this offseason. Xavier Nady could be average with the bat, but don’t expect his arm to be what it used to be.

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I’m beginning to agree with Darren at Sox Therapy, I think that Boston is going to be pretty conservative this offseason, and that they’ll bring in a veteran shortstop to plug that hole. Could it be Marco Scutaro? Scutaro had been seen as a utility-type player, but when given a chance in Toronto, he turned in two very good years in his age 32 and 33 seasons. One of the best contact hitters in the game with just enough pop to make him valuable, Scutaro could be a godsend for a team in need of a quality, short-term shortstop.

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The Red Sox definitely need a contingency plan in case they can’t land Matt Holliday or Jason Bay this offseason. Theo Epstein and company have been thinking outside of the box, even looking at acquiring Dan Uggla to play in left. A right-handed OF with some power who could play left field in Fenway. Hmm, let’s see. How about asking Vladimir Guerrero to move to left?

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I know, he’s an injury risk and a punk, but outfielder Milton Bradley is reportedly eminently available. After signing him to a 3-year deal just last offseason, the Cubbies can’t wait to deal him. As we know, the Red Sox front office is all about “value” these days (for better or for worse). In baseball, one man’s garbage could be another man’s treasure; and this garbage could come cheap, given the circumstances.

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Hmm, I didn’t see this one coming. Not at all. The Red Sox today traded LHPs Hunter Jones and Jose Alvarez for the rights to 25-year old OF Jeremy Hermida, who is entering his second year of salary arbitration. The 6-2, 222 Hermida has been slightly above average playing for the Marlins in the NL. As far as we can tell, he is potentially the fourth outfielder for this club in 2010; he may also be a trade chip as part of another deal. I think the latter may make more sense, because Hermida is pretty wretched with the leather and the Sox have more need for a right-handed OF reserve to spell J.D. Drew. So let’s take a look at what we got:

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Look, I love Jason Bay as a human being. And I appreciate all that he’s done for the Red Sox since arriving in Boston a season and a half ago. But he’s just not the guy for the Red Sox to sign this offseason – he’s coming off a career year and a half, and he plays defense roughly like a bump on a log. To think that he may sign a deal on par with or even bigger than Matt Holliday this offseason just boggles my mind.

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You’re going about this all wrong. Would it be nice to get an elite slugger or a young ace this offseason? Of course! But at what price? Despite how it looked at times, the lineup is strong, and finished 3rd in runs scored, despite playing Nick Green and Jason Varitek as much as we did. And the rotation already has four strong pitchers if Daisuke Matsuzaka can come back. Trading Clay Buchholz now is the wrong move; he will give you 80-90% of what Hernandez will over the next four years at a bargain price. The Red Sox have talent and should continue to build from within. We certainly need to address that left field vacancy, as well as the lack of pop in the lineup; signing Matt Holliday should be enough on both counts, and we can fill in as needed around these guys. Here’s how to approach the off-season with measured restraint:

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Fenway header image by Eric Kilby, used by permission under Creative Commons.

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