Hot Stove 2010: Sox acquire Hermida

Hmm, I didn’t see this one coming. Not at all. The Red Sox today traded LHPs Hunter Jones and Jose Alvarez for the rights to 25-year old OF Jeremy Hermida, who is entering his second year of salary arbitration. The 6-2, 222 Hermida has been slightly above average playing for the Marlins in the NL. As far as we can tell, he is potentially the fourth outfielder for this club in 2010; he may also be a trade chip as part of another deal. I think the latter may make more sense, because Hermida is pretty wretched with the leather and the Sox have more need for a right-handed OF reserve to spell J.D. Drew. So let’s take a look at what we got:

2010 Hot Stove: The case against Bay

Look, I love Jason Bay as a human being. And I appreciate all that he’s done for the Red Sox since arriving in Boston a season and a half ago. But he’s just not the guy for the Red Sox to sign this offseason – he’s coming off a career year and a half, and he plays defense roughly like a bump on a log. To think that he may sign a deal on par with or even bigger than Matt Holliday this offseason just boggles my mind.

Hot Stove 2010: Sign Matt Holliday

You’re going about this all wrong. Would it be nice to get an elite slugger or a young ace this offseason? Of course! But at what price? Despite how it looked at times, the lineup is strong, and finished 3rd in runs scored, despite playing Nick Green and Jason Varitek as much as we did. And the rotation already has four strong pitchers if Daisuke Matsuzaka can come back. Trading Clay Buchholz now is the wrong move; he will give you 80-90% of what Hernandez will over the next four years at a bargain price. The Red Sox have talent and should continue to build from within. We certainly need to address that left field vacancy, as well as the lack of pop in the lineup; signing Matt Holliday should be enough on both counts, and we can fill in as needed around these guys. Here’s how to approach the off-season with measured restraint:

Hot Stove 2010: Trading for Felix Hernandez

Look, you’re being too short-sighted here. Getting a big bat would be great, but this is a contract year for Josh Beckett and we don’t know what we’ll have in Daisuke Matsuzaka. Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz are great, but two guys does not a rotation make. What are we gonna do if Beckett flies the coop for a deal near $20M/year? What we really should be doing is trading to ensure our future. Solidify the rotation, then you you can go and build the rest of the squad. And there’s no better building block out there than 24-year old Felix Hernandez. Here’s fantasy off-season option B:

Hot Stove 2010: Trading for Adrian Gonzalez

It seems that an Adrian Gonzalez trade is drumming up the most excitement in Red Sox Nation so far, so let’s formulate an off-season plan revolving around acquiring him from Jed Hoyer’s Padres. Hoyer has noted that a contract extension with Gonzalez is “definitely on the docket”, and he would like to keep him playing for his native San Diego; however with A-Gonz in line for a major free agent deal after 2011, it makes you wonder if the Padres and their $40M payroll will be able to hang on to him much longer (former Padres GM Kevin Towers agrees). Okay, so here’s fantasy off-season plan A (for Adrian):

Post-2009: Roster locks and losses

We’ve covered our impending free agents here. Now we need to step back and see what the team looks like, sans those guys we’re gonna let walk. Then we can examine our strengths and weaknesses and formulate a plan for the offseason. Let’s take a look at what the Red Sox have already in-house, and what players could be gone:

2010 Free agent profile: John Lackey

While we’re on the topic of starting pitchers, there seems to be a lot of interest in 30-year old John Lackey, the big righty who silenced the Red Sox in Game 1 of this year’s ALDS. It has been widely reported that the Angels are not at all confident that they can retain his services after this season. Should he go to free agency, it would likely make him the biggest name free agent pitcher this offseason. Nice, solid FIPs from year-to-year, pretty good groundball percentage (43.2% lifetime), low BB rates and steady K rates; there’s a lot to like here.

10-22-09 Links: Successful surgeries, Aroldis, Kikuchi, staff changes and Bay versus Holliday

Tim Wakefield had successful back surgery yesterday, and is expected to make a full recovery in time for Spring Training 2010. I hope this means he can come back for an encore. Outfield prospect Zach Daeges also had surgery to remove an extra bone in his ankle, which sidelined him for the 2009 season. His prognosis is also good going forward.

2010 Free agent profile: Ben Sheets

And now for a primer on the other free agent starter out there, Ben Sheets. When he is right, Sheets is a top-of-the-rotation type (at least in the NL). He boasts a solid strikeout rate and very good control of his 93 mph fastball, hard 80 mph curve and solid changeup. He lost his 2009 season due to having surgery on February 12 to repair his right elbow flexor tendon. According to Jayson Stark, Jason Jennings underwent the same surgery and returned one and a half years later. For what it’s worth, Jennings has his velocity back, but has only recently begun to look like the pitcher he was back in 2006.

2010 Free agent profile: Rich Harden

All right Red Sox fans, start your engines. There was a lot of excitement this week when Rich Harden came up as a free agent the Red Sox may be looking at. The 6-1 righty broke into the Majors at age 21 with Oakland, featuring a then mid-90s fastball and some of the nastiest pitches even to come out of Texas. He was known for his slider and split-finger fastball at that time, which were just phenomenal. Plagued by injuries his whole career, Harden has topped 30 games started just once in 7 seasons. His 26 starts in 2009 was actually his second-most ever. Given that background, how much should we offer the hard-throwing righty?