2010 Hot Stove: The case against Bay

Look, I love Jason Bay as a human being. And I appreciate all that he’s done for the Red Sox since arriving in Boston a season and a half ago. But he’s just not the guy for the Red Sox to sign this offseason – he’s coming off a career year and a half, and he plays defense roughly like a bump on a log. To think that he may sign a deal on par with or even bigger than Matt Holliday this offseason just boggles my mind.

Links: Sox to meet with Beckett, Hazen staying, AFL update

The Red Sox plan to meet with Josh Beckett to discuss his future with Boston. This is a contract year, and I wouldn’t mind seeing him locked up for a 2-3 more seasons.

Despite interviewing with the San Diego Padres and their new GM Jed Hoyer, director of player development Mike Hazen has decided to stay with Boston. That’s despite the fact that Hazen was a player in the Padres’ system at one time; that’s an encouragement.

Dustin Richardson has been selected to the AFL All-Star team. After his star dimmed a bit over the last year or so, the lefty looked impressive with the Sox this year and is throwing harder than ever. Casey Kelly and Jose Iglesias are splitting time at shortstop, and Kelly hopes to decide soon – offense or defense?

Hot Stove 2010: Sign Matt Holliday

You’re going about this all wrong. Would it be nice to get an elite slugger or a young ace this offseason? Of course! But at what price? Despite how it looked at times, the lineup is strong, and finished 3rd in runs scored, despite playing Nick Green and Jason Varitek as much as we did. And the rotation already has four strong pitchers if Daisuke Matsuzaka can come back. Trading Clay Buchholz now is the wrong move; he will give you 80-90% of what Hernandez will over the next four years at a bargain price. The Red Sox have talent and should continue to build from within. We certainly need to address that left field vacancy, as well as the lack of pop in the lineup; signing Matt Holliday should be enough on both counts, and we can fill in as needed around these guys. Here’s how to approach the off-season with measured restraint:

Links: Mills gone, Sox meet Chapman, more

Brad Mills has been tapped as the new manager of the Houston Astros, and Terry Francona is happy for his good friend. Word is that the Sox may promote from within, and the rumors are swirling around current Pawtucket manager Ron Johnson.

The Red Sox met with Aroldis Chapman this week, but it’s not clear how serious the talks were; he’s met with at least nine other teams, which to me spells bidding war. Meanwhile, Yusei Kikuchi will play for the Seibu Lions in the Nippon League next year.

2010 Projections: Free agent LFs

My new and improved projections for 2010 are already nearing beta status. Without further comment, projections for some key free agent left fielders (ZiPS added for comparison where available, denoted by -Z):

Hot Stove 2010: Trading for Felix Hernandez

Look, you’re being too short-sighted here. Getting a big bat would be great, but this is a contract year for Josh Beckett and we don’t know what we’ll have in Daisuke Matsuzaka. Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz are great, but two guys does not a rotation make. What are we gonna do if Beckett flies the coop for a deal near $20M/year? What we really should be doing is trading to ensure our future. Solidify the rotation, then you you can go and build the rest of the squad. And there’s no better building block out there than 24-year old Felix Hernandez. Here’s fantasy off-season option B:

Hot Stove 2010: Trading for Adrian Gonzalez

It seems that an Adrian Gonzalez trade is drumming up the most excitement in Red Sox Nation so far, so let’s formulate an off-season plan revolving around acquiring him from Jed Hoyer’s Padres. Hoyer has noted that a contract extension with Gonzalez is “definitely on the docket”, and he would like to keep him playing for his native San Diego; however with A-Gonz in line for a major free agent deal after 2011, it makes you wonder if the Padres and their $40M payroll will be able to hang on to him much longer (former Padres GM Kevin Towers agrees). Okay, so here’s fantasy off-season plan A (for Adrian):

Post-2009: Setting a plan for this offseason

It’s all well and good to consider all of the free agents and trade possibilities out there, but in my mind, you have to set a direction by placing the most important piece of the puzzle first. Then you fill out the roster based on what you have to do to get that piece. Here’s a look at some of the major pieces available, and what it might cost to land them.

2009-10-26 Links: Hoyer gone, Kikuchi says no

Jed Hoyer is going to be the man in San Diego. Congratulations, Jed, you’ve earned the opportunity. The official announcement will happen today.

Peter Abraham reports that Yusei Kikuchi has opted to play Japanese professional baseball first. Also, Brad Mills is one of three finalists in line to be the next manager of the Astros.

Post-2009: Roster locks and losses

We’ve covered our impending free agents here. Now we need to step back and see what the team looks like, sans those guys we’re gonna let walk. Then we can examine our strengths and weaknesses and formulate a plan for the offseason. Let’s take a look at what the Red Sox have already in-house, and what players could be gone: