Links 2009-11-23: Holliday vs Bay, shopping Lowell, Manuel claim, Drew’s shoulder, Sox Hot Stove

There’s a really long article with lots of pretty pictures on Baseball Analysts (one of my long-time favorite sites) comparing Matt Holliday and Jason Bay. Holliday seems to cover the plate better, but Bay’s command of the strike zone is impressive; that 15.0% walk rate this year was not an accident. Bay also seems to be a better fastball hitter, though he pulls a lot and Holliday sprays the ball and uses the field more. From the charts it looks like if you want to get Holliday out, you throw a mixture of breaking stuff in the dirt and high heat.

2009-11-17 Links: Minor league free agents, Adrian Gonzalez, Hermida

The Red Sox lost a number of players to minor league free agency this week. These players are no longer a part of the organization, though I wouldn’t be surprised to see some of them come back:

P Devern Hansack, P Charlie Zink, P Jose Vadequano, SS Angel Chavez, SS Iggy Suarez, P Dave McKae, 2B Travis Denker, P Jarod Plummer, P Derrick Loop, OF Brad Correll

The Red Sox also lost a number of players when they were taken off the 40-man roster and they opted for free agency:

RP Takashi Saito, RP Javier Lopez, 2B Nick Green, C George Kottaras, 1B/OF Jeff Bailey, 2B Gil Velasquez, RP Marcus McBeth, RP Billy Traber, RP Enrique Gonzalez

No one expected Saito to return, but the loss of lefties Lopez and Traber means that we have to sign at least one lefty reliever this offseason. There are a number of quality major league free agents available, and names like Casey Fossum and Chris Capuano are available as minor league free agents.

2009-11-16 Links: Free agents and defensive evaluations, Sox top prospects, Varitek

Matt Holliday will likely get the biggest deal this offseason, but he’s no Mark Teixeira.

John Lackey might not be as good a signing as some think, warns FanGraphs.

FanGraphs gives an argument as to why trading for David DeJesus might be a better move than overpaying for a top free agent left fielder this offseason. Xavier Nady could be average with the bat, but don’t expect his arm to be what it used to be.

Links: Arbitration, winter league prospects, etc

The Extra Bases blog lists those players who are eligible for salary arbitration this offseason: Jonathan Papelbon, Ramon Ramirez, Hideki Okajima, Jeremy Hermida, Casey Kotchman, Manny Delcarmen, Fernando Cabrera and Brian Anderson. Boston must offer them a contract by December 12, or else they become non-tendered free agents. They consider Cabrera and Anderson likely to be non-tender candidates.

Hot Stove 2010: Interest in Matsui overstated

There was a shockwave a couple of days ago when a Japanese media outlet claimed that the Red Sox were prepared to make a multi-year offer to Yankees free agent Hideki Matsui. I was skeptical about the rumor from the beginning, because Matsui can still hit and get on base, but he’s owner of two arthritic knees and can’t really play the field anymore. Even if relegated to DH duty, I’m not sure you can count on him as an everyday option.

Now it’s being reported that Boston’s interest in the slugger is nothing beyond just thinking about him as an option. He’s a DH, and we have one of those already.

Links: Analysis of Bard, Harden

Found a couple of great pitching articles, and just had to link them here:

Harry Pavlidis breaks down Daniel Bard’s slider. Very in-depth and insightful analysis using PITCHf/x data. He argues that Bard should give up the slurvy version of his slider and stick to the slutter, as the Red Sox are suggesting.

Remember my analysis of Rich Harden? Despite dropping to the use of just two pitches, I explained his success by referencing his excellent changeup. There’s a great piece on Driveline Mechanics that suggests that lost in the PITCHf/x classification is another fastball variant that is pretty unique and looks suspiciously like a cutter. Whatever it is, Harden’s using to very good effect.

Links: Varitek exercises option, Bay, and Hot Stove chatter

As expected, catcher Jason Varitek has chosen to exercise his $3M player option to stay with the Red Sox in 2010. My guess is that the front office will keep him on as the backup catcher until he starts hitting (er, whatever that was) like he did in the second half of 2009. The Sox have already announced that they plan to make Victor Martinez the “full-time” catcher next year, which basically means he’ll be catching a lot more than 50% of games, as he has done for the last few years. Let’s hope his body and hitting hold up under the extra workload.

All the comparisons have been between Jason Bay and Matt Holliday, but Dave Cameron touts Mike Cameron (no relation) as a better free agent signing. Preview: it is about the defense, but even if you discount the UZR numbers 50%, it still works out in Cameron’s favor. Bay is likely to sign for as much as 5/85, while Cameron may get 1/10. R.J. Anderson confirms what I said about the rumor that the Sox had an offer of 4/60 on the table for Bay, that it’s probably just a Scott Boras lie.

Hot Stove 2010: Sox bring back Victor Martinez, Wakefield

With the initial GM meetings underway and time running out to re-sign potential free agents, the Sox have announced that they have exercised the $7.1M option on C/1B Victor Martinez. We fully expect that Martinez will stick around and be a major contributor this season, a contract year.

They have also announced a two-year contract with longtime Sox starter Tim Wakefield worth $5M plus roughly $2M more in incentives. I think Wake was already a bargain at $4M/year, so this is icing on the cake for the Red Sox.

Earlier this week, the Sox declined the $6M option on shortstop Alex Gonzalez as well as the $5M option on Jason Varitek.

Links: Sox to meet with Beckett, Hazen staying, AFL update

The Red Sox plan to meet with Josh Beckett to discuss his future with Boston. This is a contract year, and I wouldn’t mind seeing him locked up for a 2-3 more seasons.

Despite interviewing with the San Diego Padres and their new GM Jed Hoyer, director of player development Mike Hazen has decided to stay with Boston. That’s despite the fact that Hazen was a player in the Padres’ system at one time; that’s an encouragement.

Dustin Richardson has been selected to the AFL All-Star team. After his star dimmed a bit over the last year or so, the lefty looked impressive with the Sox this year and is throwing harder than ever. Casey Kelly and Jose Iglesias are splitting time at shortstop, and Kelly hopes to decide soon – offense or defense?

Links: Mills gone, Sox meet Chapman, more

Brad Mills has been tapped as the new manager of the Houston Astros, and Terry Francona is happy for his good friend. Word is that the Sox may promote from within, and the rumors are swirling around current Pawtucket manager Ron Johnson.

The Red Sox met with Aroldis Chapman this week, but it’s not clear how serious the talks were; he’s met with at least nine other teams, which to me spells bidding war. Meanwhile, Yusei Kikuchi will play for the Seibu Lions in the Nippon League next year.