10-13-2011: Some random thoughts on free agents

I don’t know about you, but I’m ready to leave all this clubhouse talk behind and start thinking about next year. We’ve got a number of decisions to make on our own guys, and I’ve heard lots of names bandied about, which I’d like to weigh in on and discuss.

David Ortiz, DH (age 36 next year)

The guy has been great for us, and he had a wonderful bounceback year. I expect he’ll be wanting a three- or even four-year deal, but I would like to see the Sox spend no more than 2/20 on him if he stays. Is anyone convinced that he will definitely duplicate his numbers next year? How about in two years? Three? Given his age and his recent comments, maybe we SHOULD let him go, take our draft picks and let Kevin Youkilis DH. We can sign a stopgap third sacker and let him compete with Jed Lowrie/Mike Aviles for the job until Will Middlebrooks is ready.

C.J. Wilson, SP (age 31 next year)

6-24-2011: Gonzalez, Ortiz and inter-league play

I’m not sure what all the uproar is about. Adrian Gonzalez is the better hitter. He’s the better fielder by far at first base. Ergo, David Ortiz should grab some pine and be ready to pinch hit. Okay, nine games is a long time, and maybe you want to give Papi a start or two in there, but nothing more than that.

As for Gonzalez out in right field (or left)? The man is a $150M investment and a Gold-Glove first baseman. I understand that he’s willing to do whatever helps the team, and he’s not totally inexperienced out there, but he’s not used to running full-tilt to snag flies, or catching balls against the wall or rushing a throw to the plate. Why put him in an unfamiliar situation where he might hurt himself and be out for much longer than a game with Big Papi at first?

Link 3-24-2011: BA’s ranking of farm systems

Baseball America lists the Red Sox system at 17th, even after the loss of Casey Kelly and Anthony Rizzo this offseason, plus the uncertain situation of Ryan Westmoreland (that’s not too bad, considering). The Padres are notably 8th on the list.

One slightly worrying thing: three of the the top 5 farm systems are in the AL East, and Tampa Bay has stockpiled draft picks like no one else. I expect them to be back in force in a few years. The one that’s missing? Baltimore at number 22.

2-3-2011: Those free-spending Sox

Sox Therapy has looked at the numbers, and this year’s Red Sox is pretty much spending what last year’s Red Sox did, maybe with just a touch of inflation. I’d say it’s a much better team for the money today, wouldn’t you?

Oh, and in case you missed this post at The Hardball Times, Matt Binder shows MLB team spending over the last 10 years by team and division. Pretty interesting to see it all out there like that. The AL Beast is a hungry salary monster, outspending every other division, and not by a little.

12-9-2010: Why Carl Crawford is (probably) worth $20M per year

As I wrote my about the signing of Carl Crawford last night, lost in the ecstasy of the moment was the realization that we had just paid over $20M/season for a guy with a career .337 OBP and .444 SLG percentage. Like many others, this morning I started thinking: was it really worth it for us to spend like a drunken sailor on Crawford? And after doing some due diligence, I think the answer is yes. Let me explain.

Defense is underpaid in today’s game

Remember Moneyball, and how teams started signing players based on OBP after it came out? The real point of the book was not so much that on-base percentage was everything. Rather, it’s that you go after whatever is undervalued in the market to gain a competitive advantage. It has been suggested, and not by a few, that today’s undervalued asset is defense, primarily because it’s hard to measure and evaluations can be so subjective.

12-5-2010: Red Sox trade for Adrian Gonzalez

It happened a bit faster than what I projected, but the Red Sox are reportedly close to completing a deal that would send Casey Kelly, Anthony Rizzo, Reymond Fuentes and a PTBNL to the San Diego Padres for one Adrian Gonzalez. According to many sources, he has passed his physical and it is a done deal. The Red Sox have until 2 PM today to negotiate a contract extension with Gonzalez, who has just one year left on his contract.

If they don’t extend him right now, the deal can still be completed and he can be extended later on, and that might actually be beneficial, points out Alex Speier. So don’t be shocked if no extension gets announced along with the trade.

What we are getting

Gonzalez is a bona fide superstar, having topped 30 HR each of the past four seasons and 100 RBI in three of those (he had 99 RBI back in 2009). Consider that the Padres offense as a whole has been abysmal, not even reaching 700 runs scored since 2007, so he regularly gets the Barry Bonds treatment (35 intentional walks last year alone). Add to that the fact that PETCO Park is one of the worst hitters parks for left-handed batters in all of baseball, and his track record there is just incredible.

Adjust for the transition to the AL, then playing half his games in Fenway against the AL East, and we get a conservative line of .279/.364/.509 for 2011. That’s more than 4 wins based on offense alone. Once you add everything else, we’re talking about a 5-6 win player.

Links 11-24-2010: V-Mart reactions, catcher

The news yesterday of Victor Martinez signing with the Tigers has ignited a lot of skepticism about the Red Sox for next season, but it’s still WAAAY too early to judge this offseason. It’s hard to keep perspective on the situation when Detroit’s winning bid was just $8M more than our best offer; for a team like the Red Sox, that’s easily absorbed over four seasons. They simply didn’t like him as their catcher for the long haul, and we have plenty of other needs to fill.

What do we do about catcher now? Everyone is agreed that we have some potentially good options in the pipeline, but we’ll need to sign someone for the short-term while we wait to see what exactly we have in Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Salty knows he needs to capitalize on this opportunity; let’s just hope he doesn’t pressure himself too much, because the fans won’t cut him much slack, I’m afraid. With the departure of Martinez, catcher could become our new shortstop, that seemingly unfillable position that leaves fans dissatisfied every year.

Links 7-30-2010: Down to the (waiver) wire, SoS

Those of us hoping for a last-minute Mike Lowell deal, it ain’t happening now (at least RIGHT now), even with his record-setting performance at Pawtucket this week. The two clubs who showed interest in the veteran have gone in other directions – the Rangers landed Jorge Cantu, and the Tigers traded for Jhonny Peralta. Can’t blame them for not wanting to make the Sox any stronger. J.P. Ricciardi still sees potential for this team to roar back and into the playoffs, and he’s not the only one. Lowell is no longer with the Paw Sox, so look for him to be activated today. Maybe we’ll get some production out of him yet.

As for the bullpen situation, the Twins paid a real premium to grab Matt Capps from the Nationals; I don’t see Theo Epstein approaching that kind of a haul for any available reliever, unless Dayton Moore goes insane and the Royals decide to sell off Joakim Soria (it’s a dream, people! give it up!). As usual, Epstein’s team is working hard to get an undervalued reliever from somewhere. The latest name is Joe Thatcher of the Padres.

Something that we’ve hinted at, but now it’s been quantified – the Red Sox have had a more difficult schedule than either the Yankees or the Rays. Still a glimmer of hope in there, as things even out more in the stretch.

7-5-2010: 5 Sox All-Stars, vote for Youk, the importance of Cash, injury updates

Even though the popular vote wasn’t too Boston-friendly, the AL roster voted by the players is replete with Red Sox, including Adrian Beltre, Clay Buchholz, Jon Lester, Victor Martinez, David Ortiz and Dustin Pedroia. Beltre, Buchholz and Lester are all first-time selections, and Ortiz making it is a great tribute to his turnaround season (it still doesn’t mean we should exercise his team option, though). Kevin Youkilis still has an outside shot of making it if enough fans vote for him in the special runoff vote. Support Youk here!

Speaking of Beltre, his standout season will likely earn him comeback player of the year and Type A free agent status. Should Scott Boras take him to free agency, he will land a hefty free agent deal which I don’t see the Sox matching. For all his ability, the guy just doesn’t seem to fit in with this team’s style of play or personality. It would also be a mistake to expect a repeat of this season next year, even in Fenway.

The Replacements

With our top two catchers hitting the DL in the same week and a mess of injuries at Pawtucket, our catching depth had never been so poor. Luckily for the Sox, Kevin Cash had just been DFA’d by Houston. It’s not that Cash is anything at the plate (his lifetime batting line looks like a typical pitcher’s line), but his familiarity with the Sox staff and Tim Wakefield’s knuckleball in particular made it a no-brainer to go get him. We were lucky, because I could see us losing a lot of games in this stretch without him.

Links 6-30-2010: Team health, trade strategy, catching, Lackey, All-Star voting, more on Beltre

There is still no timetable for Jacoby Ellsbury’s return, and that undefinedness has me worrying if he’ll be back at all before mid-August. Meanwhile, it looks like Jed Lowrie is just about ready to start a rehab assignment. Don’t disrespect mononucleosis.

Predictably, Theo Epstein is taking a conservative approach as we approach the month of mid-season trading. He wants to evaluate the depth we’ve got in-house more before making a move that will cost us prospects. Makes some sense, as we’re only a game out of first while missing 2/3 of our starting outfield most of this season. Epstein notes that he is very concerned about the state of our bullpen, but also stresses that he is not ready to give away good prospects for relief help.

With Victor Martinez on the shelf, Jason Varitek steps into the starting role once again. Now, aren’t you thankful for player options? It may actually be a good thing for Martinez to rest up, and Varitek ranks 14th on Beyond the Boxscore’s catcher defensive rankings, while Martinez is number 84 out of 90 Major League catchers. Why is Gustavo Molina up as the backup? Because he’s had some experience catching the knuckler. That’s another reason why the Sox were looking at acquiring Kevin Cash as well.

John Lackey was very solid last night against Tampa Bay. Not great, but solid. If there’s one bright spot to his year thus far, it’s that he’s performing best at Fenway, the place that he supposedly hated.

The Red Sox are all hurting in the All-Star voting process. ESPN’s Rob Neyer lists some of the more deserving AL All-Stars who are currently lagging in the voting and may not get selected. From the Red Sox, it’s our very own Kevin Youkilis.

David Golebiewski of FanGraphs writes yet another ode to Adrian Beltre. It’s true, he’s having just a phenomenal season. I look at the way he swings at everything, and I wonder how he can possibly be hitting .349, but there it is.