Links 2009-11-23: Holliday vs Bay, shopping Lowell, Manuel claim, Drew’s shoulder, Sox Hot Stove

There’s a really long article with lots of pretty pictures on Baseball Analysts (one of my long-time favorite sites) comparing Matt Holliday and Jason Bay. Holliday seems to cover the plate better, but Bay’s command of the strike zone is impressive; that 15.0% walk rate this year was not an accident. Bay also seems to be a better fastball hitter, though he pulls a lot and Holliday sprays the ball and uses the field more. From the charts it looks like if you want to get Holliday out, you throw a mixture of breaking stuff in the dirt and high heat.

2009-11-17 Links: Minor league free agents, Adrian Gonzalez, Hermida

The Red Sox lost a number of players to minor league free agency this week. These players are no longer a part of the organization, though I wouldn’t be surprised to see some of them come back:

P Devern Hansack, P Charlie Zink, P Jose Vadequano, SS Angel Chavez, SS Iggy Suarez, P Dave McKae, 2B Travis Denker, P Jarod Plummer, P Derrick Loop, OF Brad Correll

The Red Sox also lost a number of players when they were taken off the 40-man roster and they opted for free agency:

RP Takashi Saito, RP Javier Lopez, 2B Nick Green, C George Kottaras, 1B/OF Jeff Bailey, 2B Gil Velasquez, RP Marcus McBeth, RP Billy Traber, RP Enrique Gonzalez

No one expected Saito to return, but the loss of lefties Lopez and Traber means that we have to sign at least one lefty reliever this offseason. There are a number of quality major league free agents available, and names like Casey Fossum and Chris Capuano are available as minor league free agents.

2009-11-16 Links: Free agents and defensive evaluations, Sox top prospects, Varitek

Matt Holliday will likely get the biggest deal this offseason, but he’s no Mark Teixeira.

John Lackey might not be as good a signing as some think, warns FanGraphs.

FanGraphs gives an argument as to why trading for David DeJesus might be a better move than overpaying for a top free agent left fielder this offseason. Xavier Nady could be average with the bat, but don’t expect his arm to be what it used to be.

Links: Arbitration, winter league prospects, etc

The Extra Bases blog lists those players who are eligible for salary arbitration this offseason: Jonathan Papelbon, Ramon Ramirez, Hideki Okajima, Jeremy Hermida, Casey Kotchman, Manny Delcarmen, Fernando Cabrera and Brian Anderson. Boston must offer them a contract by December 12, or else they become non-tendered free agents. They consider Cabrera and Anderson likely to be non-tender candidates.

Links: Analysis of Bard, Harden

Found a couple of great pitching articles, and just had to link them here:

Harry Pavlidis breaks down Daniel Bard’s slider. Very in-depth and insightful analysis using PITCHf/x data. He argues that Bard should give up the slurvy version of his slider and stick to the slutter, as the Red Sox are suggesting.

Remember my analysis of Rich Harden? Despite dropping to the use of just two pitches, I explained his success by referencing his excellent changeup. There’s a great piece on Driveline Mechanics that suggests that lost in the PITCHf/x classification is another fastball variant that is pretty unique and looks suspiciously like a cutter. Whatever it is, Harden’s using to very good effect.

Links: Sox to meet with Beckett, Hazen staying, AFL update

The Red Sox plan to meet with Josh Beckett to discuss his future with Boston. This is a contract year, and I wouldn’t mind seeing him locked up for a 2-3 more seasons.

Despite interviewing with the San Diego Padres and their new GM Jed Hoyer, director of player development Mike Hazen has decided to stay with Boston. That’s despite the fact that Hazen was a player in the Padres’ system at one time; that’s an encouragement.

Dustin Richardson has been selected to the AFL All-Star team. After his star dimmed a bit over the last year or so, the lefty looked impressive with the Sox this year and is throwing harder than ever. Casey Kelly and Jose Iglesias are splitting time at shortstop, and Kelly hopes to decide soon – offense or defense?

Hot Stove 2010: Sign Matt Holliday

You’re going about this all wrong. Would it be nice to get an elite slugger or a young ace this offseason? Of course! But at what price? Despite how it looked at times, the lineup is strong, and finished 3rd in runs scored, despite playing Nick Green and Jason Varitek as much as we did. And the rotation already has four strong pitchers if Daisuke Matsuzaka can come back. Trading Clay Buchholz now is the wrong move; he will give you 80-90% of what Hernandez will over the next four years at a bargain price. The Red Sox have talent and should continue to build from within. We certainly need to address that left field vacancy, as well as the lack of pop in the lineup; signing Matt Holliday should be enough on both counts, and we can fill in as needed around these guys. Here’s how to approach the off-season with measured restraint:

Links: Mills gone, Sox meet Chapman, more

Brad Mills has been tapped as the new manager of the Houston Astros, and Terry Francona is happy for his good friend. Word is that the Sox may promote from within, and the rumors are swirling around current Pawtucket manager Ron Johnson.

The Red Sox met with Aroldis Chapman this week, but it’s not clear how serious the talks were; he’s met with at least nine other teams, which to me spells bidding war. Meanwhile, Yusei Kikuchi will play for the Seibu Lions in the Nippon League next year.

Hot Stove 2010: Trading for Felix Hernandez

Look, you’re being too short-sighted here. Getting a big bat would be great, but this is a contract year for Josh Beckett and we don’t know what we’ll have in Daisuke Matsuzaka. Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz are great, but two guys does not a rotation make. What are we gonna do if Beckett flies the coop for a deal near $20M/year? What we really should be doing is trading to ensure our future. Solidify the rotation, then you you can go and build the rest of the squad. And there’s no better building block out there than 24-year old Felix Hernandez. Here’s fantasy off-season option B:

Post-2009: Roster locks and losses

We’ve covered our impending free agents here. Now we need to step back and see what the team looks like, sans those guys we’re gonna let walk. Then we can examine our strengths and weaknesses and formulate a plan for the offseason. Let’s take a look at what the Red Sox have already in-house, and what players could be gone: