Hot Stove 2010: Sox ‘making push’ for Halladay

According to the NY Daily News, the Red Sox are “putting on a full-court press” in an attempt to trade for Toronto starter Roy Halladay before the Winter Meetings on Dec 7. The article suggests that Toronto would want Clay Buchholz and Casey Kelly back, but I seriously doubt that’s gonna happen.

Is Halladay worth paying one of our Major League starters plus a prospect for? I think the answer is an unequivocal yes, though I don’t think that prospect should be Kelly. People wonder why acquiring a 33-year old pitcher is desirable, given we have a 26-year old stud in Buchholz; I think it’s a little underappreciated exactly how good Halladay is.

Links 2009-11-23: Holliday vs Bay, shopping Lowell, Manuel claim, Drew’s shoulder, Sox Hot Stove

There’s a really long article with lots of pretty pictures on Baseball Analysts (one of my long-time favorite sites) comparing Matt Holliday and Jason Bay. Holliday seems to cover the plate better, but Bay’s command of the strike zone is impressive; that 15.0% walk rate this year was not an accident. Bay also seems to be a better fastball hitter, though he pulls a lot and Holliday sprays the ball and uses the field more. From the charts it looks like if you want to get Holliday out, you throw a mixture of breaking stuff in the dirt and high heat.

Links: Arbitration, winter league prospects, etc

The Extra Bases blog lists those players who are eligible for salary arbitration this offseason: Jonathan Papelbon, Ramon Ramirez, Hideki Okajima, Jeremy Hermida, Casey Kotchman, Manny Delcarmen, Fernando Cabrera and Brian Anderson. Boston must offer them a contract by December 12, or else they become non-tendered free agents. They consider Cabrera and Anderson likely to be non-tender candidates.

Links: Varitek exercises option, Bay, and Hot Stove chatter

As expected, catcher Jason Varitek has chosen to exercise his $3M player option to stay with the Red Sox in 2010. My guess is that the front office will keep him on as the backup catcher until he starts hitting (er, whatever that was) like he did in the second half of 2009. The Sox have already announced that they plan to make Victor Martinez the “full-time” catcher next year, which basically means he’ll be catching a lot more than 50% of games, as he has done for the last few years. Let’s hope his body and hitting hold up under the extra workload.

All the comparisons have been between Jason Bay and Matt Holliday, but Dave Cameron touts Mike Cameron (no relation) as a better free agent signing. Preview: it is about the defense, but even if you discount the UZR numbers 50%, it still works out in Cameron’s favor. Bay is likely to sign for as much as 5/85, while Cameron may get 1/10. R.J. Anderson confirms what I said about the rumor that the Sox had an offer of 4/60 on the table for Bay, that it’s probably just a Scott Boras lie.

Links: Sox to meet with Beckett, Hazen staying, AFL update

The Red Sox plan to meet with Josh Beckett to discuss his future with Boston. This is a contract year, and I wouldn’t mind seeing him locked up for a 2-3 more seasons.

Despite interviewing with the San Diego Padres and their new GM Jed Hoyer, director of player development Mike Hazen has decided to stay with Boston. That’s despite the fact that Hazen was a player in the Padres’ system at one time; that’s an encouragement.

Dustin Richardson has been selected to the AFL All-Star team. After his star dimmed a bit over the last year or so, the lefty looked impressive with the Sox this year and is throwing harder than ever. Casey Kelly and Jose Iglesias are splitting time at shortstop, and Kelly hopes to decide soon – offense or defense?

Projections: 2010 Red Sox

Here are my early projections for this year’s team! I use a weighted three-year projection which incorporates regression, batted ball data and historical rate statistics. I have not made any adjustments for age or playing time as of yet. More details on my methodology at my other site, FantasyScope Baseball Blog.

Hot Stove 2010: Sign Matt Holliday

You’re going about this all wrong. Would it be nice to get an elite slugger or a young ace this offseason? Of course! But at what price? Despite how it looked at times, the lineup is strong, and finished 3rd in runs scored, despite playing Nick Green and Jason Varitek as much as we did. And the rotation already has four strong pitchers if Daisuke Matsuzaka can come back. Trading Clay Buchholz now is the wrong move; he will give you 80-90% of what Hernandez will over the next four years at a bargain price. The Red Sox have talent and should continue to build from within. We certainly need to address that left field vacancy, as well as the lack of pop in the lineup; signing Matt Holliday should be enough on both counts, and we can fill in as needed around these guys. Here’s how to approach the off-season with measured restraint:

Hot Stove 2010: Trading for Felix Hernandez

Look, you’re being too short-sighted here. Getting a big bat would be great, but this is a contract year for Josh Beckett and we don’t know what we’ll have in Daisuke Matsuzaka. Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz are great, but two guys does not a rotation make. What are we gonna do if Beckett flies the coop for a deal near $20M/year? What we really should be doing is trading to ensure our future. Solidify the rotation, then you you can go and build the rest of the squad. And there’s no better building block out there than 24-year old Felix Hernandez. Here’s fantasy off-season option B:

Post-2009: Setting a plan for this offseason

It’s all well and good to consider all of the free agents and trade possibilities out there, but in my mind, you have to set a direction by placing the most important piece of the puzzle first. Then you fill out the roster based on what you have to do to get that piece. Here’s a look at some of the major pieces available, and what it might cost to land them.

Post-2009: Roster locks and losses

We’ve covered our impending free agents here. Now we need to step back and see what the team looks like, sans those guys we’re gonna let walk. Then we can examine our strengths and weaknesses and formulate a plan for the offseason. Let’s take a look at what the Red Sox have already in-house, and what players could be gone: