Hot Stove 2010: Interest in Matsui overstated

There was a shockwave a couple of days ago when a Japanese media outlet claimed that the Red Sox were prepared to make a multi-year offer to Yankees free agent Hideki Matsui. I was skeptical about the rumor from the beginning, because Matsui can still hit and get on base, but he’s owner of two arthritic knees and can’t really play the field anymore. Even if relegated to DH duty, I’m not sure you can count on him as an everyday option.

Now it’s being reported that Boston’s interest in the slugger is nothing beyond just thinking about him as an option. He’s a DH, and we have one of those already.

Links: Varitek exercises option, Bay, and Hot Stove chatter

As expected, catcher Jason Varitek has chosen to exercise his $3M player option to stay with the Red Sox in 2010. My guess is that the front office will keep him on as the backup catcher until he starts hitting (er, whatever that was) like he did in the second half of 2009. The Sox have already announced that they plan to make Victor Martinez the “full-time” catcher next year, which basically means he’ll be catching a lot more than 50% of games, as he has done for the last few years. Let’s hope his body and hitting hold up under the extra workload.

All the comparisons have been between Jason Bay and Matt Holliday, but Dave Cameron touts Mike Cameron (no relation) as a better free agent signing. Preview: it is about the defense, but even if you discount the UZR numbers 50%, it still works out in Cameron’s favor. Bay is likely to sign for as much as 5/85, while Cameron may get 1/10. R.J. Anderson confirms what I said about the rumor that the Sox had an offer of 4/60 on the table for Bay, that it’s probably just a Scott Boras lie.

Hot Stove 2010: Milton Bradley available

I know, he’s an injury risk and a punk, but outfielder Milton Bradley is reportedly eminently available. After signing him to a 3-year deal just last offseason, the Cubbies can’t wait to deal him. As we know, the Red Sox front office is all about “value” these days (for better or for worse). In baseball, one man’s garbage could be another man’s treasure; and this garbage could come cheap, given the circumstances.

2010 Hot Stove: The case against Bay

Look, I love Jason Bay as a human being. And I appreciate all that he’s done for the Red Sox since arriving in Boston a season and a half ago. But he’s just not the guy for the Red Sox to sign this offseason – he’s coming off a career year and a half, and he plays defense roughly like a bump on a log. To think that he may sign a deal on par with or even bigger than Matt Holliday this offseason just boggles my mind.

Hot Stove 2010: Trading for Felix Hernandez

Look, you’re being too short-sighted here. Getting a big bat would be great, but this is a contract year for Josh Beckett and we don’t know what we’ll have in Daisuke Matsuzaka. Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz are great, but two guys does not a rotation make. What are we gonna do if Beckett flies the coop for a deal near $20M/year? What we really should be doing is trading to ensure our future. Solidify the rotation, then you you can go and build the rest of the squad. And there’s no better building block out there than 24-year old Felix Hernandez. Here’s fantasy off-season option B:

Hot Stove 2010: Trading for Adrian Gonzalez

It seems that an Adrian Gonzalez trade is drumming up the most excitement in Red Sox Nation so far, so let’s formulate an off-season plan revolving around acquiring him from Jed Hoyer’s Padres. Hoyer has noted that a contract extension with Gonzalez is “definitely on the docket”, and he would like to keep him playing for his native San Diego; however with A-Gonz in line for a major free agent deal after 2011, it makes you wonder if the Padres and their $40M payroll will be able to hang on to him much longer (former Padres GM Kevin Towers agrees). Okay, so here’s fantasy off-season plan A (for Adrian):

Post-2009: Setting a plan for this offseason

It’s all well and good to consider all of the free agents and trade possibilities out there, but in my mind, you have to set a direction by placing the most important piece of the puzzle first. Then you fill out the roster based on what you have to do to get that piece. Here’s a look at some of the major pieces available, and what it might cost to land them.

Trade deadline retro: what Halladay would have cost

A blurb by Joe McDonald that claims the asking price for Toronto ace Roy Halladay was Clay Buchholz, Daniel Bard and Casey Kelly. Apparently Epstein was willing to include the first two players, but balked at including Kelly in the deal. Kelly has rapidly risen this season to be considered one of the Red Sox top prospects.

Why the Sox didn’t mess with the Johan

Sorry, bad title, I know. Interesting article out from Buster Olney. He claims that the reason the Sox were happy to let Santana to go to the Mets last season was concern over his elbow and decreased velocity. It’s easy to say that now, but if it’s true, it makes the Red Sox look like double geniuses, considering the contributions of Jon Lester, Jacoby Ellsbury and Jed Lowrie the past two years.

Speaking of the devil, congratulations to Ellsbury on his Red Sox record. And don’t look now, but Lowie is acting healthy again.

Billy Wagner blocks trade to Boston

Well, those of you who were hoping for a little left-handed bullpen help will be disappointed. Billy Wagner has officially blocked his trade to Boston after the two sides could not come to terms on his upcoming player option and arbitration. Basically, Wagner wanted the Sox to guarantee his opportunity to go to free agency this offseason as a closer; by asking them to decline his option AND not offer him arbitration, he was denying them any compensation for him, should he turn out to be a dud for two months. Apparently the player the Mets wanted was more than an organizational guy, or else the trade would have gone through.