Posted in 2008, Discussion, Lineup, Sabermetrics, Stats, tagged Manny Ramirez on May 24, 2008 | 1 Comment »
Cleanup hitter: Manny Ramirez
[B-R] [FanGraphs] [Josh Kalk] [ESPN] [HitTracker]
Well, if that picture don’t say it all. Manny has already given us a lot of promises this year: he’s not only going to hit 500 HR, but he wants to get to 600 HR. He wants to be the next Julio Franco, playing into his mid-40s. [...]
Posted in 2008, Discussion, Lineup, Sabermetrics, Stats, tagged David Ortiz on May 12, 2008 | 1 Comment »
Hitting third: David Ortiz
[B-R] [FanGraphs] [Josh Kalk] [ESPN] [HitTracker]
Few people would have predicted that David Ortiz would be hitting .241/.345/.434 on May 12. But Big Papi opened 2008 in a 3-42 slump that stretched 12 games. Since that time, he’s hit .311/393/.452. Six of his seven homers and 13 of his 14 XBH have come [...]
Posted in 2008, Discussion, Infield, Lineup, Sabermetrics, Stats, tagged Dustin Pedroia, Juan Pierre on May 8, 2008 | 1 Comment »
Hitting second: Dustin Pedroia
[B-R] [FanGraphs] [Josh Kalk] [ESPN] [Hittracker]
After winning AL Rookie of the Year honors despite a horrible April and a broken hamate bone the last month plus of 2007, Dustin Pedroia has hit the ground running in his sophomore season. No slump for this guy, who just seems to will his way on [...]
Posted in 2008, Discussion, News, Predictions, Rotation, Sabermetrics, tagged Clay Buchholz, Curt Schilling, Daisuke Matsuzaka, James Shields, Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, Matt Garza, Scott Kazmir, Tim Wakefield on March 27, 2008 | No Comments »
David Pinto was playing around with PECOTA’s numbers and came up with an interesting result: apparently the statheads at Baseball Prospectus think that Tampa Bay will have the best rotation in the AL East. The numbers have Boston somewhere between 2nd and 4th, depending on whether you use straight predictions, or you fill out the [...]
Posted in Contracts, Discussion, Predictions, Sabermetrics, Stats, tagged David Ortiz, Mo Vaughn on March 6, 2008 | No Comments »
For those of you not into sabermetrics, Dan Szymborski over at Baseball Think Factory has projected the career of David Ortiz to the year 2016, when he will be 40 years old.
Some things of note:
Papi’s walk rate is projected to drop significantly starting this season, and 2008 shows a spike in strikeouts. Personally, I don’t [...]
Posted in 2008, Bullpen, Defense, Predictions, Rotation, Sabermetrics, Stats, tagged Bartolo Colon, Bryan Corey, Bryce Cox, Clay Buchholz, Craig Hansen, Curt Schilling, Daisuke Matsuzaka, David Pauley, Devern Hansack, Hideki Okajima, Javier Lopez, Jon Lester, Jonathan Papelbon, Josh Beckett, Julian Tavarez, Kyle Snyder, Manny Delcarmen, Mike Timlin, Tim Wakefield on March 3, 2008 | No Comments »
In order to project the team’s performance this year, I’m going to look at each pitcher’s projections and trends for the coming year and use that to generate an estimated runs given up total.
Defense should be roughly the same, given that we basically have the whole starting lineup back; substituting Jacoby Ellsbury for Coco Crisp [...]
Posted in Lineup, Predictions, Sabermetrics on February 8, 2008 | 1 Comment »
Now that I’ve projected the whole starting lineup, I plugged my values into Baseball Musing’s lineup tool to see what the sum result might be this year.
Here’s the lineup I plugged in:
J. Ellsbury
D. Pedroia
D. Ortiz
M. Ramirez
K. Youkilis
M. Lowell
J. Drew
J. Varitek
J. Lugo
The result is a lineup that could produce 5.772 runs per game, or 935 runs [...]
Posted in Discussion, MLB, News, Sabermetrics, tagged C.C. Sabathia, Josh Beckett on November 13, 2007 | 1 Comment »
Most people had the Cy Young Award narrowed down to either C.C. Sabathia or Josh Beckett, and a strong end-of-the year performance by Sabathia was enough to seal the deal, as he earned 19 of 28 first-place votes. Sabathia had a slightly better ERA, more innings pitched, and more total strikeouts, mainly because Beckett missed [...]
Posted in Defense, Free Agents, Infield, Roster, Sabermetrics, Stats, tagged Mike Lowell on November 1, 2007 | 1 Comment »
For those of you still not convinced about Mike Lowell’s value:
Here’s another way to figure out a player’s value based on expected WARP-2 and current players and salaries. You simply plot what players are worth, and how much they are getting paid, and the trendline will give you a rough guideline for player value. You [...]
Posted in Discussion, Free Agents, Infield, Lineup, Outfield, Predictions, Red Sox, Roster, Sabermetrics, Stats, tagged Coco Crisp, David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jason Varitek, Julio Lugo, Kevin Youkilis, Manny Ramirez, Mike Lowell, Ryan Shealy on October 31, 2007 | No Comments »
Perhaps the number one complaint from Red Sox fans this season was the lack of offense and comeback victories. It’s true, there were times when the offense struggled a lot, but we still made out pretty darn good. We ranked 3rd in the AL and 4th among all teams with 867 runs scored in the [...]
