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Archive for the ‘Stats’ Category

You know, I try not to overreact to a particular game or string of games, because baseball is one of those marathon sports. But I need to get some things off my chest about Julio Lugo:

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Oakland came into this series struggling of late, and Boston came in on a six-game win streak. But it didn’t matter, as the A’s silenced the Boston bats and got enough offense to win all three games. The Sox are really feast or famine this year; in addition to the extreme home/road splits, they have [...]

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Cleanup hitter: Manny Ramirez
[B-R] [FanGraphs] [Josh Kalk] [ESPN] [HitTracker]
Well, if that picture don’t say it all. Manny has already given us a lot of promises this year: he’s not only going to hit 500 HR, but he wants to get to 600 HR. He wants to be the next Julio Franco, playing into his mid-40s. [...]

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Hitting third: David Ortiz
[B-R] [FanGraphs] [Josh Kalk] [ESPN] [HitTracker]
Few people would have predicted that David Ortiz would be hitting .241/.345/.434 on May 12. But Big Papi opened 2008 in a 3-42 slump that stretched 12 games. Since that time, he’s hit .311/393/.452. Six of his seven homers and 13 of his 14 XBH have come [...]

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Hitting second: Dustin Pedroia
[B-R] [FanGraphs] [Josh Kalk] [ESPN] [Hittracker]
After winning AL Rookie of the Year honors despite a horrible April and a broken hamate bone the last month plus of 2007, Dustin Pedroia has hit the ground running in his sophomore season. No slump for this guy, who just seems to will his way on [...]

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The Red Sox are currently at 15-12 this season, but considering the Japan trip and the rash of injuries and illnesses they’ve endured, I don’t consider this too bad. We are currently in a three-way tie for first place in the division, and our players are on the mend. Here’s a look at what’s gone [...]

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For those of you not into sabermetrics, Dan Szymborski over at Baseball Think Factory has projected the career of David Ortiz to the year 2016, when he will be 40 years old.
Some things of note:

Papi’s walk rate is projected to drop significantly starting this season, and 2008 shows a spike in strikeouts. Personally, I don’t [...]

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In order to project the team’s performance this year, I’m going to look at each pitcher’s projections and trends for the coming year and use that to generate an estimated runs given up total.
Defense should be roughly the same, given that we basically have the whole starting lineup back; substituting Jacoby Ellsbury for Coco Crisp [...]

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Both Theo Epstein and Terry Francona spoke this week about Coco Crisp being the “incumbent” centerfielder and the starter for the 2008 season. This despite an unspoken assumption by everyone that the job belongs to one Jacoby Ellsbury.
Some have speculated that this is just a ploy to try and build up trade value for Crisp [...]

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For those of you still not convinced about Mike Lowell’s value:
Here’s another way to figure out a player’s value based on expected WARP-2 and current players and salaries. You simply plot what players are worth, and how much they are getting paid, and the trendline will give you a rough guideline for player value. You [...]

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