8-2-2010: Minor moves at the deadline, Lowell still in play

The Red Sox, expected to land an additional bullpen arm by the deadline, dealt one instead, and made another small acquisition at catcher. It was hard watching the Yankees land Lance Berkman, Kerry Wood and Austin Kearns, and this is a signal from Boston’s front office that while we’re not giving up on this season, they’re content to let it play out and finish third if we have to. Theo Epstein is clearly thinking 2011 at this point, and I don’t really blame him.

What it will take

Currently at 60-45, the Red Sox sit 6.5 games back of Tampa Bay. If the Rays play .600 baseball the rest of the way, they will have a 100 win season, and we need to go 41-16 to edge them. If they play .550 baseball, they will still have 97 wins and we will need to go 38-19 (.667) the rest of the way. Is this team capable of that? With a healthy rotation, an easier second half schedule and the impending returns of Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury, you have to think that it’s at least possible. But it means we will have to win just about every series, and probably sweep the Rays in at least one of our two remaining series. We can’t play any worse than taking two of three from the Tigers, or we’re done. That’s why the management decided to go conservative at the deadline.

Let’s look at each move that was made:

2009 Projections: How did we do?

Now that the regular season is over, we can take a look back and compare our expectations with what we really saw. Here are the predictions I made on this blog before this season, and how it all turned out. Back in January I predicted that we would score about 835 runs, allow 729 runs and end up with a 92-70 record, winning the wild card. We got the wild card, but actually ended up with 95 wins, mainly due to the unexpected struggles of the Rays. Going into a bit more detail:

2009 Offseason: Sox settle arbitration cases, trade Aardsma

Two names were left on the salary arbitration docket, and Theo Epstein settled both of them today. Jonathan Papelbon signed a one-year, $6.25M deal, while Javier Lopez will get $1.35M for 2009. It was really just a matter of time, as the Red Sox have yet to go to arbitration with a player under Epstein’s tenure as GM.

2008 Offseason: Is it broke?

The Red Sox are positioned to field a highly competitive team for at least the next few seasons, with their veterans locked into various short-term contracts and young talent continuing to come in from their excellent farm system. GM Theo Epstein has already come out and said that the Sox will be “selective shoppers” this offseason.

2008 ALCS: Second-guessing the second-guessers

Terry Francona is getting a lot of criticism for some of his moves in the 9-8 extra inning loss at Tropicana Field last game. All of Red Sox Nation would have been ecstatic if the Sox had pulled that one out and all but locked up the series, but I don’t think it was poor managing that cost us the game.

2008 Mid-season report

At 49-32, the Boston Red Sox hold a 1-game lead over Tampa Bay in the AL East. Their .605 winning percentage is second in the AL only to the Los Angeles Angels (.608), but we have a much better run differential of +70, suggesting that they are (once again) playing over their heads a little bit and are an overrated team. That being said, the running Angels do seem pretty consistently to outperform their Pythagorean projections. So 81 games in, your Boston Red Sox are one of, if not the best, the top teams in the AL and a clear favorite to make the playoffs once again.

35-25: Sox take 3 of 4 at Baltimore

It appears that the Baltimore Orioles’ early season run of being not terrible might be over. Still, the Sox (or more precisely, Hideki Okajima) gave up the last game of the series; poised to win with just an inning and a half to go, that was a let down. I’m just looking forward to the Sox getting back to Fenway and their winning ways at home.

32-23: Anemic Sox drop two to Seattle

When the Red Sox travel, there are always a lot of friendly faces. But when they travel to Seattle, there are family members of Jon Lester, Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury present. With the Seattle Mariners quickly sliding out of contention, this was a good chance for the Sox to buoy their road woes with some W’s. Too bad that didn’t work out. With all the games so close, you have to wonder what kind of difference it would have made to have our first baseman healthy, especially in game 3 versus a lefty starter.

31-22: Sox swept out of Oakland

Oakland came into this series struggling of late, and Boston came in on a six-game win streak. But it didn’t matter, as the A’s silenced the Boston bats and got enough offense to win all three games. The Sox are really feast or famine this year; in addition to the extreme home/road splits, they have had winning streaks of 4, 5, 6 and 7 games already. They have lost three in a row twice, and had 4 and 5 game losing streaks as well in this still young season. They have been a part of 9 series sweeps in 2008, winning 5 of them and losing 4. Let’s hope the losing doesn’t continue for long this time.

31-19: Sox sweep Royals, go 7-0 on homestand

Boston swept Kansas City in this 4-game series, making it a perfect homestand. The Red Sox are quickly compiling the best home record out of anyone in baseball; they are now 21-5 at Fenway for the year. Kicking off a series with a no-hitter must do some serious psychological damage to the team that got no-hit, because the Royals struggled offensively until game 4 in this one.