The latest Red Sox news, views and rumors
March 13, 2008 7 Comments
Uh, this was a surprise. Doug Mirabelli was a late scratch from today’s lineup, and the next thing we know, he’s leaving in his street clothes. Turns out the 37-year old catcher was cut from the team today.
January 26, 2008 Leave a comment
We round out our infield with El Captain, Jason Varitek. Tek’s 2007 was a solid rebound from 2006 offensively, and his .255/.367/.421 line was very good, when you consider that AL average for the position is just .254/.318/.395. His .787 OPS was good for fourth-best among all qualifying Major League catchers, ahead of Brian McCann and Kenji Johjima. He bashed 17 HR with 67 RBI, which is still very good production from your catcher spot (especially considering all that he provides for our pitching staff behind the plate). Tek had some big hits for us in the second half, though his overall performance basically tanked (.279/.367/.439 pre-ASB, .225/.366/.398 post-ASB).
Varitek will be 36 next season, and I’ve written a number of times about how much Varitek’s bat seems to have slowed down, hurting his contact numbers. But he still uses that really heavy bat, and powers the ball well when he does make contact. He had the highest strikeout rate of his career in 2007 at 28.0%, and is hitting far fewer line drives and more fly balls than he did just two years ago. He did post the highest walk rate of his career last year at 14.0%, and he’s seeing more pitches overall (4.13 pitches/PA), so what it boils down to is that Tek is swinging at fewer offerings and therefore either gets caught looking or walks more.
Age is definitely taking its toll on Varitek, though he is still great for the position. My biggest concern is finding a replacement for the guy, as the creaky Doug Mirabelli is still installed as his backup and understudy. But back to the projection. I see Varitek’s average and power taking a significant hit this season, as his strikeout rates will remain high and he will have to sit on pitches more at the plate. He is still swinging a very balanced bat from both sides of the plate, which is a good sign, and he looks healthy enough to give us another 130 games and 500 AB this year. Because I think he’ll drop another slot in the order, I’ll expect something like .240/.340/.400 with 13 HR and 50 RBI from him in 2008.
Projection comps:
Marcels: .253/.346/.422 Bill James: .253/.349/.418 ZiPS: .249/.350/.408 CHONE: .249/.346/.422
January 10, 2008 5 Comments
I was hoping that this would be the year, but it appears that the Sox aren’t ready to move on from Doug Mirabelli quite yet. The 37-year old catcher is said to be signing a guaranteed contract worth at least $550k plus incentives. Together with Jason Varitek, the Red Sox will feature the oldest catching tandem in the Majors.
I know there’s a real comfort factor with him catching Tim Wakefield, but COME ON! Mirabelli’s batting runs above replacement have been negative for two full years, and his OPS+ numbers have been 52 and 63 the past two seasons, meaning he is about 40-50% worse than the average big league hitter. He just doesn’t have anything to offer besides catching the knuckleball, and he had six passed balls in 2007 and 11 in 2006, BTW. Are Dusty Brown and George Kottaras really more of a wasted roster spot than Mirabelli at this point?
This catching situation is getting to be a real concern, because Tek’s contract is up after this season. There’s been talk about extending him for two more years, but how long can they stick with this duo without grooming a replacement for Varitek?
MLB Trade Rumors points out that Kenji Johjima is likely to hit the free agent market after 2008, with uber-prospect Jeff Clement rising through the ranks in Seattle, and having a Japanese-speaking catcher could potentially help Daisuke Matsuzaka.
October 30, 2007 Leave a comment
The Red Sox have a number of players whose contracts are up, but the first extension I expect to hear about will be Terry Francona’s contract. He is signed through 2008 and will make $1.75M next season, but the front office will definitely offer him at least three more years.
Okay, on to the nitty gritty. Here are the players who are up for free agency, ranked in order of Value Over Replacement Player (VORP), a commonly used stat which kind of puts player values on a similar scale for hitters and pitchers. We should note that for bench players, VORP is not really an accurate indicator of their value to the team, because of the small sample size in many cases
Name VORP 2007$M VORP/$M
Mike Lowell 46.5 9.00 5.17 Curt Schilling 33.5 13.00 2.58 Tim Wakefield 23.2 4.00 5.80 Mike Timlin 14.0 2.80 5.00 Brendan Donnelly 5.9 1.40 4.21 Julian Tavarez 1.7 3.10 0.55 Matt Clement DNP 9.50 0.00 Eric Gagne -1.4 2.10 -0.67 Eric Hinske -1.5 5.63 -0.27 Royce Clayton -1.6 0.35 -4.57 Doug Mirabelli -2.2 0.75 -2.93 Bobby Kielty* -2.5 0.35 -7.14
*Includes 2007 numbers with Oakland
What we want to look for here is the most efficient contracts in the context of team need. As you can see, Mike Lowell was quite valuable to the team, and this doesn’t even count his defensive contributions. Tim Wakefield, Mike Timlin and Brendan Donnelly were bargains as well. The only other player with any real value was Curt Schilling from a statistical perspective. The Sox will have 14 days to negotiate with these players exclusively, but if a deal is not reached, they become free agents and can sign with anyone.
Let ‘em go
Matt Clement’s contract is finally up, and the Red Sox are not considering him. Julian Tavarez was a real team player for us this year, but truth be told, he is not worth what he will be paid next season. Eric Gagne, Eric Hinske, Royce Clayton, Doug Mirabelli and Bobby Kielty actually gave us negative VORP values, meaning that the average free agent player would probably have outplayed them this season. Almost guaranteed that all of these guys will walk. Especially Gagne, who will be a Type A free agent and will net two compensation picks for the Red Sox in next year’s MLB draft.
Make ‘em stay
I think the Sox will sign Wakefield for 2008, that’s pretty much a no-brainer. I also think there’s a good chance that Timlin will be back on a one-year deal, unless he chooses to retire. He likes playing for the Sox, and gave them a cheap one-year deal this season. As for Mike Lowell, I’ve already said my piece on him, and given the alternatives of Alex Rodriguez, Mike Lamb and Pedro Feliz, I’d resign him, but to no more than a 3 year/$40M contract.
Could go either way
Curt Schilling was good for us this season, and came up big again in the postseason. I wouldn’t count on a rotation of Beckett, Matsuzaka, Wakefield, Buchholz and Lester getting you through the whole season; you need to have a veteran starter in the mix. That being said, he doesn’t have to be 41 years old and he doesn’t have to make $13M. On the other hand, Schilling wants to play another year at least before retiring, and he could still have value for us. It would be nice for him to bury his career here in Boston, bloody sock, two (three?) championships and all. He will likely have to play a shortened season, much like this year, in order to be strong late in the year.
October 29, 2007 3 Comments
Coming off of a pretty successful 2007 and stocked with minor league talent, the Red Sox have a lot of options going forward. This is the first post in series designed to look at the Sox and the issues they need to address this offseason.
Red Sox potential free agents
Eric Gagne, 31 yo RP. Any client of Scott Boras knows that free agency is your payday, and Gagne will hit the market, guaranteed. He’ll find a taker for 3/27 somewhere.
Mike Lowell, 33 yo 3B. Lowell has been professional, a great clubhouse presence and a team leader on and off the field, but he is getting up there in years. What happens to him depends on the course the front office chooses to take with the team’s future. It’s thought that he will command at least a 3/40 contract.
Curt Schilling, 40 yo SP. Schilling has offered to stay one more year at $13 million (twice), but Theo’s not returning his messages. With Lester and Buchholz looking like they’ve already arrived, Schil could be the odd man out next season.
Royce Clayton, 37 yo SS. Clayton is reaching the end of his career, but might be able to land a job with a small market team.
Matt Clement, 33 yo SP. Clement will get a shot somewhere, probably a one-year, non-guaranteed deal with a club in dire need of pitching.
Eric Hinske, 30 yo 1B/LF/RF. Hinske will be too expensive to retain in a utility role, and he deserves a chance to play every day. Look for him to sign a multi-year contract for $2-4 million a year.
Bobby Kielty, 31 yo OF. Would be a wonderful fourth outfielder, but I’d be incredibly surprised if he didn’t want to go for a starting job somewhere. Could work out a 3/12 or 3/15 deal in a small or mid-size market.
Doug Mirabelli, 36 yo C. I’ve been asking for him to be replaced the last two seasons, and it looks like it might finally happen. We might already have his replacement in Kevin Cash.
Julian Tavarez, 34 yo SP/RP. Despite a bad start, Tavarez has been a team player and endeared himself as a kooky teammate. That still won’t be enough for us to re-sign him, however. Will probably sign a 1-year deal in the NL.
Tim Wakefield, 41 yo SP. This is just a formality. The Red Sox have Wakefield on a perpetual $4 million mutual option, and there’s no reason to end the agreement after the year he’s had.
Brendan Donnelly, 35 yo RP. Donnelly’s one year deal runs out, but I don’t see the Sox re-signing him at his age, right after reconstructive surgery on his arm.
Mike Timlin, 41 yo RP. Timlin signed a one-year deal, and this could be the end for him. I wouldn’t be surprised if he retired after this year. The Sox could extend him one year to see if he can come back healthy for one last hurrah.
Needs
The Red Sox are pretty set at the starting positions, even with the departure of several of the above players, but the reserves will be in a bit of disarray, checking the depth chart:
C Jason Varitek/(?)
1B Kevin Youkilis/(Chris Carter?)
2B Dustin Pedroia/Alex Cora
SS Julio Lugo/Alex Cora
3B (Mike Lowell)/(?)
RF J.D. Drew/(Jacoby Ellsbury or Brandon Moss?)
CF Coco Crisp/(Jacoby Ellsbury or Brandon Moss?)
LF Manny Ramirez/(Jacoby Ellsbury or Brandon Moss?)
SP Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Tim Wakefield, Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz
RP Hideki Okajima, Manny Delcarmen, Javier Lopez, Kyle Snyder, (Craig Hansen?)
CL Jonathan Papelbon
There are a number of concerns that need to be addressed this offseason, which I would enumerate this way:
1. Upgrade the offense.
Everyone has been disappointed with the performance of the Red Sox offense this season. Two of their big acquisitions, Drew and Lugo, failed to live up to their career numbers, let alone expectations in Beantown, and David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez were uncharacteristically less productive in 2007.
It’s reasonable to think that most of these players will rebound in 2008, but it is by no means a certainty. Especially if Lowell leaves, the Sox will have to address the lineup with one more big bat. It’s nice that Youkilis could slide back over to third base, as big boppers are easier to find over at first base. We do have to start thinking about how to replace Manny’s production, whose contract runs out after 2009 (though we do hold two options on him for 2010 and 2011). Either the lineup has to get more balanced, or we need to target a premium young bat in the next couple of offseasons.
2. Acquire the successor to Varitek.
I’ve been calling for Theo to do this since late 2006. Jason Varitek is signed only through 2008, and at 36 years old his body is quickly wearing out. We need an understudy to get in here and learn the ropes, learn the staff before it’s too late. George Kottaras is just not cutting it in the minor leagues, unfortunately, so there’s no one in the system who will be ready for several years.
3. Improve the pitching depth.
As good as our rotation can potentially be, I wouldn’t mind having Schilling around for one more season, so that he can cover the transition of Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester into the rotation full time. Should one of them struggle or need more time to develop, we need some insurance. If both of them do arrive on schedule in 2008, we can always move Schilling later on.
The bullpen could also use one more quality arm to provide depth and continue the excellent results from this season. There are some interesting names on the potential free agents list. It is also possible that the Sox could find this person from within the system, as there are a lot of guys starting to run out of options at Pawtucket.
October 2, 2007 1 Comment
All the buzz had been that 24 of 25 roster spots were accounted for already, but all that changed today, as the Red Sox announced a couple of surprise changes to the roster for the ALDS against the Angels.
Starter Tim Wakefield, expected to pitch out of the bullpen during this 5-game series, was taken off of the roster and replaced by lefty Jon Lester. This is a golden opportunity for young Lester to get a taste of the big time, and gives an added bonus of having three left-handed options out of the bullpen in this series. It seems that Wake has been battling some back pain, and needed a cortisone shot to deal with the irritation. The front office elected to have him sit this series; let’s hope he can be back should we advance to the ALCS.
Backup catcher Kevin Cash was also announced as part of the postseason roster today. The Sox will carry three catchers in an unusual move aimed at maximizing flexibility with the roster for pinch-hitting and pinch-running situations. There have been plenty of times this year where teams have walked Mike Lowell or J.D. Drew in order to face Varitek or Mirabelli in key situations. The extra day of rest in this series should allow the Sox to rest their pitchers well, and makes this kind of a move possible. My guess is that they may still be slightly worried about Mirabelli’s back, and don’t want to face a situation where we are left with one catcher. If that’s the case, why don’t they leave Mirabelli off the roster, since Wakefield is not on it?
Other notes
David Ortiz received a cortisone injection, and says that his knee is feeling really good. Let’s hope that it doesn’t flare up over the playoffs.
I was disappointed that the Sox took the 8-day series at first, but knowing that Wakefield is out makes it a little easier to swallow. I’d have preferred that we see someone besides Lackey, Escobar and Weaver, but then Joe Saunders owned us earlier this year too. I’d also have preferred that the Yankees would have had to beat Sabathia and Carmona twice each if it went that many games. As it is, hopefully our guys will get a little more chance to rest and get healthy. Everyone’s picking the Sox in this series, BTW.
September 29, 2007 2 Comments
A very strong performance by Daisuke Matsuzaka (15-12) last night, coupled with a power explosion from David Ortiz led to a 5-2 victory over the Twins last night. Put that together that with an extra-inning win by Baltimore over the Yankees, and we are the new AL East Champions! It’s the first time the Yankees have failed to win it since 1995, and I say it signals a changing of the guard in the AL East. Congratulations, guys! You really deserve it after your red hot start and hanging on through slumps, injuries, and all sorts of criticism.
Dice-K went eight strong on 119 pitches to get win number 15. That was the best I’ve seen his windup and fastball in a long time. He seemed more relaxed, and was just letting it fly instead of trying to hit the exact spot every time. Minnesota was held scoreless until the 7th inning. His ERA ends at 4.40 on the year, but I’d say that’s kind of misleading because he had so many starts where he pitched deep and allowed fewer than 2 runs (kind of like last night). Honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised if he became a top starter next season for the BoSox.
Big Papi is really turning it on at just the right time. The past 7 days, he’s hitting a monstrous .565/.655/1.130/1.785 with 3 HR, and in September his line stands at .388/.514/.800/1.314 with 8 HR and 26 RBI. He’s making a strong push to overtake Mike Lowell in RBI this season (Ortiz has 117 to Lowell’s 118). In fact, Papi’s second half is looking pretty incredible at .348/.455/.684/1.139 with 20 HR and 64 RBI. Those are peak Barry Bonds numbers there, friends. Nobody wants to pitch to Big Papi right now, and that’s just the way we want it for the postseason.
Jonathan Papelbon finished off the Twins on just 6 pitches last night for his 37th save. Looks like they were trying to take a page out of the Yankees’ playbook and be aggressive with him, but you gotta have the bats to do that, guys.
Let’s see about our playoff preparedness here: The rotation is looking pretty sharp, the bullpen is getting better (or at least Hideki Okajima is), and the lineup is pretty healthy except for Manny Ramirez, Coco Crisp and Kevin Youkilis. Jason Varitek could be more rested, so I’d start Doug Mirabelli and Kevin Cash for the remaining games. In fact, we can play all our subs the next two games, and rest up for next week. I can’t wait.
