10-14-2011: How much did Ellsbury change his projection?

Jacoby Ellsbury recently won AL Comeback Player of the Year, and with good reason. His MVP-caliber performance really buoyed this offense when they lost key contributors like Kevin Youkilis. He is definitely one of the bright spots in a season filled with bad news.

Here is what we projected for him coming into 2011, based on his previous three years of performance:

Age AB 2B 3B HR BB SO SB Avg OBP SLG wOBA wRAA
27 478 18 6 8 36 63 42 0.280 0.336 0.390 0.347 11.5
28 482 18 6 8 36 63 40 0.280 0.336 0.389 0.346 11.0
29 481 18 5 8 36 62 38 0.279 0.335 0.387 0.344 9.9
30 476 17 5 8 34 61 36 0.278 0.333 0.384 0.341 8.1
31 465 16 5 8 32 59 33 0.276 0.330 0.379 0.336 5.7
32 449 15 4 7 30 56 31 0.273 0.325 0.373 0.331 2.9
33 429 14 4 7 27 53 28 0.269 0.319 0.366 0.325 -0.1
34 404 12 4 6 24 50 26 0.265 0.312 0.358 0.318 -3.2
35 375 11 3 5 20 46 23 0.261 0.305 0.348 0.310 -6.1

Boy does that look dumb now. Once we factor in his amazing 2011, the projection now looks like this: Read more of this post

Links 3-24-2010: Pedroia’s wrist, more Spring notes

After diving for a grounder, Dustin Pedroia left yesterday’s game with a wrist injury, but the report is out today that X-rays are negative, and he is not expected to miss much time. BTW, if you appreciate defensive genius, you owe it to yourself to watch this catch by Ichiro Suzuki. Man.

The Red Sox sent Michael Bowden, Ramon A. Ramirez (not the one from last year) and Aaron Bates to Pawtucket yesterday, and assigned reliever Jorge Sosa to minor league camp. All of these moves were expected. We are now down to 40 players and 8 NRIs.

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The leadoff problem?

Some writers are making a big fuss over the poor performance of Red Sox leadoff hitters. J.D. Drew is not exactly distinguishing himself in the leadoff role, going 0-12 with just one walk since the All-Star Break. The six hitters that have been employed in that role this year have produced a composite line of .256/.306/.353, with that OBP ranking 13th in the AL. The top two AL teams in leadoff OBP this season have been Seattle (.399, mainly Ichiro Suzuki) and New York (.395, Derek Jeter). In contrast, the best OBP on the Red Sox belongs to Julio Lugo (.500 OBP in just three games), who we just DFA’d, and after him, only Jacoby Ellsbury at .320 even tops .300. How much of a problem is this, really?

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Links: An outside view of Sox prospects, Ellsbury

Jim Callis, a noted scout for Baseball America, talks about the Red Sox pitching depth in the minors. For those of you clamoring for us to deal for Roy Halladay, sometimes it helps to get an outside perspective on what we already have in our farm system. And if that’s not enough pitching prospect Kool-Aid for you, Amalie Benjamin runs down Junichi Tazawa, Nick Hagadone and Casey Kelly here.

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Dustin Pedroia, MVP?

There’s been growing talk about Dustin Pedroia being seriously considered for the AL MVP. He’s first in the league in hits, runs and batting average, and has kept our Sox battling through all kinds of injuries. He’s also in the top 10 for total bases, singles, doubles, runs created, extra-base hits and times on base. Josh Hamilton is tailing off, and now with season-ending injuries to Ian Kinsler and Carlos Quentin, could Pedey seriously win the coveted award? Read more of this post

32-23: Anemic Sox drop two to Seattle

When the Red Sox travel, there are always a lot of friendly faces. But when they travel to Seattle, there are family members of Jon Lester, Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury present. With the Seattle Mariners quickly sliding out of contention, this was a good chance for the Sox to buoy their road woes with some W’s. Too bad that didn’t work out. With all the games so close, you have to wonder what kind of difference it would have made to have our first baseman healthy, especially in game 3 versus a lefty starter.

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