10-14-2011: How much did Ellsbury change his projection?

Jacoby Ellsbury recently won AL Comeback Player of the Year, and with good reason. His MVP-caliber performance really buoyed this offense when they lost key contributors like Kevin Youkilis. He is definitely one of the bright spots in a season filled with bad news.

Here is what we projected for him coming into 2011, based on his previous three years of performance:

Age	AB	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	SB	Avg	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRAA
27	478	18	6	8	36	63	42	0.280	0.336	0.390	0.347	11.5
28	482	18	6	8	36	63	40	0.280	0.336	0.389	0.346	11.0
29	481	18	5	8	36	62	38	0.279	0.335	0.387	0.344	9.9
30	476	17	5	8	34	61	36	0.278	0.333	0.384	0.341	8.1
31	465	16	5	8	32	59	33	0.276	0.330	0.379	0.336	5.7
32	449	15	4	7	30	56	31	0.273	0.325	0.373	0.331	2.9
33	429	14	4	7	27	53	28	0.269	0.319	0.366	0.325	-0.1
34	404	12	4	6	24	50	26	0.265	0.312	0.358	0.318	-3.2
35	375	11	3	5	20	46	23	0.261	0.305	0.348	0.310	-6.1

Boy does that look dumb now. Once we factor in his amazing 2011, the projection now looks like this:

Hot Stove 2010: Sign Matt Holliday

You’re going about this all wrong. Would it be nice to get an elite slugger or a young ace this offseason? Of course! But at what price? Despite how it looked at times, the lineup is strong, and finished 3rd in runs scored, despite playing Nick Green and Jason Varitek as much as we did. And the rotation already has four strong pitchers if Daisuke Matsuzaka can come back. Trading Clay Buchholz now is the wrong move; he will give you 80-90% of what Hernandez will over the next four years at a bargain price. The Red Sox have talent and should continue to build from within. We certainly need to address that left field vacancy, as well as the lack of pop in the lineup; signing Matt Holliday should be enough on both counts, and we can fill in as needed around these guys. Here’s how to approach the off-season with measured restraint: