10-14-2011: How much did Ellsbury change his projection?

Jacoby Ellsbury recently won AL Comeback Player of the Year, and with good reason. His MVP-caliber performance really buoyed this offense when they lost key contributors like Kevin Youkilis. He is definitely one of the bright spots in a season filled with bad news.

Here is what we projected for him coming into 2011, based on his previous three years of performance:

Age	AB	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	SB	Avg	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRAA
27	478	18	6	8	36	63	42	0.280	0.336	0.390	0.347	11.5
28	482	18	6	8	36	63	40	0.280	0.336	0.389	0.346	11.0
29	481	18	5	8	36	62	38	0.279	0.335	0.387	0.344	9.9
30	476	17	5	8	34	61	36	0.278	0.333	0.384	0.341	8.1
31	465	16	5	8	32	59	33	0.276	0.330	0.379	0.336	5.7
32	449	15	4	7	30	56	31	0.273	0.325	0.373	0.331	2.9
33	429	14	4	7	27	53	28	0.269	0.319	0.366	0.325	-0.1
34	404	12	4	6	24	50	26	0.265	0.312	0.358	0.318	-3.2
35	375	11	3	5	20	46	23	0.261	0.305	0.348	0.310	-6.1

Boy does that look dumb now. Once we factor in his amazing 2011, the projection now looks like this:

1-14-2011: The Yankees and Soriano, 2011 draft picks, Sox offseason pays off

The Yankees signed a pretty good reliever in Rafael Soriano yesterday, but curiously, I’m fairly positive about it. I’m happy because his 3-year, $35M deal (with TWO opt-out clauses) smacks of desperation. It’s like they were trying to copy what we did with Bobby Jenks, but botched it badly. Nobody pays this much to a setup guy, but somehow Scott Boras made the Yankees just look foolish. Brian Cashman had to directly go back on his word to sign Soriano, and they gave up their first-rounder to Tampa Bay in order to do it. They also ensured that we would get Texas’ first-round pick for signing Adrian Beltre. The Yankees haven’t improved this offseason, and they have some heavy payroll commitments coming up. I’m not saying that Soriano won’t make them better. He’s a very good player when healthy. But they could end up flushing quite a bit of change down the toilet on this deal.

We’ve done pretty well on gathering draft picks while also improving as a team (getting younger and more athletic). Only Tampa Bay has acquired more early picks, but I’m of the opinion that they will take a pretty big step back this year, so they’ll need them.

The Red Sox offseason has already paid off, as far as upper management is concerned. They are selling tickets like crazy, and ESPN has picked up four of their early games on Sunday nights. They are relevant again. They also have some ticket voucher giveaways coming right up.

Hideki Okajima has resigned with Boston for one year on the team’s terms. I still think he could be mildly effective, though we probably won’t see any more low-2 ERAs from him anytime soon. I feel somewhat comfortable with him and Felix Doubront as lefty options out of the pen, though even the righties don’t have terrible splits against lefties.

12-6-2010: Gonzalez announced, who’s next?

Adrian Gonzalez was introduced at a press conference this morning, and he gushed all the usual things from a free agent who’s just signed a fat deal: it’s his (second) dream to play here, etc. He seems like a smart player, and knows that he needs to hit the ball in the air to be successful in Fenway. It seems that the Sox have an extension agreement in place with Gonzalez already, and it will likely be announced just after Opening Day. His agent says they’re finding a nice compromise, so I’d expect something along the lines of 6 years with a vesting option worth $130-150M.

Theo Epstein mentioned in his comments that he would like to add a right handed outfielder. But with Jayson Werth signing a massive deal with the Washington Nationals yesterday, the question is who? Carl Crawford, the top free agent outfielder, is left-handed and his signing would arguably tilt the lineup too far to the left, making us vulnerable to strong lefties, like CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee, who could be teammates again next year. Also, we have to be thinking about the future, as players like Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz start earning real money. I’m not sure we can absorb another 6-7 year maxed out deal without letting everyone start walking in a couple of years. So maybe we want to shoot for a short-term option or a second-tier target (after all, we do have Josh Reddick and Ryan Kalish, who look just about Major League ready).

12-03-2010: Varitek re-signs, non-tenders, more Hot Stove

Varitek back for one more dance

The Red Sox brought back 39-year old team captain Jason Varitek on a one year deal worth $2M plus incentives. Given Tek’s lack of production the past two years, it’s safe to say that he would not have found that money elsewhere. But given the Sox’ catching situation right now, I think it’s a good idea.

I have Varitek projected at .221/.305/.377 for 2011, a wOBA of just .309. But historically, he has performed well at the beginning of the year. We could use a good April/May from him as we use that time to evaluate Jarrod Saltalamacchia a bit more. Let’s get something straight – Theo Epstein did not sign him to be our starting catcher. I also don’t think that we will enter 2011 with Saltalamacchia atop our depth chart. There will be another move because…

2011 Non-Tenders

This week was the deadline for teams to offer contracts to arbitration-eligible players, and a good number of them hit the free agent market yesterday. There are some catchers you might recognize on that list, including Russell Martin (former All-Star with the Dodgers) and Dioner Navarro. I think the Sox will be in on one of these guys. Just for fun, my 2011 projections for them:

Name	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	SB	Avg	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA
Martin	492	132	22	2	11	72	60	70	77	11	0.268	0.366	0.387	0.754	0.350
Navarro	382	95	19	1	8	41	42	30	54	2	0.248	0.308	0.362	0.670	0.305

11-9-2010: Sox reach out to Werth, Martinez a must sign, Adrian when?

According to Gordon Edes, the Red Sox have touched base with agent Scott Boras to express their interest in free agent outfielder Jayson Werth. The massive 6-5, 220 Werth will be 32 next season, and is reportedly seeking a contract approaching that of Matt Holliday’s 7-year, $120M deal (with an option year) last offseason. He is athletic and runs well, so he figures to age a bit better than the average 31-year old. Still, giving a player his age more than 4 years, $72M seems like a mistake. That gap makes me think that Werth will be a hard sign for the Red Sox, who have more pressing needs in the infield anyway. Regardless, they have to keep the door open and see what way the market goes; that’s their modus operandi.

My projections have Werth hitting .258/.346/.467 with a .369 wOBA in Fenway (think roughly Jason Bay with better defense and no knee issues). As a right-handed bat with some power, he looks like a direct replacement for Adrian Beltre in the lineup, but he would walk more, in the Red Sox style of play. Like most top Boras guys, don’t expect Werth to sign anytime soon.

Due to the weakness of the catching market, the staff at BP believe that Victor Martinez is a must-sign for the Red Sox. That would be true, but the Sox have been exploring the trade market for catchers for several years now, so it’s not like they are without any alternatives. However, Martinez is the best offensive one, by far.

2010-2011 Offseason: Third base

The other big position of concern this offseason is third base, where Adrian Beltre is going to free agency after a tremendous season. There’s no chance that he won’t go there; his agent is Scott Boras. Beltre, who will be 32 next season, will likely command at least 3 years and $12-13M per year. He is also a Type A free agent and would cost a draft pick to any other team that signs him.

The in-house options at third are limited, leaving us with little leverage in negotiations; Jed Lowrie might make a respectable third baseman if he can stay healthy, but his bat plays much better as a middle infielder. With no other Major League-ready prospects, the Sox may be forced to look at a trade if Beltre leaves.

Yes, we have Kevin Youkilis, who can play a reasonable third base and is willing to do whatever the team needs, but moving our Gold Glove first baseman back across the diamond should not be option number one. This only makes sense if we acquire a big bat who can only play first base. I think this option only occurs if we can’t re-sign Victor Martinez at catcher.

Prediction

There are not a lot of top third base options available this offseason; Beltre is head and shoulders above the rest of his free agent class, and Boras will leverage that into a lucrative three- or four-year deal. The only option to keep him at the top of his value is to overpay, which the Sox are reluctant to do. The other name you would know is the soon-to-be 33-year old Aramis Ramirez, who is coming off of a .241/.294/.452 debacle of a season (a classic buy low scenario, which Theo Epstein likes, but could seriously backfire).

There are some rumblings that the teams who want Beltre the most might not be desirable destinations for him, but there are a lot of teams (like the Angels, Tigers and Rangers) who are in position to spend big, and the bidding could get fierce. Either the Sox pony up to keep Beltre, or they go with a stopgap veteran for a year or two. Those available names include Ramirez, Ty Wigginton and Jhonny Peralta. If you go this route, you would need to add some big-time offense elsewhere, such as Carl Crawford or Jayson Werth in left field.

9-14-2010: Looking ahead to 2011

Sorry for the lack of postings, but I haven’t really been too motivated to write about the Red Sox, with even their mathematical playoff chances circling the drain. Can you blame me? It’s kind of hard to get excited about Darnell McDonald and Yamaico Navarro on a nightly basis. Now I know how Kansas City fans feel!

What went Wrong

If you’ll remember, we came into 2010 with a lot of confidence, and projected for a close finish with the Yankees for the divisional pennant. If you ask me what happened to this year’s team, I’d certainly cite injuries, but beyond that, we got off to a terrible start in April, while the Yankees and Rays roared out of the gate. Yeah, Mike Cameron and Jacoby Ellsbury were on the shelf then, but we didn’t have an excuse to play under .500 baseball that month. Add Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia and Josh Beckett to that injury list, and you can see where even an incredibly hot May and June wasn’t enough to salvage the season. The bullpen was really bad, yes, but I think that’s more a function of the starters not doing well early on (4.86 ERA in April, 4.36 ERA in May) and burning out the bullpen. Hideki Okajima’s injuries and subsequent ineffectiveness was also a huge blow to this relief corps.

Links 8-26-2010: Consensus building, Damon, Lackey and lefties, Reddick back

I’ve been saying it since Dustin Pedroia went back on the DL, but it appears that more and more people are priming their forks to stick into the 2010 Boston Red Sox. The playoffs are a tough sell at this point, but hey, anything can happen in baseball.

For every good thing that happens to the Sox, it seems that there is a black lining to it. Jon Lester was cruising along, but then he gets blown up in his last start. Josh Beckett is back, supposedly healthy, but he still looks shaky. Clay Buchholz has been dominating, but Patrick Sullivan reminds us that his numbers rest on a lot of “luck”. Hideki Okajima is being held at Pawtucket because of his last poor outing. They don’t want him to come to the Majors on a bad note.

There are some interesting names on the waiver wire, though I don’t expect the Red Sox to be able to land any of them. Scott Downs and Manny Ramirez are both out there. I’d like to add Downs, but no way would I claim Manny. The White Sox are reportedly interested in getting him, though. And guess what else? Man-Ram wants another contract extension. Surprise, surprise.

Unlike some, I was not at all surprised at Johnny Damon’s decision not to return to Boston. With the Sox on the very fringe of contending, what reason does he have to come here? The management refused to pay him what he thought he was worth, the fans have given him an icy reception several times, most of his “idiot” friends have moved on, and most of all he knows how this club works. If he came here, he’d be a part-time guy who would only play against righties. I don’t blame him in the least, though I think he could definitely help this team right now.

It appears that more than one observer has commented on John Lackey’s inability to put away left-handed hitters this season. Southpaws have hit .308/.381/.435 off of him this year, but righties hit him to the tune of .301/.353/.493 back in 2008. Splits can be tricky, because of sample size. We don’t know if this is a real problem or just a blip due to a bad year, and we won’t know until at least next year.

Links 7-14-2010: Injury updates, the bullpen, Beltre going forward, Ellsbury rift, the future

Here is the latest on our walking wounded, from the Extra Bases blog: Dustin Pedroia has a CT scan scheduled for Friday, which should tell us more accurately how long it will be. Clay Buchholz will have a rehab start on Friday at Pawtucket, then rejoin the rotation on their West Coast trip next week. Victor Martinez’ hand is still so swollen that he can’t even put on the catcher’s mitt. That’s a big problem. Josh Beckett also had a solid rehab start for Pawtucket, allowing two hits and one run in four innings of work.

As we ponder what to do about our bullpen, Daniel Bard claims that he doesn’t feel overworked at all, and it looks like Michael Bowden will be up in short order to join the corps. The Toronto Blue Jays have made it known that several of their relievers are available via trade. Of the options, I like Scott Downs as a lefty who can fill the role formerly held by Hideki Okajima, who is still battling his achy back.

Adrian Beltre is finally getting some recognition for his superb season so far, after nearly signing with Oakland. He’s pretty much earned Type A free agent status, and looks to ink a huge deal this offseason. The Red Sox have not tried to re-sign him, and Boras is unlikely to agree to any deal with the way Beltre is playing.

There is very clearly a problem between Jacoby Ellsbury and the Red Sox. Ells thinks he’s been wronged by the club, and the players think he’s taking it out on them. Sugar-coat it all you want, Scott Boras, but things are not happy in Jacoby-town these days.

7-5-2010: 5 Sox All-Stars, vote for Youk, the importance of Cash, injury updates

Even though the popular vote wasn’t too Boston-friendly, the AL roster voted by the players is replete with Red Sox, including Adrian Beltre, Clay Buchholz, Jon Lester, Victor Martinez, David Ortiz and Dustin Pedroia. Beltre, Buchholz and Lester are all first-time selections, and Ortiz making it is a great tribute to his turnaround season (it still doesn’t mean we should exercise his team option, though). Kevin Youkilis still has an outside shot of making it if enough fans vote for him in the special runoff vote. Support Youk here!

Speaking of Beltre, his standout season will likely earn him comeback player of the year and Type A free agent status. Should Scott Boras take him to free agency, he will land a hefty free agent deal which I don’t see the Sox matching. For all his ability, the guy just doesn’t seem to fit in with this team’s style of play or personality. It would also be a mistake to expect a repeat of this season next year, even in Fenway.

The Replacements

With our top two catchers hitting the DL in the same week and a mess of injuries at Pawtucket, our catching depth had never been so poor. Luckily for the Sox, Kevin Cash had just been DFA’d by Houston. It’s not that Cash is anything at the plate (his lifetime batting line looks like a typical pitcher’s line), but his familiarity with the Sox staff and Tim Wakefield’s knuckleball in particular made it a no-brainer to go get him. We were lucky, because I could see us losing a lot of games in this stretch without him.