4-20-2011: Saltalamacchia struggling to earn the trust of the staff

Terry Francona hinted that Jarrod Saltalamacchia may not have the full confidence of the pitching staff:

I think sometimes a catcher can put down the same signs, but depending on who it is, the pitcher throws with a little more commitment. I think Tek has earned that. It’s always going to be hard for the next guy to come in to compare themselves, the way the game’s being run, with Tek.

I’ve said all season that I think this is a problem, as can be seen by Salty’s catcher ERA this year (7.14) versus that of Jason Varitek (2.40). I can see how it would be hard for anyone as the new guy to follow a guy who’s caught four no-hitters. However, Victor Martinez wasn’t the best defensive catcher, and they had no problem throwing to him last year. Salty may just not have the ability to win over his staff, and that’s a problem. If things don’t change soon, I’d like them to give Mike McKenry a look when they have an opportunity (perhaps when Varitek goes on the DL in June or whenever).

Links 12-1-2010: The plan forming, Victor as a DH, compensation picks, trading Scutaro, Guerrier, Parraz, Spring Training schedule

It’s starting to look like a near certainty that the Red Sox will sign one of either Jayson Werth or Carl Crawford. As I’ve said before, I like the idea of adding Werth as a long-term right-handed bat with some punch, though Crawford would be a good add as well. Werth is pretty good on defense as well, while Crawford is stellar in that category. Signing either would go a long way towards replacing the offense we’ve lost from last year’s team.

Yes, it’s been a slow offseason so far, but before you start complaining about how the Sox never spend money, read this. They are simply waiting it out. Werth is a Boras client, so any offer made now would simply be used as leverage to drive up the price. Werth will almost certainly not sign before Christmas, and may even hold out until late January.

11-24-2010: Projection for Victor Martinez’ 4-year deal

What will Victor Martinez look like offensively for the Tigers over the four years he signed for? Here’s our “true talent” evaluation, adjusted for age, park, division and regressed to the average AL catcher:

Year	Age	PA	AB	H	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	SB	Avg	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA	wRAA
2011	32	511	463	135	16	62	75	45	55	0	0.291	0.357	0.450	0.807	0.360	18.0
2012	33	493	449	129	15	59	71	41	52	0	0.287	0.349	0.440	0.790	0.353	13.8
2013	34	469	430	121	13	55	66	37	49	0	0.282	0.341	0.429	0.770	0.344	9.0
2014	35	439	406	112	12	50	60	32	46	0	0.276	0.332	0.415	0.747	0.334	4.1

You be the judge as to whether this expected performance is worth $50M.

And, just for comparison, what we might expect from Jarrod Saltalamacchia over the next four seasons:

Year	Age	PA	AB	H	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	SB	Avg	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA	wRAA
2011	26	286	257	63	7	33	32	27	80	1	0.244	0.320	0.386	0.706	0.320	-1.5
2012	27	288	258	63	7	34	33	27	79	1	0.245	0.322	0.389	0.712	0.322	-0.8
2013	28	287	257	63	7	34	33	27	78	1	0.245	0.322	0.391	0.713	0.323	-0.7
2014	29	283	254	62	7	33	33	27	77	1	0.244	0.321	0.390	0.711	0.322	-1.0

Sure, there’s no comparison in terms of overall production, but Saltalamacchia will conservatively fall short by about 4 WAR over four seasons, or about one marginal win per season with the bat. Let’s say they are about even defensively. Then that’s not too bad of a deal, given that Salty will make perhaps one-tenth of Victor’s salary over this period of time.

That’s $45M we can invest in other players, which should be enough to squeeze out at least one WAR per season. I know, this is only a likely scenario, and it could turn out much worse for the Sox, but it could also look much better if Salty blooms into a good big league catcher. The pains and risks of being a baseball analyst…

Links 11-24-2010: V-Mart reactions, catcher

The news yesterday of Victor Martinez signing with the Tigers has ignited a lot of skepticism about the Red Sox for next season, but it’s still WAAAY too early to judge this offseason. It’s hard to keep perspective on the situation when Detroit’s winning bid was just $8M more than our best offer; for a team like the Red Sox, that’s easily absorbed over four seasons. They simply didn’t like him as their catcher for the long haul, and we have plenty of other needs to fill.

What do we do about catcher now? Everyone is agreed that we have some potentially good options in the pipeline, but we’ll need to sign someone for the short-term while we wait to see what exactly we have in Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Salty knows he needs to capitalize on this opportunity; let’s just hope he doesn’t pressure himself too much, because the fans won’t cut him much slack, I’m afraid. With the departure of Martinez, catcher could become our new shortstop, that seemingly unfillable position that leaves fans dissatisfied every year.

11-23-2010: Martinez signs with Detroit

There are widespread reports today that the Detroit Tigers are ready to sign Victor Martinez to a 4-year, $50M contract. The annual value of the deal is $12.5M, and ranks as one of the largest free agent contracts for a catcher in baseball history. Reportedly, he had competitive offers on the table from the Orioles and the White Sox, while the Red Sox maxed out their offer at 4 years and $42M. Peter Gammons was right again.

Let’s get something straight – the Red Sox weren’t outbid; they passed. Epstein could have easily matched the Tigers’ offer, but he just didn’t want Martinez as our catcher for the next four years. The Tigers are willing to live with Martinez’ defense. A very tough stance for Theo to take in this town, but kudos to him. Let’s see what happens over the next 4 seasons, and don’t forget the two compensation picks we’ll get as a result of this signing.

11-19-2010: Crazy offseason scenario number 1

All of this Justin Upton talk has me thinking. The Red Sox need two bats to replace Adrian Beltre and Victor Martinez, and it’s generally thought that we will likely sign a free agent corner outfielder (Jayson Werth or Carl Crawford) and a corner infielder. What if, instead of blowing $100M on two good but aging players, we fill those spots via trade for good young players, utilizing our top prospects? Stay with me here.

Step 1. Send Clay Buchholz, Daniel Bard and Josh Reddick to Arizona for Justin Upton

I know, you’re saying WHAT? But hear me out.

11-18-2010: Beltre and Martinez projections

Adrian Beltre and Victor Martinez represent the top free agent bats at their respective positions this offseason. We have the payroll flexibility, so it seems like a no-brainer that we should re-sign both of them, right?

The problem is not the annual salary, but the number of years we would need in order to place a successful bid on these players. Oakland has reportedly offered Beltre 5 years and $64M. At the end of the deal, he will have played his 36-year old season. Do we really want to sign him for that many years? Martinez may also require 4-5 years to sign as well.

One way to help decide that is to look at aging curves and apply them to our projections for 2011 to get a year-by-year look at what Beltre could do over the term of that deal. Let’s take a look at how their true talent is likely to regress with age if they follow the same aging patterns as most top players in baseball.

Links 11-17-2010: Bullpen options, Sox cap offers to Beltre and Martinez, Justin Upton

The best-laid bullpen plans…

After a disastrous 2010 campaign, everyone acknowledges the need for a bullpen overhaul. However, relievers are famously volatile, and most teams regret free agent deals. That’s exactly why the Sox went out and got LHP Andrew Miller and then claimed RHP Taylor Buchholz on waivers. It turns out that he IS related to Clay Buchholz, BTW, though he’s only a distant cousin.

Theo Epstein has stated that he is not against doing a multi-year free agent deal for the right reliever. The ideal guy seems like LHP Scott Downs, who has had success in the AL East and can pitch to both lefties and righties. But he is a Type A free agent, which means we would owe our first-rounder to Toronto should we ink him. Brian MacPherson lists some non-Type A guys that are of interest, and I like Joaquin Benoit and Koji Uehara, but I don’t see Downs as a problem if we sign another Type A such as Jayson Werth, Carl Crawford, Adrian Beltre or Victor Martinez, since our first-rounder would go to someone else rather than Toronto.

Links 11-10-2010: Sox contact every free agent, offseason predictions, Crawford vs Werth

We should clear up something: just because the Sox have contacted Jayson Werth doesn’t mean they’ve targeted him as THE acquisition for the offseason. In fact, Theo Epstein tends to work like a shrewd hedge fund manager and plan for contingencies, diversifying his free agent portfolio. Basically the Sox have many possible plans of action, and which one they take is determined by the market. If the price for Werth climbs too high, they default to another plan with someone else. Accordingly, the Sox have contacted just about every major free agent already to try and gauge who would fit well and what their expectations are. This serves the double purpose of masking our true intentions, in case someone out there wants to bid us up.

Offseason predictions

The writers at MLB Trade Rumors have taken a stab at predicting where this year’s free agents will end up. Their consensus is that the Yankees will land Cliff Lee, and the Angels will nab Carl Crawford and Adrian Beltre. I agree about Lee; after re-signing Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera to pricey deals, I think the Yankees will land him (at over $20M per season) and basically be done. The Halos need to make a big splash, and while they love speed and are in dire need of the outfield defense Crawford would provide, they have other big problem areas, most notably third base and the rotation. I find it unlikely that they will land both Crawford and Beltre, who will command upwards of $30M/year between the two of them. The Angels featured the worst third base production in the Majors last year, and they have no internal options there. They love their Hispanic players, so my guess is Beltre goes with them (he likes the West Coast anyway).

11-9-2010: Sox reach out to Werth, Martinez a must sign, Adrian when?

According to Gordon Edes, the Red Sox have touched base with agent Scott Boras to express their interest in free agent outfielder Jayson Werth. The massive 6-5, 220 Werth will be 32 next season, and is reportedly seeking a contract approaching that of Matt Holliday’s 7-year, $120M deal (with an option year) last offseason. He is athletic and runs well, so he figures to age a bit better than the average 31-year old. Still, giving a player his age more than 4 years, $72M seems like a mistake. That gap makes me think that Werth will be a hard sign for the Red Sox, who have more pressing needs in the infield anyway. Regardless, they have to keep the door open and see what way the market goes; that’s their modus operandi.

My projections have Werth hitting .258/.346/.467 with a .369 wOBA in Fenway (think roughly Jason Bay with better defense and no knee issues). As a right-handed bat with some power, he looks like a direct replacement for Adrian Beltre in the lineup, but he would walk more, in the Red Sox style of play. Like most top Boras guys, don’t expect Werth to sign anytime soon.

Due to the weakness of the catching market, the staff at BP believe that Victor Martinez is a must-sign for the Red Sox. That would be true, but the Sox have been exploring the trade market for catchers for several years now, so it’s not like they are without any alternatives. However, Martinez is the best offensive one, by far.