Even more on Mike Lowell


For those of you still not convinced about Mike Lowell’s value:

Here’s another way to figure out a player’s value based on expected WARP-2 and current players and salaries. You simply plot what players are worth, and how much they are getting paid, and the trendline will give you a rough guideline for player value. You should look at best comps in terms of age/years of service as well. Free agents are expected to always sign somewhere above the trendline, BTW, given younger players’ salaries.

Name 			Age	3yrWARP2	2007$M
Alex Rodriguez		31	11.2		27.0
David Wright		24	10.7		 1.0
Miguel Cabrera		24	10.5		 7.5
Ryan Zimmerman*		22	 9.5		 0.4
Brandon Inge		30	 7.6		 4.9
Mike Lowell		33	 7.5		 9.0
Chipper Jones		35	 7.3		11.0
Aramis Ramirez		29	 7.3		 8.0
Adrian Beltre		28	 6.8		11.5
Eric Chavez		29	 6.6		 9.0
Freddy Sanchez		29	 6.2		 2.8
Troy Glaus		30	 6.1		10.8
Scott Rolen		32	 6.0		12.0
Chone Figgins		29	 5.6		 3.5
Casey Blake		33	 5.5		 3.8
Joe Crede		29	 5.3		 5.0
Garrett Atkins		27	 5.0		 0.4
Melvin Mora		35	 5.0		 7.8
Ryan Braun*		23	 4.4		 0.4
Pedro Feliz		32	 4.4		 5.1
Alex Gordon*		23	 4.3		 0.4
Akinori Iwamura*	28	 3.9		 1.8
Edwin Encarnacion*	24	 3.8		 0.4
Chad Tracy		27	 3.6		 2.8
Ty Wigginton		29	 3.3		 2.7
Hank Blalock		26	 3.1		 4.8
Nick Punto		29	 2.9		 1.8
Kevin Kouzmanoff*	25	 2.1		 0.4
*Not a full 3-year WARP2 projection

So based on this study of third basemen, a linear trend line would give a salary value of $10.0M for someone of Lowell’s value in 2008 (remember, to sign a free agent, especially one as in demand as Lowell, you will likely have to go well beyond that number). I dropped the third basemen making the major league minimum for the correlation, because their salary is controlled regardless of their performance. Remember, also, that this conservative WARP includes his terrible 2005. Throw that year out, and his WARP goes to 9.0 and his expected 2008 value to $12.85M.

If he’s worth that much in REAL value to a team, it’s not hard seeing someone offering him a contract going to $15M per season. He’s a steady, solid guy with veteran savvy and leadership. He’s especially good with connecting English-speaking and Spanish-speaking teammates, as he is fluent in both languages. You know the Yankees will be dangling money if he reaches free agency. Lowell was drafted by and came up in the Yankees system, and might want a chance to play there.

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One Response to Even more on Mike Lowell

  1. Pat says:

    oh, please don’t let it be so. Lowell at third in NYC is a worst case scenario for RSN. New England would be torn

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