2008 Projections: Julio Lugo


Julio Lugo had a bad year in 2007. Or, more precisely, a very bad first half. It just made it worse that he had just signed a pretty hefty four-year free agent deal, and that he had been advertised as our new leadoff hitter. None of that panned out, unfortunately, and Lugo’s defense looked like merely a pale shadow of Alex Gonzalez in the hole (actually, even his bat paled in comparison to Gonzalez in 2007). So he didn’t do a whole lot to endear himself to Red Sox Nation.

But it wasn’t all doom and gloom for Lugo. As he got more comfortable here, Lugo’s performance improved dramatically. After a dismal .197/.270/.298 first half (yes, you read that correctly), Lugo turned it around after the All-Star Break, hitting a respectable .280/.322/.406/.728 the remainder of the season. And, he hit .286/.350/.395/.745 at Fenway Park. Still not really leadoff hitter stuff, but more than acceptable for a bottom-of-the-order guy. Again, the glove (and arm, especially) won’t dazzle anyone, but it was good enough (BP has him at -13 FRAA for the season, below average). Is there anyone else who looks at Lugo in the box and thinks he looks kind of unhealthy?

Lugo is set to earn $9M in 2008, which is generous for what he can do. I’ll be satisfied if he plays league-average defense and posts a line of .270/.335/.390, which is basically his career average. Look for 35-40 doubles, around 10 HR and far fewer RBI this year. Shortstops in the AL averaged only a .269/.322/.391 line in 2007 (thanks in part to to Lugo and John McDonald), so it won’t take much for him to meet/beat that. The projections all pretty much agree on what he’ll do in 2008.

Projection comps:

Marcels:	.263/.315/.385	9HR	55RBI
Bill James:	.266/.333/.380	9HR	57RBI
CHONE:		.267/.332/.388	8HR	54RBI
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2 Responses to 2008 Projections: Julio Lugo

  1. Pat says:

    Thanks for the interesting posts to help keep interest in the Sox through the winter.

    I have similar expectations for Lugo’s ’08 performance. I wouldn’t be surprised if his average ended up in the .280’s. That would be ideal, but besides his hefty price, I don’t mind Lugo’s norm.

    More 2008 projections, please! I request Drew.

  2. redsoxtalk says:

    Hey Pat, nice to hear that somebody’s enjoying this besides me. :)

    My plan is to work my way through most of the 25-man roster in January (pitchers and regular players plus maybe some key bench guys). It’d be nice if I to project Johan Santana in here, but I’m not real confident that’s gonna happen anymore…

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