2008 Projections: Jacoby Ellsbury

Jacoby Ellsbury came up and lit Red Sox Nation on fire last season. His combination of speed, defense and hitting has everyone excited about the possibilities. He hit .353/.394/.509 in limited duty last season, and brought energy and excitement in every game he played. He stole 9 bases in just 33 games (and wasn’t caught once), which projects out to 43-44 SB over a full season. He went on to perform extremely well in the postseason, hitting .360/.429/.520 and an incredible .438/.500/.688 in the World Series. This kid is for real.

With the recent signing of Bobby Kielty, it seems like things are moving toward a trade of Coco Crisp. If that happens, we can look forward to about 150 games of pure adrenaline. He is already a pretty good defender, and will probably progress to be nearly Coco’s equal with experience (the one knock on him is is weak arm). To be fair, it’ll take a little bit of time for Ellsbury to get fully up to speed in the Majors; he’s just 24 and has all of 33 games under his belt. I think a fair expectation of his 2008 would look like .285/.345/.400 with 7 HR and about 40 SB.

Projection comps:

Marcels: 	.308/.365/.473	7HR	35RBI	 9SB	237AB
Bill James:	.320/.374/.436	5HR	46RBI	42SB	463AB
PECOTA:		.287/.346/.395	5HR	52RBI	32SB	533AB
ZiPS:		.297/.349/.392	4HR	58RBI	43SB	549AB
CHONE:		.299/.353/.418	6HR	57RBI	36SB	512AB

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