2009 Preview: Expected Pythagorean record
January 9, 2009 1 Comment
You guys might have seen my previous post where I calculated runs scored and runs allowed and came up with a prediction for 2009. Well, I’ve re-calculated the numbers using an updated pitching rotation (including Brad Penny and John Smoltz) and my FantasyScope projections. And our updated projection looks like this…
Our offense is predicted to score 936 runs in an ideal case. That is almost exactly what it was prior to last season, and we ended up scoring 835 runs. I have assumed this will stay the same.
The rotation now projects to a 4.08 ERA in 1069 IP, and the bullpen clocks in at an ERA of 3.73. That’s with a generous helping of 5.50 ERA replacement level pitching thrown in there, so this pitching staff can be pretty darn good this season.
I think our defense may improve slightly, but you just never know with injuries, so I will not adjust up for that. I actually failed to adjust for unearned runs in the initial calculation, but even with that correction I get 729 runs allowed with this pitching staff.
That significant run differential (which is quite conservative, BTW) would give us a .567 winning percentage and a 92-70 record in 2009. Good, but do you really think that will be enough to win the AL East? I don’t.
Lowell doing well
A bit of good news, Mike Lowell seems to be progressing in his rehab from hip surgery, he will be cutting it close to Opening Day.