Projections: 2010 Red Sox


Here are my early projections for this year’s team! I use a weighted three-year projection which incorporates regression, batted ball data and historical rate statistics. I have not made any adjustments for age or playing time as of yet. More details on my methodology at my other site, FantasyScope Baseball Blog.

Batters

Name Pos HR RBI SB BA OBP SLG OPS wOBA
Kevin Youkilis 1B/3B 25 97 5 0.292 0.393 0.514 0.907 0.402
J.D. Drew RF 19 66 3 0.273 0.386 0.487 0.873 0.386
David Ortiz DH 26 97 1 0.258 0.358 0.483 0.841 0.373
Dustin Pedroia 2B 15 73 18 0.300 0.369 0.451 0.820 0.369
Victor Martinez C/1B 17 87 1 0.291 0.369 0.453 0.823 0.369
Mike Lowell 3B 17 78 3 0.285 0.343 0.461 0.804 0.356
Jacoby Ellsbury CF 9 52 51 0.290 0.347 0.410 0.758 0.353
Jed Lowrie SS 3 39 4 0.260 0.334 0.391 0.724 0.329
Josh Reddick OF 4 14 1 0.252 0.312 0.429 0.741 0.326
Jason Varitek C 14 51 0 0.224 0.323 0.386 0.709 0.321
George Kottaras C 2 12 1 0.232 0.309 0.371 0.680 0.306
Jason Bay LF 30 106 11 0.263 0.366 0.490 0.856 0.383
Rocco Baldelli OF 5 19 3 0.238 0.309 0.392 0.701 0.319
Alex Gonzalez SS 10 45 3 0.254 0.304 0.392 0.696 0.311
Nick Green SS 7 36 3 0.234 0.314 0.365 0.678 0.305
Brian Anderson OF 5 22 4 0.234 0.310 0.367 0.677 0.305
Joey Gathright OF 2 24 11 0.262 0.326 0.319 0.645 0.298


Pitchers

Name IP W L ERA WHIP
Jon Lester 184.8 13 7 3.48 1.27
Josh Beckett 199.5 14 8 3.66 1.20
Daisuke Matsuzaka 110.7 8 6 4.27 1.49
Tim Wakefield 152.5 10 8 4.41 1.35
Clay Buchholz 86.3 5 6 4.53 1.43
Junichi Tazawa 4.58 1.40
Michael Bowden 4.84 1.44
Jonathan Papelbon 66.9 2 2 2.82 1.12
Ramon Ramirez 69.9 3 3 3.59 1.33
Javier Lopez 52.8 1 1 3.75 1.37
Daniel Bard 49.1 2 2 3.75 1.34
Manny Delcarmen 61.3 2 2 3.87 1.40
Billy Wagner 54.0 2 2 3.13 1.12
Takashi Saito 54.1 3 3 3.16 1.25
Hideki Okajima 62.4 1 1 3.54 1.23
Paul Byrd 96.6 6 6 4.74 1.42

Link: online spreadsheet with full projection numbers

I have included in-house talent at the top of each section, and potential free agents/losses at the bottom.

Losing Jason Bay will make a big dent in the offense, but this is still a pretty solid offense, providing we get someone above league-average in left field. It may not have felt like it at times, but Boston had the third-best offense in the AL in 2009.

We are losing a lot of talent out of the bullpen, but I fully expect them to bring Hideki Okajima back on a new contract, and those supplemental draft picks from losing Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito will be critical in rebuilding our farm system, should a Type A free agent be signed or a trade be made.

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5 Responses to Projections: 2010 Red Sox

  1. Jeff Carini says:

    Looks like they’re gonna need a #3 starter.

  2. Pat says:

    That team looks very, very good.

    I don’t expect Ortiz to do that well, and if he does, I will be floored.

    I expect to see a lot more innings out of both Daisuke and Buchholz. Though, I would be very pleased if their ERAs match your very fair projection.

    I don’t expect to see much more than 100IP from Wakefield.

    No Lowrie projection?

    I’m not sure about a number 3, but it does look like we need another starter.

    • redsoxtalk says:

      Ack! Missed Lowrie when I was preparing the spreadsheet. I’ll add him now.

      Ortiz is definitely a big question mark, but don’t forget that he hit .264/.356/.548 from June 2nd on with 27 HR and 81 RBI. I think he has a decent shot at hitting this projection; after all, how many 2-month slumps can a guy have? :)

      As I mentioned, these are not adjusted at all for playing time, so yeah, I’d expect something like 150-180 IP out of Dice-K and Buchholz. Wakefield might be fall in the 110-140 IP range. Agreed, a number 4 or 5 starter with some upside looks in order.

  3. redsoxtalk says:

    Not much performance to go on with Lowrie, given his lost season. So what you see here is in some ways a pretty highly regressed, somewhat blind guess.

  4. redsoxtalk says:

    I agree the lineup looks pretty decent in terms of OBP and wOBA, but there’s not a whole lot of power there. Among those listed players, that’s only around 150 HR. That would’ve ranked 10th out of 12 AL teams this year. We will need to replace a good fraction of Bay’s 30 HR if he walks.

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