2009-11-16 Links: Free agents and defensive evaluations, Sox top prospects, Varitek

Matt Holliday will likely get the biggest deal this offseason, but he’s no Mark Teixeira.

John Lackey might not be as good a signing as some think, warns FanGraphs.

FanGraphs gives an argument as to why trading for David DeJesus might be a better move than overpaying for a top free agent left fielder this offseason. Xavier Nady could be average with the bat, but don’t expect his arm to be what it used to be.

Before you go and get all excited about signing Jason Bay, Jermaine Dye or trading for Adam Dunn, you might want to read these evaluations of their defensive abilities. They are some of THE worst fielders in baseball, and should be relegated to DH duty. Here’s a defensive projection for 2010 based on 4-year, regressed UZR numbers. It’s downloadable as a spreadsheet, which is cool. Thanks to Jeff Zimmerman at Beyond the Box Score for that.

A lot of people have problems with UZR, and I think everyone knows it has its shortcomings. But don’t let those ESPN Web Gems influence the way you view a defender.

Kevin Goldstein has his top 11 Red Sox prospects for Baseball Prospectus subscribers. Spoiler: Ryan Westmoreland and Casey Kelly top the list. Also, don’t miss this David Laurila Q & A with Ryan Kalish. Marc Hulet has also given his short summary of what Sox prospects did this year.

A nice study outlining why Jason Varitek is struggling as much as he has. There’s not much hope of recovering once you can’t catch a fastball, any fastball.


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