2010 Preview: Updated Projections


The Red Sox seem to have made all of the major moves they are going to make this offseason. Now that our lineup looks to be all but set, let’s take a look at where we currently stand and what we might expect from this team this coming year.

Offense

Here are the projected numbers for our current team:

Name Pos HR RBI SB BA OBP SLG OPS wOBA
Kevin Youkilis 1B/3B 25 97 5 0.292 0.393 0.514 0.907 0.402
J.D. Drew RF 19 66 3 0.273 0.386 0.487 0.873 0.386
David Ortiz DH 26 97 1 0.258 0.358 0.483 0.841 0.373
Dustin Pedroia 2B 15 73 18 0.300 0.369 0.451 0.820 0.369
Victor Martinez C/1B 17 87 1 0.291 0.369 0.453 0.823 0.369
Jacoby Ellsbury LF 9 52 51 0.290 0.347 0.410 0.758 0.353
Mike Cameron CF 22 70 12 0.244 0.328 0.443 0.770 0.345
Marco Scutaro SS 9 58 11 0.274 0.360 0.390 0.751 0.343
Adrian Beltre 3B 15 61 11 0.266 0.316 0.428 0.744 0.334
Jed Lowrie SS/3B 3 39 4 0.260 0.334 0.391 0.724 0.329
Josh Reddick OF 4 14 1 0.252 0.312 0.429 0.741 0.326
Jason Varitek C 7 26 0 0.222 0.328 0.380 0.708 0.322

Marco Scutaro should provide additional runs over last season, and Mike Cameron will only provide part of Jason Bay’s contribution in the order. The addition of Adrian Beltre is actually a slight step down offensively from Mike Lowell. Altogether, the lineup is projected for 905 runs by David Pinto’s Lineup Analysis Tool, and following the 92% estimate, we find ourselves at about 832 runs on offense. If this kind of analysis can be believed, this means we are about 26 runs shy of last year’s offensive projection. This level of production would have still made us the 3rd most productive offense in the AL last season, ahead of Minnesota at 817 runs.

Pitching

And here are our current projections for the pitching staff:

Name IP W L ERA WHIP
Jon Lester 184.2 13 7 3.48 1.27
Josh Beckett 199.1 14 8 3.66 1.20
John Lackey 179.2 12 8 4.09 1.26
Daisuke Matsuzaka 138.1 10 8 4.27 1.49
Tim Wakefield 122.0 8 7 4.41 1.35
Clay Buchholz 151.1 9 10 4.53 1.43
Junichi Tazawa 4.58 1.40
Michael Bowden 4.84 1.44
Jonathan Papelbon 66.9 2 2 2.82 1.12
Hideki Okajima 62.4 1 1 3.54 1.23
Ramon Ramirez 69.9 3 3 3.59 1.33
Daniel Bard 59.0 3 3 3.75 1.34
Manny Delcarmen 61.3 2 2 3.87 1.40
Scott Atchison 30.2 1 1 4.14 1.40

With the addition of John Lackey to an already strong rotation, that is some serious certitude from that rotation (and a 4.02 ERA). Between our top six guys, we expect something like 975.1 IP, and that’s all you typically need in a season. These six relievers are expected to provide 350 IP. Add in another 120 IP of 5.50 ERA innings, and we arrive at a bullpen ERA of about 4.05, very acceptable. That means a staff ERA of 4.03, which if we achieve that, would be a major accomplishment.

Defense

We haven’t even gotten to the good part yet. The Red Sox were close to last in defensive efficiency last season, and we brought in two of the best fielders of the past decade in Cameron and Beltre to remedy that. With the switch of Jacoby Ellsbury to left, the Red Sox will feature an impressive outfield, probably one of the top two or three in the Major Leagues. Ells plays the corners much better than he did CF last season, and Jason Bay was just abysmal in left, so we could be looking at a net gain of +30 UZR or more. In the infield, swapping out Lowell with Beltre means about a +20-run swing on the UZR scale. Again, this will be a very strong defensive unit, aside from catcher. So even if our improved defense saves only half of those runs, it should easily result in about 2 extra wins from defense alone.

Outlook

All told, we are looking at a total of about 832 runs scored to 704 runs allowed, which translates into a run differential of +128. That puts our Pythagorean record at about 94-96 wins (depending on defense), right where Epstein wants it. The improved pitching ought to give opponents plenty of headaches in the postseason, and with Jed Lowrie and the addition of Bill Hall, we also have a deep and talented bench with some upside. We can’t outslug the Yankees, so we’re going to have to take a different tack. Let’s see how it pans out.

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3 Responses to 2010 Preview: Updated Projections

  1. redsoxtalk says:

    Oops, left off Hermida: 7 HR, 27 RBI, 3 SB, .263/.345/.413/.758, .343 wOBA in 224 AB.

    That still shouldn’t change the overall run expectation, given he’s a platoon guy barring a breakout year.

  2. Pingback: 2010 Preview: Updated projections Jan 21 « Red Sox Talk

  3. Pingback: 12-23-2010: Sox offense in good shape for 2011 « Red Sox Talk

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