Links 2-11-2010: Gaby Hernandez claimed, Beckett discussion, Spring is in the air, playoff odds


The Red Sox claimed 23-year old RHP Gaby Hernandez off waivers from the Seattle Mariners yesterday. Robert Manuel was designated to make room on the 40-man roster. Hernandez has good size at 6-3, 215 and throws in the low- to mid-90s with a cutter and a power slider and is known for a very good curveball (it was rated the best in the Marlins’ system back in 2007), though he’s had trouble commanding it. He’s got pretty decent stuff and doesn’t give up many HRs, but he’s struggled at the higher levels of the minors, and especially with lefties. Read Theo Epstein’s comments on him here. He’s got two option years left, so he’s expected to join the rotation at Triple-A Pawtucket.

What should we pay to re-sign Josh Beckett? Curt Schilling says whatever it takes. Rob Bradford warns that the shoulder could be an issue down the line. One thing I’d point out is that pitching in the AL East, and particularly in Fenway, has inflated Beckett’s numbers quite a bit. Make no mistake, he is an elite pitcher who’s perfectly suited to the atmosphere here. He’s also pitched well here at below market value, so I’d be fine with overpaying him a bit to keep playing here for 3-4 more years.

Only one more day until the equipment trick leaves for Florida, hailing the coming of Spring Training! Some Red Sox have already reported to Fort Myers, which means we’ll be getting more Red Sox coverage in the coming days.

Derek Jeter says he likes his team’s chances of repeating as World Series champs this year. If you just look at their starting lineup, that looks like a good bet; however, this Yankee team has some of the worst depth in years. All it takes is one or two guys to go down, and they are in big trouble. I have some data suggesting that the Red Sox might actually have a slight edge in offense this year; that will follow in an upcoming divisional preview post. Beyond the Box Score looks at playoff odds from the 2010 PECOTA projections, and finds the Yankees to have a 66% chance of making the playoffs, while the Sox come in at 56%.

The Futures at Fenway games will be held on July 10 this year, featuring the High-A Salem Red Sox against the Potomac Nationals (Nationals affiliate) and the Single-A Lowell Spinners against the Jamestown Jammers (Marlins affiliate).

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One Response to Links 2-11-2010: Gaby Hernandez claimed, Beckett discussion, Spring is in the air, playoff odds

  1. Pat says:

    Over the past three years, Beckett has the second best xFIP in the majors at 3.28, right behind Lincecum at 3.19.

    His FIP in the same time frame is 7th best in the majors at 3.27, about the same as Dan Haren’s 3.26.

    With our revamped, elite level defense, I wouldn’t bet against Josh Beckett having what people would call, “a contract year”.

    Also, Beckett has been a bit worse at Fenway than on he road, posting a 3.05ERA away the past three seasons, compared to a 4.47ERA at home. I can’t see an obvious reason for this. His LD/GB/FB percentages are very similar to Jon Lester’s and Lester has been better at home then away.

    I wonder how heavily Theo weighs all of these factors in his mind.

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