11-24-2010: Projection for Victor Martinez’ 4-year deal


What will Victor Martinez look like offensively for the Tigers over the four years he signed for? Here’s our “true talent” evaluation, adjusted for age, park, division and regressed to the average AL catcher:

Year Age PA AB H HR R RBI BB SO SB Avg OBP SLG OPS wOBA wRAA
2011 32 511 463 135 16 62 75 45 55 0 0.291 0.357 0.450 0.807 0.360 18.0
2012 33 493 449 129 15 59 71 41 52 0 0.287 0.349 0.440 0.790 0.353 13.8
2013 34 469 430 121 13 55 66 37 49 0 0.282 0.341 0.429 0.770 0.344 9.0
2014 35 439 406 112 12 50 60 32 46 0 0.276 0.332 0.415 0.747 0.334 4.1

You be the judge as to whether this expected performance is worth $50M.

And, just for comparison, what we might expect from Jarrod Saltalamacchia over the next four seasons:

Year Age PA AB H HR R RBI BB SO SB Avg OBP SLG OPS wOBA wRAA
2011 26 286 257 63 7 33 32 27 80 1 0.244 0.320 0.386 0.706 0.320 -1.5
2012 27 288 258 63 7 34 33 27 79 1 0.245 0.322 0.389 0.712 0.322 -0.8
2013 28 287 257 63 7 34 33 27 78 1 0.245 0.322 0.391 0.713 0.323 -0.7
2014 29 283 254 62 7 33 33 27 77 1 0.244 0.321 0.390 0.711 0.322 -1.0

Sure, there’s no comparison in terms of overall production, but Saltalamacchia will conservatively fall short by about 4 WAR over four seasons, or about one marginal win per season with the bat. Let’s say they are about even defensively. Then that’s not too bad of a deal, given that Salty will make perhaps one-tenth of Victor’s salary over this period of time.

That’s $45M we can invest in other players, which should be enough to squeeze out at least one WAR per season. I know, this is only a likely scenario, and it could turn out much worse for the Sox, but it could also look much better if Salty blooms into a good big league catcher. The pains and risks of being a baseball analyst…

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: