11-24-2010: Projection for Victor Martinez’ 4-year deal
November 24, 2010 Leave a comment
What will Victor Martinez look like offensively for the Tigers over the four years he signed for? Here’s our “true talent” evaluation, adjusted for age, park, division and regressed to the average AL catcher:
You be the judge as to whether this expected performance is worth $50M.
And, just for comparison, what we might expect from Jarrod Saltalamacchia over the next four seasons:
Sure, there’s no comparison in terms of overall production, but Saltalamacchia will conservatively fall short by about 4 WAR over four seasons, or about one marginal win per season with the bat. Let’s say they are about even defensively. Then that’s not too bad of a deal, given that Salty will make perhaps one-tenth of Victor’s salary over this period of time.
That’s $45M we can invest in other players, which should be enough to squeeze out at least one WAR per season. I know, this is only a likely scenario, and it could turn out much worse for the Sox, but it could also look much better if Salty blooms into a good big league catcher. The pains and risks of being a baseball analyst…