8-29-2011: The Dodgers and Andre Ethier

There has been a pretty public rift recently between Andre Ethier and the Dodgers, and the cash-strapped club may look to unload him this offseason, according to this speculative article over at FanGraphs. In addition to the strained feelings, he’s an injury risk coming off of surgery, and the kind of player the Dodgers may not be able to afford next season (or the year after that, when he reaches free agency).

Sox fans know about the lack of production we’ve had in right field this year, and how we’d like to add a right-handed power bat to this lineup (Ethier is both of those). We also know that J.D. Drew’s contract is expiring and we don’t have a solution in place in right field beyond Josh Reddick and Ryan Kalish right now. Ethier is probably an average right-fielder at best, but his production and estimated salary fits very nicely into the hole which will be left by Drew, and Ethier has said before that he’d love to play for Boston. It almost seems like it’s meant to be.

Matt Klaasen thinks that a grade C-type prospect might be a fair return for Ethier. At that price, I’d LOVE to add a bat like Ethier to this lineup, though realistically I think that other teams would also bid for him and drive the price up a bit. I’d be willing to trade a Reddick or a Kalish for Ethier if need be; what do you say?

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7-27-2011: What does Ryan Spilborghs have to offer?

One of the names that keeps coming up in trade rumors is the Rockies’ Ryan Spilborghs. He’s a 30-year old, medium-sized outfielder (6-1, 200) who bats righty and can play either corner; he can also run a bit, making him a fairly valuable bench player. He’s a second-year arbitration player who’s making $1.95m this year, and kind of extraneous on a Colorado team that has plenty of capable young outfielders.

Spilborghs has hit .273/.347/426 in Coors, but you can expect that to come down a bit with a move to the AL and to a park like Fenway.¬†Using our projections (updated with this year’s stats), we see him as a .264/.340/.403 hitter in a Sox uniform. He gets on base at a decent clip, but won’t give you too much in the way of batting average or power. That would still be a welcome improvement over J.D. Drew and his .219/.317/.305 batting line this year.

But the real question is whether Spilborghs is the right complement/platoon partner for Josh Reddick. His career split against lefties is .276/.361/.447, which is not bad but doesn’t really scream platoon to me. Looking at the defensive metrics, it looks like he is poor in right, and average in left. I’m not liking the fit for this guy so far; if we can acquire him for an organizational player, sure, let’s do it. But if he is going to cost a productive Major Leaguer, I say no dice.

7-13-2011: What about trading for Carlos Beltran?

J.D. Drew and our lack of production out of right field is concerning, I’ll grant you. One of the possible solutions has presented itself this week. The New York Mets, already 11 games back in the NL East, are trying to unload 34-year old Carlos Beltran and his weighty contract by the trade deadline. Beltran himself notes that he would approve a trade here.

Is he worth getting?

You may not hear as much about him these days except for his injury updates, but let’s get something straight – when healthy, Beltran is still an All-Star-level player. The last three years, he has posted a .292/.381/.482 triple slash line and a 135 OPS+. The problem is that he’s only managed 234 games in that time. If you have a problem with Drew never playing, you haven’t met Beltran yet.

That being said, he’s been healthy so far this year, and put up some great numbers (.382 wOBA and 146 wRC+). Beltran is a switch-hitter, which would help balance the lineup, and while he draws walks at a high rate, he strikes out far less than most power hitters (about 15% this year).

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6-21-2011: A quick note about Andrew Miller

Andrew Miller was pretty good last night. Apart from a costly mistake to Orlando Hudson, he threw the ball quite well for a depth starter. The big youngster has all the talent in the world, but has struggled with mechanics and confidence issues. His PITCHf/x data is not up yet on FanGraphs, so we have to rely on observations for now.

Miller took it into the 6th inning and was able to go out there and stick to his delivery for the most part; Terry Francona noted that even when he slipped out of his normal motion, he was able to correct himself and avoid extended wildness. Maybe the biggest encouragement was his fastball velocity, which had declined in previous years, but was sitting at 93-94 mph last night.

Peter Gammons said that the Yankees, among other clubs, were trying to get Miller to opt out on June 15, but failed when the Sox called on him this week. Miller might be one of those reclamation projects that pays some dividends. With Daisuke Matsuzaka lost for the season, that would be a welcome development.

12-16-2010: Sox sign Jenks and DiNardo, talking with Wheeler

Now this is the way an offseason is supposed to go. The Red Sox are striking early and often, inking two more stalwarts for the bullpen today. The Sox got former closer Bobby Jenks on a two-year deal worth $12M, and 31-year old lefty Lenny DiNardo on a minor league/split deal. Jesse Crain just signed a 3-year contract with the wrong color Sox (they love their hard throwing relievers over there in Chicago).

What’s Jenks got left?

Jenks is a classic case of a thrilling young arm that burst on the scene, was overused, and has experienced a decline as closer the past few years. Here are his last few seasons and what we project for him in Fenway for 2011, if he can stay healthy: Read more of this post

Links 12-15-2010: Guerrier to LAD, Albers, ticket$, WAR expectations, more

Now that Scott Downs has signed with the Halos and Matt Guerrier with the Dodgers, the Red Sox are hesitant to go three years with any of the remaining relievers, hence the lull. They are supposedly adding hard-throwing righty Matt Albers, who has never done well in the ERA department, but has a good sinker and pitched very well towards the end of last season. Hey, at least it’s a start.

The two big signings last week accomplished what ownership set out to do, as the Red Sox sold 238,818 tickets last weekend. That’s almost back up to post-2007 World Series level. Wow.

The Phillies are pretty darn good now that Cliff Lee is in the fold. Dave Cameron does the WAR analysis, and says that he expects the Red Sox to be right up there as a team that’s expected to win 98 games. “Expected” is the key word here.

 

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Links 12-14-2010: More about Crawford, Lee signs with the Phillies, Blanton?, Rule 5

The Red Sox signing of Carl Crawford was a pleasant surprise for the Nation. After telling reporters that he was done with his major acquisitions, Theo Epstein went and snatched Crawford, who was all but ready to sign with the Angels. Hard to remember that just a week ago, we were trying to decide between Josh Willingham and Magglio Ordonez. Here are his contract details. Maybe the happiest Red Sox is Jason Varitek, who doesn’t have to pretend to try to throw him out on the bases anymore. The Sox could do this deal because of all the money coming off of the books, and because they have the young talent and draft picks to remain sustainable for the years to come.

Red Sox Beacon thinks that the infield grass at Fenway will hurt Crawford’s ability to get infield hits. I think it will lessen the number of grounders that make it through, but I think it might actually help him on balls that roll dead in no man’s land.

Where will Crawford hit? He doesn’t really like to lead off, but he’s willing. If Jacoby Ellsbury can return to form, my guess is he’ll hit either third or fifth, since Dustin Pedroia is locked into the two hole (and Terry Francona likes going lefty-righty at the top).

I’m actually excited about Crawford playing next to Ellsbury in the outfield. That’s the fastest outfield in baseball. While people say that playing him in front of the Green Monster is a waste, it allows Jacoby to shift over towards right-center. It makes everyone better out there; not too many balls will fall in either alley as a result.

And then seemingly out of nowhere, the Philadelphia Phillies came in and swooped up one Cliff Lee yesterday, leaving the New York Yankees and Texas Rangers open-mouthed and empty-handed. Lee signed for less guaranteed money then either the Yankees or Rangers were offering, so perhaps he wasn’t psyched about playing in either place (count the option, and it’s actually better). And this is yet another piece of good news for the Red Sox. For a team that is loading up on left-handed hitting, it’s a godsend that Lee, one of the top lefties in baseball, will not be playing in our division or even our league. The Rays lost Crawford to us (plus half their bullpen), and the Yankees have few options with which to boost their rotation. This is a huge shift in the balance of power in the AL East.

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