9-20-2011: Don’t panic

Just a friendly reminder from Dave Cameron that a two-game lead is still pretty significant in this stage of the season.

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Links 12-15-2010: Guerrier to LAD, Albers, ticket$, WAR expectations, more

Now that Scott Downs has signed with the Halos and Matt Guerrier with the Dodgers, the Red Sox are hesitant to go three years with any of the remaining relievers, hence the lull. They are supposedly adding hard-throwing righty Matt Albers, who has never done well in the ERA department, but has a good sinker and pitched very well towards the end of last season. Hey, at least it’s a start.

The two big signings last week accomplished what ownership set out to do, as the Red Sox sold 238,818 tickets last weekend. That’s almost back up to post-2007 World Series level. Wow.

The Phillies are pretty darn good now that Cliff Lee is in the fold. Dave Cameron does the WAR analysis, and says that he expects the Red Sox to be right up there as a team that’s expected to win 98 games. “Expected” is the key word here.

 

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11-19-2010: Crazy offseason scenario number 1

All of this Justin Upton talk has me thinking. The Red Sox need two bats to replace Adrian Beltre and Victor Martinez, and it’s generally thought that we will likely sign a free agent corner outfielder (Jayson Werth or Carl Crawford) and a corner infielder. What if, instead of blowing $100M on two good but aging players, we fill those spots via trade for good young players, utilizing our top prospects? Stay with me here.

Step 1. Send Clay Buchholz, Daniel Bard and Josh Reddick to Arizona for Justin Upton

I know, you’re saying WHAT? But hear me out.

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Links 11-17-2010: Bullpen options, Sox cap offers to Beltre and Martinez, Justin Upton

The best-laid bullpen plans…

After a disastrous 2010 campaign, everyone acknowledges the need for a bullpen overhaul. However, relievers are famously volatile, and most teams regret free agent deals. That’s exactly why the Sox went out and got LHP Andrew Miller and then claimed RHP Taylor Buchholz on waivers. It turns out that he IS related to Clay Buchholz, BTW, though he’s only a distant cousin.

Theo Epstein has stated that he is not against doing a multi-year free agent deal for the right reliever. The ideal guy seems like LHP Scott Downs, who has had success in the AL East and can pitch to both lefties and righties. But he is a Type A free agent, which means we would owe our first-rounder to Toronto should we ink him. Brian MacPherson lists some non-Type A guys that are of interest, and I like Joaquin Benoit and Koji Uehara, but I don’t see Downs as a problem if we sign another Type A such as Jayson Werth, Carl Crawford, Adrian Beltre or Victor Martinez, since our first-rounder would go to someone else rather than Toronto.

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11-9-2010: Sox reach out to Werth, Martinez a must sign, Adrian when?

According to Gordon Edes, the Red Sox have touched base with agent Scott Boras to express their interest in free agent outfielder Jayson Werth. The massive 6-5, 220 Werth will be 32 next season, and is reportedly seeking a contract approaching that of Matt Holliday’s 7-year, $120M deal (with an option year) last offseason. He is athletic and runs well, so he figures to age a bit better than the average 31-year old. Still, giving a player his age more than 4 years, $72M seems like a mistake. That gap makes me think that Werth will be a hard sign for the Red Sox, who have more pressing needs in the infield anyway. Regardless, they have to keep the door open and see what way the market goes; that’s their modus operandi.

My projections have Werth hitting .258/.346/.467 with a .369 wOBA in Fenway (think roughly Jason Bay with better defense and no knee issues). As a right-handed bat with some power, he looks like a direct replacement for Adrian Beltre in the lineup, but he would walk more, in the Red Sox style of play. Like most top Boras guys, don’t expect Werth to sign anytime soon.

Due to the weakness of the catching market, the staff at BP believe that Victor Martinez is a must-sign for the Red Sox. That would be true, but the Sox have been exploring the trade market for catchers for several years now, so it’s not like they are without any alternatives. However, Martinez is the best offensive one, by far.

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Links 8-20-2010: Prospects post, playoffs slipping away, some bright spots, Papelbon

All told, the Red Sox spent a team record $10.66M on signing bonuses for this year’s draft class, guys who had not pitched a professional inning. It was a necessary infusion of talent into a farm system that has been drained of top prospects and had some of our best young guys get injured or tarnished this year. Considering we drafted well and signed all of our first 10 picks, evaluators have been picking the Sox draft as the best in our division this year.

Baseball America published their “best tools” series this week, and many Red Sox prospects got recognition, especially the superb defense currently at Double-A Portland.

Catching prospect Adalberto Ibarra did not pass his physical, so he renegotiated his contract with Boston to the tune of $700-800k. That’s a far cry from the $3M guaranteed deal that he originally agreed to. Sure, it saves money, but it must have been a significant issue for him to backtrack so much on the numbers.

Goodbye 2010?

Just when you think the Sox are ready to turn the corner, a day like yesterday happens. Dustin Pedroia is held out with foot pain, and Josh Beckett gets lit up by a so-so lineup in the Angels. Jarrod Saltalamacchia gets sent to the DL with a mystery leg infection. Add that up with no more Jacoby Ellsbury and Mike Cameron, and you’ve got a boring October looming.

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6-25-2010: Sox weather rocky series,

After coming into Colorado on a torrid streak of dominating Inter-League opponents, the Red Sox dropped two of three to the Troy Tulowitski-less Rockies this week. Tampa Bay continues to fizzle, but we need the Yankees to stay slow if we want to catch up.

Game 1: Jon Lester was good again, but the Sox just couldn’t get anything going versus Jhoulys Chacin. Chacin is a young talent, and he did a good job keeping the ball low and away from right-handed hitters, especially. We wasted a couple of bases loaded opportunities in this one… Dustin Pedroia made a nice play on that ball that took a bad hop on Kevin Youkilis, but that’s no rarity. He also backed up that bad throw in the 2nd on the swinging bunt nicely. I see him in the right position all the time, just the way you’re supposed to play… I don’t know why the injured Mike Cameron was trying to steal 2nd in the top of the 3rd; that must have been a botched hit and run or something, right? Normally I don’t complain about a strikeout for one of our pitchers, but that punchout in the 8th was clearly on a ball way outside. Hideki Okajima got lucky.

Game 2: Closer Jonathan Papelbon had a meltdown of historic proportions (again), blowing a 3-run lead on two HRs by Ryan Spilborghs and Jason Giambi in the bottom of the 9th. It was only his 2nd blown save of the year, but the problem was the way in which it happened. Papelbon blamed it on a “flat” flastball- hey, that’s exactly what he said after he blew his first save against the Yankees, another late-inning two-HR debacle of an outing… John Lackey continues his string of lackluster starts; if something’s not wrong physically, does he maybe have fat cat syndrome? Daniel Nava collected 3 hits and 3 RBI against Colorado’s Ubaldo Jimenez on a night where we needed someone to kickstart the offense. He’s quickly convincing me that he could stick as a 4th outfielder for us.

Game 3: What kind of player is Pedroia? He’s the kind who cares deeply about winning and can seemingly will his team to win at times. His 5-5, 3-HR, 5 RBI performance was the best hitting performance of his career, and it saved Papelbon’s tail, who blew his second straight save in as many nights. And don’t think this puts Pedey in the power hitter category, because he just doesn’t hit them like those guysBoth bullpens were horrible last night, reemphasizing our need for help out there… I keep thinking that Adrian Beltre has to come back to earth soon, but every time I say that, he goes out and gets two or three hits. Credit Theo Epstein for signing a capable player who is motivated to get a big contract next year, and the benefit we are reaping from him this season. Beltre’s numbers and overall quality of defense (despite the high number of errors) make him a legitimate All-Star candidate in my book… Josh Reddick needs to relax out there. He’s all tense about proving he can hit, and that’s making him, well, not hit.

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