2012: A New Manager, A New GM, A New Red Sox Talk Blogger.

Hi there, Red Sox (Talk) Nation,

My name’s Shane. I’m 24 and currently live in Melbourne, Australia. I’ve been playing ball since I was six and have been a member of Red Sox Nation since 2008. It’s almost in my blood. No, it is in my blood.

After seeing Donald depart as administrator of ‘Red Sox Talk’ at the end of 2011, unable to continue posting about the Sox, I was a little saddened. He proposed that someone could take over in his absence, which is how I’ve come to be writing here. I emailed him and he was happy to pass the reins on to me. I’ve blogged about the Red Sox before but my blog isn’t exactly the right place for baseball related information—it’s not that big in Australia yet. So I’m really happy to be doing this: blogging on an established site.

Basically, this is just a quick hello from me. I created a new email—redsoxtalk38@gmail.com—and a Twitter—@red_sox_talk. Each post will posted there, allowing more people to have there say on everything Red Sox.

Until you here from me, all the best. Go Sox.

SDH

Closing up shop

Well, the time has come. As I am emigrating to another part of the world next month, I’m afraid I have to shutter the doors on Red Sox Talk. If there are any interested parties that would like to keep it going, I’d be happy to hand off the admin rights, otherwise… Thanks very much for reading. Go Sox!

11-12-2011: Papelbon signs with the Phillies

Four years and $50M, that’s what it took for Jonathan Papelbon to bid adieu to the Red Sox. The deal reportedly contains a vesting option for a fifth year at a salary of $13M or so. GM Ben Cherington noted that the Red Sox were not really a match for Paps and what he wanted going forward, but he will be missed for at least the first couple of years, I would think. My suspicion is that the Red Sox shied away from any four year deal because of their ongoing concerns about his shoulder.

Papelbon was just a great, great player for this club at a time when we desperately needed a strong closer. His memorable performances and personality will be missed.

It’s not that Papelbon is irreplaceable – there are a lot of relievers out there who are closer material – but I would rather not be dealing with another unknown quantity coming into 2012. The scouts and the data suggest that Daniel Bard is the most ready option to take the ball in the ninth, and I’m glad that Bobby Jenks should still be around next year as well. We’ll still need two more solid arms back there, though.

The good news? Papelbon did not go to the Yankees or anyone else in the AL. Still, we could very well be seeing him in the World Series one day soon. I just hope that it’ll be later rather than sooner, because he is still a tough, tough matchup. Making a move to the NL is a great move for Papelbon, and he is likely to put up some staggering numbers there if he can stay healthy.

Thanks for the memories, Jonathan, and best of luck to you. At least until the World Series.

11-9-2011: Other areas of need and available free agents

Ben Cherington came out yesterday and suggested that the Red Sox were not likely to be big players on the free agent market this offseason. I think he’s being genuine, but even if they were, what good would it do them to come out and say that?

Here are the problem areas as I see them, and some free agent projections (all numbers assume a transition to the AL East).

1. Starting pitching

With so much money already committed to the rotation, I would be surprised if the Red Sox continued to throw money at this problem. Adding C.J. Wilson or Yu Darvish would be nice, but can we afford another $100M contract here, while our core players will be earning more and more every season? Signing a big arm to a long-term deal like that might mean saying goodbye to Jon Lester or Clay Buchholz once their current deals expire.

Name Age IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP
CJ Wilson 31 182.1 8.2 3.7 0.5 3.42 1.30
Roy Oswalt 34 161.6 7.1 2.4 0.9 3.93 1.30
Erik Bedard 33 64.2 8.7 3.5 1.0 3.94 1.36
Hiroki Kuroda 37 154.8 7.2 2.4 1.0 4.06 1.34
Mark Buehrle 33 189.1 4.9 2.1 0.9 4.10 1.39
Edwin Jackson 28 186.5 7.3 3.3 0.9 4.14 1.45
Freddy Garcia 35 109.2 6.1 2.7 1.0 4.27 1.40
Bartolo Colon 39 93.8 7.0 2.7 1.2 4.28 1.40
Javier Vazquez 35 167.3 8.0 2.7 1.3 4.41 1.33
Jeff Francis 31 123.2 5.6 2.4 0.9 4.58 1.46
Paul Maholm 30 161.2 5.5 3.2 0.9 4.68 1.54
Tim Wakefield 45 118.8 5.8 3.3 1.1 4.92 1.46

As you can see, bringing back Tim Wakefield really shouldn’t be an option; almost any free agent is likely to be better than him going forward. Erik Bedard has huge injury concerns, and that’s not what this staff needs. Hiroki Kuroda doesn’t seem likely to come out east. I think Roy Oswalt could be a fit if he’s willing to take a two-year deal at good money, and Buehrle would be a solid signing if we can get him for fewer than four years. Edwin Jackson scares me a little bit long-term, so I’d avoid offering him more than three years as well.

2. A closer/setup man (or two)

Read more of this post

11-3-2011: Replacing Papelbon

And now for part two of our free agent series. This time, we take a look at Jonathan Papelbon going forward. Paps had a really strong 2011 campaign, and he showed a new commitment to strength and conditioning which I believe reflected in his numbers: a 2.94 ERA and 12.2 K/9 against just 1.4 BB/9. His FIP was a miserly 1.53, easily the best of his career. His velocity did not slip at all from previous years, and if anything his fastball popped just a bit more, and he was able to locate his splitter down out of the zone, making it a hugely effective out pitch.

At the tender age of 30, he already has piled up 219 saves, and is quickly climbing the leaderboard in that category. Here’s what our projections see for him going forward, from ages 31-34:

Year IP HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 WHIP ERA
2012 67.3 0.69 2.95 10.38 1.16 2.95
2013 65.5 0.71 2.99 10.27 1.17 3.02
2014 63.0 0.73 3.05 10.13 1.19 3.11
2015 60.0 0.76 3.13 9.96 1.22 3.21

Papelbon actually looks like a pretty safe signing for the next 3-4 years. The question is, will that be enough? Most players will not outright tell you that they are out to break the bank – Papelbon has done exactly that, comparing himself to Mariano Rivera and insisting at every contract negotiation that he be paid more than any closer in history.

Read more of this post

11-3-2011: On the search for a manager…

I know you shouldn’t judge a book by its cover, but do you really want your next Boston Red Sox manager to look like THIS?

image courtesy NESN

image courtesy the Boston Globe

The guy might know his baseball, but he looks like a total dork (anyone remember Gary Cole as the boss from Office Space?). He also came off to me as really proud of himself for having a statistical system in place to evaluate players. Dude, it’s not new anymore. Everyone does it; the question is how good are you?

Not that I’m terribly excited by the prospect of Dale Sveum taking over, either; I remember not really liking him as a third base coach.. I’m really glad that they are continuing to interview candidates.

Why did they fire Terry Francona again?

11-1-2011: Replacing Big Papi

The two biggest expiring contracts we have to deal with this offseason are those of DH David Ortiz and closer Jonathan Papelbon. Even though we can’t imagine a Red Sox team without these two integral players, they are both Type A free agents. Letting them walk and signing a replacement would result in a net gain of one or two high draft picks, which is very tempting. Should they be replaced? Can they be replaced? And with whom should they be replaced are some of the biggest questions facing new GM Ben Cherington. Let’s look at the DH problem first. Paying less for a DH seems like a very good way to drop payroll, as no other team has been paying $12M/year for their DH (of course, no other team has been getting our production from the DH spot, either).

What will we be missing?

Ortiz has become THE definition of a prototypical designated hitter, producing a number of stellar seasons since being signed by Theo Epstein before the 2003 season. In his first 5 seasons with Boston, Big Papi produced slugging percentages around or exceeding .600, but has fallen to earth quite a bit since then. Entering his age 36 season, we face the tough choice of re-signing this face of the franchise, or possibly letting him go to a division rival.

Ortiz had quite a renaissance 2011, slashing .309/.398/.554 and smacking 29 home runs. He cut his strikeouts significantly, becoming a much more selective hitter in the process; he posted a career-best 83.3% contact rate. His .321 BABIP suggests that it wasn’t just lucky hits that inflated his numbers, but it was in large part actual performance. Even with the excellent year, here’s what we see for the aging slugger over the next three seasons:

Year AB HR RBI Avg OBP SLG wOBA wRAA
2012 543 27 97 0.266 0.354 0.488 0.374 29.9
2013 513 23 86 0.258 0.337 0.462 0.356 17.6
2014 475 19 74 0.249 0.320 0.434 0.336 6.0

Looking at these projections, you can see why a lot of people have been warning against anything longer than a two-year deal for Ortiz; it’s thought that he’s looking for three years. There’s a very good chance that his offensive value just crashes in 1-3 years, so I really would not sign him for more than two years plus maybe a team option. Read more of this post

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